Bromley vs Cambridge United: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL League One22 August 2026 16:00 CESTHayes Lane, Bromley16°11 km/h

BromleyLow block & direct

Cambridge UnitedLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Cambridge United (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 10.00 (+10 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Bromley 35%X 28%37% Cambridge United · 2

35%

28%

37%

Analysis: Bromley – Cambridge United

Oscar Nilsson · 17 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The clash between Bromley FC and Cambridge United is an intriguing puzzle of numbers and styles. Cambridge holds a slight edge with a 37% chance of victory compared to Bromley's 35%, suggesting a tight contest. The model’s probabilities highlight a potential draw at 28%, with the most likely scoreline being a 1-1 draw at 14%. The expected goals lean just in Bromley's favour at 1.19 versus Cambridge's 1.06. But don't let that fool you — Cambridge has been the more prolific team in terms of raw xG per match, boasting a robust 2.4 compared to Bromley's 0.99.

Bromley FC, known for their low defensive blocks and direct approach, has an advantage in speedy counter-attacks, generating 0.43 xG within eight seconds of winning the ball. Cambridge, despite their defensive frailties, matches this directness with an almost identical tactical setup but has struggled to convert quick turnovers into tangible threats, managing only 0.07 xG.

The rain expected during the match could be a dampener on the spectacle and scoring, further underscored by the model's 39% probability for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score. With such conditions, the match may lean towards a lower scoreline, perhaps even a 1-0 edge to either side.

Cambridge United's superior xPoints of 2.2 suggest they should edge this one, especially given their higher scoring potential when not constrained by conditions. However, the real betting value emerges with the under 0.5 goals market, provided by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, all offering odds of 10.0. The model rates this scenario at 11%, offering a 10% edge and tantalising value for the risk-inclined.

Bromley

Form W

League ranking xG #18xGA #13xT #21xP/match #10Points #8

Key players

Mitchell Bernard PinnockLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.28
Kamil Amadu ContehFxG 0.01 · xT 0.01
William Mbongo Desire HondermarckLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.04

Cambridge United

Form WLLLW

League ranking xG #1xGA #22xT #18xP/match #3Points #5

Match prediction: Bromley – Cambridge United

Predicted score matrix

Cambridge United →

Bromley →

0–011.0%

0–110.8%

0–26.0%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.7%

1–012.1%

1–113.7%

1–27.1%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.8%

2–07.4%

2–17.9%

2–24.2%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–02.9%

3–13.1%

3–21.7%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-012%
3.0-011%
4.0-111%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,19–1,06

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,561%

@1.72EV+5%

Over 2,539%

@2.02

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Cambridge United or draw (X2)62%
Under 3.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Cambridge United or draw (X2)62%
Under 2.5 goals61%
Benjamin Leo Knight to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals39%
William Mbongo Desire Hondermarck to score24%
Zak Dominic Bradshaw to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.511% probability@10.00BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
Under 0.511% probability@10.00BetssonEV+10%reference odds
Under 0.511% probability@10.00NordicbetEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bromley	X	2 · Cambridge United
Betsafe	2.65	3.30	2.52
Betsson	2.65	3.30	2.52
Nordicbet	2.65	3.30	2.52

Odds updated 19 Aug, 07:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Cambridge United win since 15 August — the odds have shortened from 2.75 to 2.52 (−8%).

1+8 %

40 %30 %

2.45 → 2.65

X+3 %

34 %24 %

3.20 → 3.30

2-8 %

41 %31 %

2.75 → 2.52

Over 2,50 %

51 %41 %

2.02 → 2.02

Betsson · 14 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bromley

Cambridge United

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bromley (1–0)

Cambridge United (3–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bromley

Cambridge United

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bromley

Cambridge United

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bromley	Cambridge United
Points	3	3
xPoints	1.5	2.2
xG per match	0.99	2.4
xGA per match	1.3	2.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.43	0.07
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.06

Playing style	Bromley	Cambridge United
Build-up efficiency	0.38	0.36
Field tilt	0.34	0.32
xT per match	0.52	0.69
xTA per match	1.1	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	25	31
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.41	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.17
Entries into the box per match	9	10
Entries into the box against	17	18
Pass completion %	0.52	0.61
Pass completion % under pressure	0.36	0.65
Passes per match	120	196
Passes against per match	304	480
Switches of play per match	13.5	19.6
Long balls per match	33	33

Set pieces	Bromley	Cambridge United
xG from free kicks	0	0.08
Corners per match	1.9	8.3
Corners against per match	11.6	5.2
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.1
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.42	0.8

Other	Bromley	Cambridge United
Throw-in control	0.77	0.83

The goalkeepers	Shamal Tyrell George (Bromley)	Jake Eastwood (Cambridge United)
Saves	8	3
Save %	100%	60%
xG prevented	100%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bromley vs Cambridge United according to our model?

The model gives Cambridge United a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bromley 35%, draw 28%, Cambridge United 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.