York City vs Exeter City: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

EFL League Two29 August 2026 16:00 CESTLNER Community Stadium, York17°4,5 mm19 km/h

York CityPossession control

Exeter CityPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · York City (55%)

Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

1 · York City 55%X 25%20% Exeter City · 2

55%

25%

20%

Analysis: York City – Exeter City

Erik Lindberg · 24 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: York City's defensive stability, underscored by their xGA of 1.3 per match, sets the tone for their clash against Exeter City. This defensive edge, combined with their higher probability of winning at 55%, makes York the favorites. However, Exeter's slightly superior xG of 1.8 suggests they have the attacking firepower to challenge York's backline, despite the visitors' lower overall win probability of 20%.

The expected goal figures—York at 1.76 versus Exeter's 0.95—paint a picture of a match where the hosts will likely control possession and find the net. This is more about current form and tactical execution. York City has managed to gather more points, albeit with a lower xPoints than Exeter, reflecting their ability to convert chances into tangible results.

The model suggests that a 1-1 or a 1-0 outcome is equally plausible at 11%, with a 2-0 win for York also on the cards at 10%. The rain in the forecast could add an unpredictable element to the game. It’s telling that both the likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams finding the net hover around 51%, pointing to a finely balanced contest.

Given York's defensive prowess and favorable model lean, leaning towards York City to edge out Exeter, likely with a 1-0 scoreline, seems the prudent choice.

York City

Form WD

League ranking xG #7xGA #12xT #2xP/match #21Points #6

Key players

Alexander Lewis NewbyFxG 0.48 · xT 0.24
Oliver Ian BanksCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.19
Harry BoyesLWxG 0.44 · xT 0.22

Exeter City

Form LW

League ranking xG #5xGA #19xT #16xP/match #7Points #13

Key players

Jayden WarehamFxG 0.90 · xT 0.00
Edward George Martin JamesRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.07
Reece ColeCAMxG 0.09 · xT -0.01

Match prediction: York City – Exeter City

Predicted score matrix

Exeter City →

York City →

0–06.9%

0–16.0%

0–23.0%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–011.3%

1–111.4%

1–25.3%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.3%

2–19.8%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.0%

3–15.8%

3–22.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.0%

4+–13.8%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-011%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,76–0,95

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.00

Over 2,551%

@1.80

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

York City to win55%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

York City to win55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Harry Boyes to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Harry Boyes to score35%
Ethan Craig Brierley to be booked23%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · York City	X	2 · Exeter City
Betsafe	1.70	3.60	4.65
Betsson	1.70	3.60	4.65
Nordicbet	1.70	3.60	4.65
Pinnacle	1.65	3.99	4.62

Odds updated 26 Aug, 06:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a York City win since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 1.78 to 1.65 (−7%).

1-7 %

57 %52 %

1.78 → 1.65

X+9 %

27 %22 %

3.66 → 3.99

2+8 %

24 %19 %

4.28 → 4.62

Over 2,5-3 %

54 %49 %

1.85 → 1.80

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

York City

Exeter City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

York City (4–3)

Exeter City (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

York City

Exeter City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

York City

Exeter City

The teams in numbers

Performance	York City	Exeter City
Points	4	3
xPoints	2.1	3.4
xG per match	1.6	1.8
xGA per match	1.3	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.35

Playing style	York City	Exeter City
Build-up efficiency	0.43	0.31
Field tilt	0.66	0.37
xT per match	1.4	0.82
xTA per match	0.77	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	18	36
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.39	0.38
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.52	0.3
Entries into the box per match	16	10
Entries into the box against	8	17
Pass completion %	0.78	0.57
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.57
Passes per match	459	200
Passes against per match	202	319
Switches of play per match	28.5	11.8
Long balls per match	32	34

Set pieces	York City	Exeter City
xG from free kicks	0	0.06
Corners per match	8.1	6.2
Corners against per match	5.6	3.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.73	0.43

Other	York City	Exeter City
Throw-in control	0.8	0.67

The goalkeepers	Zak Robert Johnson (York City)	Jack Joseph Fitzwater (Exeter City)
Saves	4	7
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins York City vs Exeter City according to our model?

The model gives York City a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: York City 55%, draw 25%, Exeter City 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.