Luton Town vs Notts County: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL League One22 August 2026 13:30 CESTKenilworth Road, Luton14°15 km/h

Luton TownPossession control

Notts CountyLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Luton Town (53%)Best value by the model: 2 · Notts County @ 4.90 (+8 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Luton Town 53%X 25%22% Notts County · 2

53%

25%

22%

Analysis: Luton Town – Notts County

Marcus Johansson · 17 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Four straight wins for Luton Town have painted a picture of dominance that isn't just a coincidence. This streak is backed by their ability to find the net in 15 consecutive league matches, underscoring their attacking prowess. With a model probability of 53% favoring Luton Town, it's clear which way the wind is blowing. They're up against a Notts County side that, while capable of the unexpected, has only managed a single point so far this season.

Luton Town have a penchant for possession football, which could prove problematic for Notts County's strategy of sitting back and hitting on the break. The visitors are likely to find themselves under the cosh at Kenilworth Road, where Luton Town have historically won 57% of their matches. However, this historical dominance is tempered somewhat by Luton Town's tendency to concede, with an xGA of 1.6 per match.

Despite the small head-to-head sample size, it's the broader data that leans towards a Luton Town victory. The expected goals tally favors Luton, 1.63 to 1.16. However, the most likely scorelines—1-1 (12%) and 1-0 (10%)—suggest that Notts County could still make things interesting, particularly with their defensive approach. This leans the match towards a result under 2.5 goals, though the over is a slight favorite at 53%.

Notts County might be on the back foot, but their value in the betting market is undeniable. With odds of 4.9 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, along with a model rating of 22% for a Notts County win, the away side presents an intriguing value bet with an 8% edge. While the smart money is on Luton Town extending their winning run, there's a shrewd angle in backing the underdog where the numbers suggest an opportunity.

Luton Town

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #8xGA #19xT #16xP/match #17Points #4

Key players

Jordan Charles ClarkCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
Jake RichardsRWxG 0.44 · xT 0.17
George Thomas JohnstonCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.15

Notts County

Form D

League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #14xP/match #4Points #9

Key players

Darius LipsiucLWBxG 0.22 · xT 0.12
Oliver Joseph CooperFxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
Jacob BedeauCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Luton Town – Notts County

Predicted score matrix

Notts County →

Luton Town →

0–06.5%

0–16.8%

0–24.1%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.6%

1–09.7%

1–111.9%

1–26.7%

1–32.6%

1–4+1.0%

2–08.2%

2–19.5%

2–25.5%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.4%

3–15.1%

3–23.0%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.6%

4+–13.0%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,63–1,16

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.02

Over 2,553%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Luton Town to win53%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Luton Town to win53%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Nahki Michael Wells to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Nahki Michael Wells to score34%
Jacob Mitchell Bedeau to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Notts County22% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Notts County22% probability@4.90BetssonEV+8%reference odds
2 · Notts County22% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Luton Town	X	2 · Notts County
Betsafe	1.62	3.85	EV+ 8% 4.90
Betsson	1.62	3.85	EV+ 8% 4.90
Nordicbet	1.62	3.85	EV+ 8% 4.90

Odds updated 18 Aug, 14:36

Odds movement

10 %

60 %55 %

1.62 → 1.62

X0 %

26 %21 %

3.85 → 3.85

20 %

21 %16 %

4.90 → 4.90

Over 2,50 %

57 %52 %

1.72 → 1.72

Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Luton Town come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Luton Town have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
Luton Town win 57% of their home matches all-time (23 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Luton Town

Notts County

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Luton Town (4–3)

Notts County (1–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Luton Town

Notts County

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Luton Town

Notts County

The teams in numbers

Performance	Luton Town	Notts County
Points	3	1
xPoints	1	2.2
xG per match	1.4	1.4
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.6	0.16

Playing style	Luton Town	Notts County
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.39	0.35
xT per match	0.82	0.89
xTA per match	0.67	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	16	38
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.45	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.39	0.17
Entries into the box per match	9	15
Entries into the box against	9	12
Pass completion %	0.78	0.66
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.62
Passes per match	366	202
Passes against per match	220	553
Switches of play per match	4.7	12.9
Long balls per match	13	25

Set pieces	Luton Town	Notts County
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	1.9	3
Corners against per match	4.7	5
xG per corner	0	0.08
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0.67
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.6

Other	Luton Town	Notts County
Throw-in control	0.71	0.69

The goalkeepers	Jordan Charles Clark (Luton Town)	Lucas Ness (Notts County)
Saves	3	3
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Luton Town vs Notts County according to our model?

The model gives Luton Town a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Luton Town 53%, draw 25%, Notts County 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.