01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Exeter City to win46%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
EFL League TwoSt James Park, Exeter14°11 km/h
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Exeter CityPossession controlvs
Accrington StanleyCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Exeter City (46%)Best value by the model: 2 · Accrington Stanley @ 3.70 (+2 %)
Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.
Exeter City – Accrington Stanley · EFL League Two
1 · Exeter City 46%X 26%28% Accrington Stanley · 2
46%
26%
28%
Analysis: Exeter City – Accrington Stanley
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Exeter City enters this clash with a 46% chance of victory, according to the model, yet the numbers beneath the surface tell a more nuanced story. While Exeter's chance creation shows potential with expected goals (xG) of 1.32, their defense is a sieve, conceding an alarming 2.5 expected goals against (xGA) per match. Accrington Stanley, on the other hand, boasts a tighter defensive unit, allowing just 0.86 xGA per match and producing a robust 1.9 xG themselves, suggesting they're more likely to capitalize on Exeter's defensive frailties.
Accrington Stanley should draw confidence from their current form, having secured an edge in both points (1 to Exeter's 0) and xPoints (2.1 to Exeter's 0.7). These figures point towards a team that not only creates more scoring opportunities but also suppresses them more effectively than their opponents. Despite the model's preference for Exeter City, everything from expected goals to recent form nudges us toward Accrington Stanley as the more likely winners, especially given Exeter’s vulnerability at the back.
Exeter City may dominate possession, but Accrington's counter-attacking style is tailor-made to exploit the gaps left behind. With the model suggesting a tight affair and the most likely scorelines including a 1-1 draw (13%) and a 1-0 win for Exeter (11%), the defensive edge of Accrington and their knack for hitting on the counter could see them nicking it. The forecast suggests a 9% likelihood of a 0-1 outcome, a result that would not be a shock given the underlying statistics.
For punters, there's notable value on the away side. Odds of 3.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet for an Accrington Stanley victory present a small edge, rated at 28% by the model. This represents a 2% value opportunity, subtly tipping the scales in favor of a bet on Accrington Stanley. While Exeter City's possession play may threaten, Accrington's clinical counter-attacks and solid defense position them as the more shrewd option in this match-up.
Exeter CityForm L
League ranking xG #18xGA #23xT #23xP/match #19Points #18
Accrington StanleyForm LDDLD
League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #4xP/match #5Points #13
Key players
- Charlie CatonFxG 0.85 · xT 0.10
- Connor David O'BrienRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.40
- Tom William MooreCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Exeter City – Accrington Stanley
Predicted score matrix
Accrington Stanley →
Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.2%
0–19.4%
0–25.4%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–011.2%
1–113.3%
1–27.2%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–07.7%
2–18.5%
2–24.7%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.4%
3–13.8%
3–22.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–11.7%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,32–1,11
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.82EV+2%
Over 2,544%
@1.92
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Exeter City to win46%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Jayden Darren George Wareham to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Jayden Darren George Wareham to score29%
- Connor David O'Brien to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Accrington Stanley28% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- 2 · Accrington Stanley28% probability@3.70BetssonEV+2%reference odds
- 2 · Accrington Stanley28% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Exeter City | X | 2 · Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.92 | 3.40 | EV+ 2% 3.70 |
| Betsson | 1.92 | 3.40 | EV+ 2% 3.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.92 | 3.40 | EV+ 2% 3.70 |
Odds updated 19 Aug, 10:36
Odds movement
10 %
51 %46 %
1.92 → 1.92
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.40 → 3.40
20 %
27 %22 %
3.70 → 3.70
Over 2,5-5 %
50 %45 %
2.02 → 1.92
Betsson · 19 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Exeter City
Accrington Stanley
Exeter City (0–1)
Accrington Stanley (2–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Exeter City
Accrington Stanley
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Exeter City
Accrington Stanley
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Exeter City | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 1 |
| xPoints | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| xG per match | 0.97 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 2.5 | 0.86 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.41 | 0.82 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.65 | 0 |
| Playing style | Exeter City | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.31 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 0.36 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 39 | 36 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 21 |
| Entries into the box against | 23 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.5 |
| Passes per match | 262 | 225 |
| Passes against per match | 306 | 246 |
| Switches of play per match | 7.2 | 14 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Exeter City | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Corners per match | 3.1 | 9 |
| Corners against per match | 6.2 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 1 |
| Other | Exeter City | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Jack Joseph Fitzwater (Exeter City) | Louie Moulden (Accrington Stanley) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 3 |
| Save % | 100% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 75% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Exeter City vs Accrington Stanley according to our model?
The model gives Exeter City a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Exeter City 46%, draw 26%, Accrington Stanley 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.