Leicester City vs Burton Albion: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL League One22 August 2026 16:00 CESTKing Power Stadium, Leicester15°11 km/h

Leicester CityPossession control

Burton AlbionPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Leicester City (51%)Best value by the model: 2 · Burton Albion @ 5.90 (+58 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Leicester City 51%X 22%27% Burton Albion · 2

51%

22%

27%

Analysis: Leicester City – Burton Albion

Erik Lindberg · 17 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Leicester City's current 51% chance of victory against Burton Albion seems somewhat generous when you dig into the details. Burton Albion, fresh from an impressive 7-game unbeaten league run, arrive at this fixture brimming with confidence. Despite Leicester City's control-oriented playing style and a home advantage, the xPoints tell a different story: Leicester City sits at a modest 0.6, contrasting sharply with Burton Albion's 2.0, highlighting the visitors' superior form and efficiency.

Burton Albion's defensive solidity is their hallmark, conceding just 0.43 xGA per match, a stark advantage over Leicester City's leaky 1.4 xGA. This defensive strength may well neutralize Leicester City's slightly better attacking xG of 1.1 versus Burton's 0.93. These numbers suggest a tightly contested affair, reinforcing the model's most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 in favor of Leicester City, both standing at 13%.

When dissecting both teams' proclivity towards possession control, this matchup promises a tactical duel rather than a goal-fest. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at a mere 43%, with both teams to score at 47%, underscoring the likelihood of a cagey affair. The expected goals (xG) also lean towards a low-scoring game, with Leicester City and Burton Albion expected to produce 1.44 and 0.95 xG, respectively.

Burton Albion may not have the historical clout of Leicester City, but the value betting angle is undeniably compelling. With odds offered at 5.9 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and the model valuing Burton Albion at 27%, there's a significant 58% edge for the punters backing the visitors. It's a high-risk play, but the numbers suggest it's worth a flutter for those looking to capitalize on Burton Albion's current resilience and Leicester City's defensive vulnerabilities. In this chess match of possession, a 1-1 draw feels like the probable outcome, with Burton Albion proving to be a thorn in Leicester City's side.

Leicester City

Form D

League ranking xG #16xGA #15xT #13xP/match #21Points #14

Key players

Samuel Charles BraybrookeCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.03
Memeh Caleb OkoliCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.03
Harry SouttarCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09

Burton Albion

Form WDDDD

League ranking xG #19xGA #1xT #12xP/match #6Points #13

Key players

Jake BeesleyFxG 0.39 · xT 0.02
Tyrese ShadeFxG 0.24 · xT 0.09
Charlie WebsterCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Leicester City – Burton Albion

Predicted score matrix

Burton Albion →

Leicester City →

0–09.5%

0–18.3%

0–24.2%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–012.8%

1–112.9%

1–26.0%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.5%

2–19.0%

2–24.3%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–04.5%

3–14.3%

3–22.1%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-013%
3.0-010%
4.2-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,44–0,95

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,557%

@2.12EV+21%

Over 2,543%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Leicester City to win51%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Leicester City to win51%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Oliver William Skipp to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Oliver William Skipp to score20%
George Evans to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Burton Albion27% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+58%reference odds
2 · Burton Albion27% probability@5.90BetssonEV+58%reference odds
2 · Burton Albion27% probability@5.90NordicbetEV+58%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Leicester City	X	2 · Burton Albion
Betsafe	1.50	4.05	EV+ 58% 5.90
Betsson	1.50	4.05	EV+ 58% 5.90
Nordicbet	1.50	4.05	EV+ 58% 5.90

Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 15 August — the odds have shortened from 2.32 to 2.12 (−9%).

1+3 %

65 %60 %

1.45 → 1.50

X-6 %

25 %20 %

4.30 → 4.05

2-6 %

18 %13 %

6.30 → 5.90

Over 2,5+6 %

61 %56 %

1.55 → 1.65

Betsson · 15 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Burton Albion are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Leicester City

Burton Albion

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Leicester City (1–1)

Burton Albion (1–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Leicester City

Burton Albion

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Leicester City

Burton Albion

The teams in numbers

Performance	Leicester City	Burton Albion
Points	1	1
xPoints	0.6	2
xG per match	1.1	0.93
xGA per match	1.4	0.43
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.03
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.03

Playing style	Leicester City	Burton Albion
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.36
Field tilt	0.65	0.56
xT per match	0.97	1
xTA per match	0.89	0.77
Won balls, offensive half	17	30
Pressing intensity	0.28	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.38	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.42
Entries into the box per match	12	8
Entries into the box against	15	9
Pass completion %	0.82	0.66
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.57
Passes per match	553	314
Passes against per match	202	294
Switches of play per match	14.9	20.4
Long balls per match	16	32

Set pieces	Leicester City	Burton Albion
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	5	2
Corners against per match	3	0
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.08	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	1
First touch, defensive corners %	0.33	0

Other	Leicester City	Burton Albion
Throw-in control	0.62	0.71

The goalkeepers	Wesley James Burns (Leicester City)	Corey Kofi Cheremeh Addai (Burton Albion)
Saves	1	2
Save %	100%	67%
xG prevented	100%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Leicester City vs Burton Albion according to our model?

The model gives Leicester City a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Leicester City 51%, draw 22%, Burton Albion 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.