Manchester City vs Bournemouth: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Premier League23 August 2026Etihad Stadium, Manchester16°15 km/h

Läs på svenska

Manchester CityPossession & high press

BournemouthPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Manchester City (62%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 6.10 (+13 %)

1 · Manchester City 62%X 22%16% Bournemouth · 2

62%

22%

16%

Analysis: Manchester City – Bournemouth

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Seventy-eight points to fifty-seven is where the table stands, with Manchester City holding the advantage over AFC Bournemouth. Yet it’s not all straightforward arithmetic when these two sides face off. Manchester City have been relentless at home, winning 71% of their matches at the Etihad in their short history against Bournemouth. On the flip side, Bournemouth are riding high on an 18-match unbeaten run in the league, scoring in each of their last eight. This clash brings together two possession-heavy teams, and it’s this stylistic similarity that adds intrigue.

A small head-to-head sample of four matches since 2022 provides a 2-1 edge to Manchester City, but the real story goes beyond these limited encounters. With Manchester City scoring in 16 consecutive league matches and boasting an expected goals tally of 2.12 against Bournemouth’s 0.96, they have the upper hand. Yet, Bournemouth’s unbeaten streak and ability to find the net suggest they won’t be pushovers.

Manchester City might be pegged as favorites with a 62% win probability, but if you’re looking for where the value lies, the under 2.5 goals market is intriguing. Despite a model lean towards over 2.5 at 59%, the value is in the under at odds of 2.8 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, where the model identifies a 13% edge. The market is pricing it as less likely, perhaps underestimating the potential for a tightly contested affair, especially if weather conditions favor a more subdued game.

AFC Bournemouth, with their knack for grinding out results and Manchester City’s high-pressure style, could see this game end in a cagey 1-1 or perhaps a narrow 2-0 win for the home side. The under 2.5 goals bet could be the sharp play, a quiet nod to those seeking value beyond the obvious favorites.

Manchester City

Form DWWDL

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #3xP/match #4Points #2

Key players

Erling HaalandFxG 0.58 · xT 0.04
Matheus NunesRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Antoine SemenyoRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.03

Bournemouth

Form DWWDD

League ranking xG #8xGA #14xT #6xP/match #5Points #6

Key players

Antoine SemenyoLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.05
Adrien TruffertLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.18
Marcus TavernierCAMxG 0.22 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Manchester City – Bournemouth

Predicted score matrix

Bournemouth →

Manchester City →

0–04.9%

0–14.1%

0–22.1%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–09.5%

1–19.6%

1–24.5%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.3%

2–19.9%

2–24.8%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.3%

3–17.0%

3–23.4%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–06.3%

4+–16.1%

4+–22.9%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-110%
4.1-09%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,12–0,96

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.76EV+12%

Over 2,560%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Manchester City to win62%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Manchester City to win62%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Philip Walter Foden to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Philip Walter Foden to score31%
James Clayton Hill to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.518% probability@6.10BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
Under 1.518% probability@6.10BetssonEV+13%reference odds
Under 1.518% probability@6.10NordicbetEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Manchester City	X	2 · Bournemouth
Betsafe	1.49	4.50	6.20
Betsson	1.49	4.50	6.25
Nordicbet	1.49	4.50	6.20

Odds updated 18 Aug, 19:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

67 %62 %

1.47 → 1.49

X-2 %

23 %18 %

4.60 → 4.50

2-3 %

17 %12 %

6.44 → 6.25

Over 2,5+1 %

68 %63 %

1.45 → 1.46

Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Manchester City 2Draw 1Bournemouth 1

Goals: 8–5 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

Manchester City have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
AFC Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last 18 league matches.
AFC Bournemouth have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Manchester City win 71% of their home matches all-time (38 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Manchester City

Bournemouth

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Manchester City (77–35)

Bournemouth (58–54)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Manchester City

Bournemouth

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Manchester City

Bournemouth

The teams in numbers

Performance	Manchester City	Bournemouth
Points	78	57
xPoints	55.8	55
xG per match	1.7	1.5
xGA per match	1.1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.22

Playing style	Manchester City	Bournemouth
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.3
Field tilt	0.73	0.52
xT per match	1.1	1
xTA per match	0.67	0.99
Won balls, offensive half	27	26
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.34
Entries into the box per match	17	12
Entries into the box against	9	13
Pass completion %	0.84	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.71
Passes per match	518	337
Passes against per match	311	332
Switches of play per match	25.4	22.9
Long balls per match	26	26

Set pieces	Manchester City	Bournemouth
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.06
Corners per match	6.4	5.5
Corners against per match	3.8	5.3
xG per corner	0.06	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.73	0.59

Other	Manchester City	Bournemouth
Throw-in control	0.72	0.7

The goalkeepers	Gianluigi Donnarumma (Manchester City)	Đorđe Petrović (Bournemouth)
Saves	81	110
Save %	74%	68%
xG prevented	62%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Manchester City vs Bournemouth according to our model?

The model gives Manchester City a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Manchester City 62%, draw 22%, Bournemouth 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.