Port Vale vs Tranmere Rovers: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL League Two22 August 2026 16:00 CESTVale Park, Stoke-on-Trent15°0,3 mm12 km/h

Port ValePossession control

Tranmere RoversCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Port Vale (56%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Port Vale 56%X 23%21% Tranmere Rovers · 2

56%

23%

21%

Analysis: Port Vale – Tranmere Rovers

Oscar Nilsson · 17 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Port Vale enters this clash with a distinct edge, at least according to the model's probabilities. A 56% chance of victory paints a clear picture, starkly contrasting Tranmere Rovers' meager 21%. However, a small sample head-to-head record since 2023 shows nobody has walked away with a win, as both previous encounters ended in draws. While Port Vale's style is built on possession control, it hasn’t yet translated into victories over Tranmere Rovers, who have been adept at soaking up pressure and hitting back with counter-attacks and crosses.

Port Vale's expected goals of 1.53 indicate they should have the firepower to break down Tranmere, but the xG head-to-head data tells a different story. Despite their dominance on paper, Port Vale has managed only 0.66 xG per match against Tranmere's 1.2. This suggests Tranmere has had the better chances, though their expected goals against (2.1) show vulnerabilities in defense. If Port Vale can capitalize on this and sharpen their attacking edge, breaking the pattern of draws seems plausible.

13% odds on a 1-0 scoreline highlight the model’s lean towards a low-scoring Port Vale win. Yet, the over 2.5 goals probability remains modest at 43%, hinting at another potentially tight affair. The weather, if adverse, could further dampen the scoring, reinforcing the model's cautious stance on goals.

Port Vale's possession-heavy approach could suffocate Tranmere Rovers, but they must be wary of the visitors' counter-attacking prowess. Despite Tranmere's head-to-head advantage in expected points and goals, the model's confidence in a home win suggests value in backing Port Vale at 2.20 offered by Bet365. Given the lean towards unders and the likelihood of a close contest, a 1-0 victory for Port Vale might just be the shrewd prediction for punters eyeing a calculated wager.

Port Vale

Form LDWLL

League ranking xG #21xGA #16xT #17xP/match #23Points #22

Tranmere Rovers

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #16xGA #21xT #16xP/match #12Points #4

Key players

Connor JenningsFxG 0.37 · xT 0.06
Omari PatrickLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.12
Sam FinleyCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Port Vale – Tranmere Rovers

Predicted score matrix

Tranmere Rovers →

Port Vale →

0–09.3%

0–17.5%

0–23.5%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–013.3%

1–112.4%

1–25.4%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.5%

2–19.3%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–05.3%

3–14.7%

3–22.1%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.9%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-112%
3.2-010%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,53–0,89

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.70

Over 2,543%

@2.08

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Port Vale to win56%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Port Vale to win56%
Under 2.5 goals57%
George Cardinal Joseph Hall to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals43%
George Cardinal Joseph Hall to score26%
Nathan James Smith to be booked19%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Port Vale	X	2 · Tranmere Rovers
Betsafe	1.75	3.40	4.65
Betsson	1.75	3.40	4.65
Nordicbet	1.75	3.40	4.65

Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

57 %47 %

1.70 → 1.75

X-1 %

32 %22 %

3.45 → 3.40

2-5 %

26 %16 %

4.90 → 4.65

Over 2,50 %

50 %40 %

2.08 → 2.08

Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Port Vale 0Draw 2Tranmere Rovers 0

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Port Vale

Tranmere Rovers

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Port Vale (0–2)

Tranmere Rovers (2–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Port Vale

Tranmere Rovers

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Port Vale

Tranmere Rovers

The teams in numbers

Performance	Port Vale	Tranmere Rovers
Points	0	3
xPoints	0.3	1.4
xG per match	0.66	1.2
xGA per match	1.7	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	1.3	0.05

Playing style	Port Vale	Tranmere Rovers
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.34
Field tilt	0.61	0.35
xT per match	0.5	0.57
xTA per match	0.4	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	27	31
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.41	0.43
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.59	0.47
Entries into the box per match	9	7
Entries into the box against	7	14
Pass completion %	0.69	0.57
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.55
Passes per match	324	186
Passes against per match	208	263
Switches of play per match	18.9	11.3
Long balls per match	45	27

Set pieces	Port Vale	Tranmere Rovers
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.29
Corners per match	6.3	3.1
Corners against per match	1.1	5.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	1	0.6

Other	Port Vale	Tranmere Rovers
Throw-in control	0.79	0.81

The goalkeepers	Jackson William Smith (Port Vale)	Harrison Male (Tranmere Rovers)
Saves	1	3
Save %	33%	100%
xG prevented	8%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Port Vale vs Tranmere Rovers according to our model?

The model gives Port Vale a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Port Vale 56%, draw 23%, Tranmere Rovers 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.