EFL League OneHillsborough, Sheffield15°2,3 mm16 km/h

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    Sheffield WednesdaySheffield WednesdayCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Bradford CityBradford CityPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Bradford City (57%)
    Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

    Sheffield Wednesday – Bradford City · EFL League One

    1 · Sheffield Wednesday 20%X 23%57% Bradford City · 2

    Analysis: Sheffield Wednesday – Bradford City

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    A 57% probability for Bradford City to defeat Sheffield Wednesday in this League One clash sets the tone for a fixture where the visitors are clearly fancied. The model leans heavily towards Bradford City, with the most likely outcomes — 1-1, 0-1, and 0-2 — pointing towards a Bradford victory or a cagey draw. The expected goals further sharpen this picture, with Bradford City's 1.48 overshadowing Sheffield Wednesday's 1.00.

    Sheffield Wednesday, with their counter-attacking style, may look to exploit Bradford's high press, yet their lower xG per match of 1.8 compared to Bradford's tighter defensive xGA of 0.66 suggests they might struggle to find the net. Meanwhile, Bradford City's possession-based game should find some joy against Wednesday's cross-reliant offense. The fact that both teams to score hovers at 49% reflects the balanced tension in both attack and defense.

    Bradford City comes into the game with a tactical advantage in their pressing style against Sheffield's susceptibility to possession-based teams. Despite Sheffield's slight edge in xG per match and their capability to create opportunities quickly after regaining possession, Bradford City's disciplined defense, as reflected by their lower xGA, could stifle these attempts.

    Given the 45% chance for over 2.5 goals, the match leans towards a tighter affair, with the weather not mentioned, no external dampeners are expected to lower goal probabilities. Thus, the under 2.5 goals might be a safer bet here, aligning with the model's predicted scorelines.

    For those looking for a sharp betting angle, Bradford City at 2.1 odds with BetVictor appears to be an EV+ opportunity, given their favored status in the model and their ability to control games against teams like Sheffield Wednesday. Betting on Bradford City to win outright might just be the value play of the day.

    Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday
    Form W
    League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #15xP/match #8Points #6
    Key players
    • Callum SlatteryRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.27
    • Jamal LoweFxG 1.03 · xT 0.12
    • Max LoweLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
    Bradford CityBradford City
    Form DWLLW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #3xT #1xP/match #5Points #3
    Key players
    • Tyreik Samuel WrightLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
    • Max Mcauley PowerCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
    • Stephen Peter HumphrysFxG 0.35 · xT 0.03

    Match prediction: Sheffield Wednesday – Bradford City

    Predicted score matrix

    Bradford City →
    Sheffield Wednesday →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.8%
    0–112.1%
    0–29.2%
    0–34.5%
    0–4+2.3%
    1
    1–08.0%
    1–112.8%
    1–29.2%
    1–34.5%
    1–4+2.3%
    2
    2–04.2%
    2–16.2%
    2–24.6%
    2–32.3%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–01.4%
    3–12.1%
    3–21.5%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.6%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.0-29%
    4. 4.1-29%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,00–1,48
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    –
    Over 2,545%
    –

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Bradford City to win57%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.86

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Bradford City to win57%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%
    • Jake Elliott Beesley to score35%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%
    • Jake Elliott Beesley to score35%
    • Sil Laurentius Swinkels to be booked18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sheffield Wednesday
    Bradford City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sheffield Wednesday (2–1)
    Bradford City (2–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sheffield Wednesday
    Max Lowe: 29 passningar, xT 0.06LoweJoseph Patrick Lumley: 26 passningar, xT 0.04LumleyBarry Bannan: 22 passningar, xT 0.1BannanSil Laurentius Swinkels: 21 passningar, xT 0.04SwinkelsCallum Slattery: 16 passningar, xT 0.27SlatteryLiam Palmer: 13 passningar, xT 0.02PalmerJarvis Thornton: 12 passningar, xT 0.05ThorntonGabriel Otegbayo: 12 passningar, xT 0.03OtegbayoLouie Mark Barry: 11 passningar, xT 0.09BarryJamal Lowe: 9 passningar, xT 0.09LoweMason Paul James Burstow: 7 passningar, xT -0.01Burstow
    Bradford City
    Ibou Omar Touray: 49 passningar, xT 0.27TourayMacaulay Gillesphey: 42 passningar, xT 0.18GillespheyMatthew Pennington: 36 passningar, xT 0.08PenningtonAden William James Baldwin: 31 passningar, xT 0.04BaldwinJoshua Tyler Neufville: 30 passningar, xT 0.34NeufvilleCallum Alexander Connolly: 29 passningar, xT 0.01ConnollyAntoni Charles Sarcevic: 20 passningar, xT 0.14SarcevicBobby Michael Pointon: 20 passningar, xT 0.18PointonJon Douglas McCracken: 13 passningar, xT 0.04McCrackenJake Elliott Beesley: 12 passningar, xT 0.02BeesleyAdam Lee Phillips: 11 passningar, xT 0.48Phillips
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sheffield Wednesday
    Max Lowe: 29 passningar, xT 0.06LoweJoseph Patrick Lumley: 26 passningar, xT 0.04LumleyBarry Bannan: 22 passningar, xT 0.1BannanSil Laurentius Swinkels: 21 passningar, xT 0.04SwinkelsCallum Slattery: 16 passningar, xT 0.27SlatteryLiam Palmer: 13 passningar, xT 0.02PalmerJarvis Thornton: 12 passningar, xT 0.05ThorntonGabriel Otegbayo: 12 passningar, xT 0.03OtegbayoLouie Mark Barry: 11 passningar, xT 0.09BarryJamal Lowe: 9 passningar, xT 0.09LoweMason Paul James Burstow: 7 passningar, xT -0.01Burstow
    Bradford City
    Ibou Omar Touray: 49 passningar, xT 0.27TourayMacaulay Gillesphey: 42 passningar, xT 0.18GillespheyMatthew Pennington: 36 passningar, xT 0.08PenningtonAden William James Baldwin: 31 passningar, xT 0.04BaldwinJoshua Tyler Neufville: 30 passningar, xT 0.34NeufvilleCallum Alexander Connolly: 29 passningar, xT 0.01ConnollyAntoni Charles Sarcevic: 20 passningar, xT 0.14SarcevicBobby Michael Pointon: 20 passningar, xT 0.18PointonJon Douglas McCracken: 13 passningar, xT 0.04McCrackenJake Elliott Beesley: 12 passningar, xT 0.02BeesleyAdam Lee Phillips: 11 passningar, xT 0.48Phillips

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSheffield WednesdayBradford City
    Points33
    xPoints1.72
    xG per match1.81.5
    xGA per match0.810.66
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.360.12
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.30
    Playing styleSheffield WednesdayBradford City
    Build-up efficiency0.280.33
    Field tilt0.510.71
    xT per match0.842.2
    xTA per match0.231.2
    Won balls, offensive half3348
    Pressing intensity0.230.19
    Pressing efficiency0.490.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.510.3
    Entries into the box per match1120
    Entries into the box against810
    Pass completion %0.580.66
    Pass completion % under pressure0.450.6
    Passes per match182326
    Passes against per match204318
    Switches of play per match10.535.8
    Long balls per match3038
    Set piecesSheffield WednesdayBradford City
    xG from free kicks0.110.02
    Corners per match6.77.2
    Corners against per match4.83.1
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against00
    First touch, offensive corners %0.430.57
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60
    OtherSheffield WednesdayBradford City
    Throw-in control0.620.76
    The goalkeepersJoseph Patrick Lumley (Sheffield Wednesday)Jon Douglas McCracken (Bradford City)
    Saves22
    Save %67%100%
    xG prevented46%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sheffield Wednesday vs Bradford City according to our model?

    The model gives Bradford City a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sheffield Wednesday 20%, draw 23%, Bradford City 57%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.