Premier League: Predictions, Odds & Tips

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    Model-based predictions for the Premier League — Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and the rest of the world's most-watched league, analysed by the same match model that powers PlaymakerAI. Ahead of every round the model computes 1X2 probabilities, a full score matrix, expected goals and over/under lines, built from hundreds of data points per team: strength, form, playing style, squad and weather.

    The predictions are held against live odds from multiple bookmakers, with positive expected value (EV+) flagged where the model’s probability beats the implied odds. Played matches are graded openly — hit or miss — and everything updates continuously until kickoff.

    New data study
    Premier League 2026/27 — simulated one million times
    Arsenal win every third season, fourth place is wide open and promoted Coventry are the shock. The full table, position by position.

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    League table2026/27

    PosTeamPSW–D–LGF–GAxPxGxGAxGDFTStyle
    1Manchester City1555–0–013–58,59,25,4+3,869 %Possession & high press
    2Arsenal1254–0–18–48,58,44,3+4,166 %Possession & high press
    3Brighton & Hove Albion1053–1–116–57,811,78,9+2,869 %Possession control
    4Brentford952–3–010–48,210,36,7+3,643 %Low block & direct
    5Leeds United952–3–07–38,07,96,9+1,033 %Possession control
    6Liverpool952–3–07–47,49,26,6+2,664 %Possession & high press
    7Everton952–3–06–38,37,36,9+0,447 %Balanced & physical
    8Hull City852–2–16–47,45,06,7−1,724 %Low block & direct
    9Newcastle United852–2–19–94,44,910,1−5,244 %Balanced & physical
    10Chelsea752–1–210–126,47,48,2−0,849 %Low block & direct
    11Ipswich Town652–0–37–116,45,98,2−2,338 %Balanced & physical
    12Manchester United551–2–28–86,88,95,2+3,771 %Possession & high press
    13Nottingham Forest551–2–24–58,28,45,4+3,055 %Low block & direct
    14Sunderland451–1–36–106,17,87,6+0,245 %Possession control
    15Crystal Palace451–1–36–114,24,510,9−6,439 %Low block & direct
    16Aston Villa451–1–34–95,54,98,8−3,940 %Low block & direct
    17Bournemouth350–3–26–88,58,35,9+2,446 %Possession control
    18Coventry City351–0–41–105,04,59,1−4,632 %Low block & direct
    19Fulham250–2–35–87,38,36,9+1,450 %Possession control
    20Tottenham Hotspur250–2–32–84,85,09,2−4,269 %Balanced & physical

    Latest articles

    All articles
    Hildegard saw it coming – this week's upsets with value 17/9

    2026-09-17 · 3 min

    Hildegard saw it coming – this week's upsets with value 17/9

    The article presents five football tips where the writer identifies value in the odds by analyzing details such as xG statistics, corners, and playing styles that the market seems to have overlooked. Among the tips are Sparta Rotterdam to beat Heerenveen (odds 3.40), Monza to defeat Sassuolo (odds 3.10), and Empoli as an upset candidate against Modena in Serie B (odds 5.37).

    This week's pool betting 17/9: locks and upsets

    2026-09-17 · 1 min

    This week's pool betting 17/9: locks and upsets

    This weekend's football round offers a wide range of pool betting, with Stryktipset and Europatipset from Svenska Spel, ATG's Big 9, and several products in the PoolX network such as Survivor8 and Flextipset8EUR. The article analyzes 53 matches in total and particularly highlights matches that recur across several betting formats, including Levski Sofia–Salzburg, where the data points toward an away win for Salzburg with a 54 percent probability.

    This week's pool play 10/9: locks and upsets

    2026-09-10 · 1 min

    This week's pool play 10/9: locks and upsets

    The article presents xG-based analyses of several football matches recurring in various Swedish pool betting games (Stryktipset, Europatipset, Flextipset, etc.), where Fenerbahçe–Roma stands out the most with a clear difference between the public's tips (27%) and the statistical model's assessment (41% home win). Other matches highlighted are Como–RB Leipzig (47% home win thanks to Como's rising form), Manchester United–Sabah (67% home win, the most one-sided match) as well as Slavia Praha–Lens and Stevenage–Luton Town, where the statistics reveal interesting deviations from general expectations

    How the predictions work

    Every prediction comes from PlaymakerAI's match model — the same data platform professional clubs use for scouting and match analysis. The model is trained on event data from hundreds of thousands of matches and weighs over 200 factors per team: strength ratings, current form, playing style, squad player profiles, fixture congestion, travel and even matchday weather.

    For each fixture the model produces a full goal distribution. From it we derive the 1X2 probabilities, the score matrix, expected goals, over/under lines and both-teams-to-score. Predictions are frozen before kickoff and never changed afterwards — once a match finishes we grade it openly, hit or miss.

    Odds are collected continuously from several bookmakers. When the model's probability for an outcome exceeds what the odds imply, we flag it as value (EV+). That is the model's assessment, not a guarantee: even positive-EV bets lose often. Gamble responsibly.

    Premier League FAQ

    Where do I find Premier League predictions?

    Right here: every match in the Premier League has its own analysis with 1X2 probabilities, most likely scoreline, over/under and value against current odds. Pick a match from the upcoming list — predictions are refreshed before every round and graded openly afterwards.

    How are the Premier League predictions made?

    Each match is replayed thousands of times in the model using hundreds of metrics per team — expected goals, pressing, expected threat, field tilt, form and squad. The output is a probability for every scoreline, which is then compared with bookmaker odds to find value.

    What is the xP table?

    xP means expected points: how many points each team should have taken given the quality of chances created and conceded. The gap between xP and the real table shows which the Premier League teams are over- and underrated right now.

    Which teams play in Premier League 2026/27?

    Premier League 2026/27 has 20 teams: Manchester City, Arsenal, Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford, Leeds United, Liverpool, Everton, Hull City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Ipswich Town, Manchester United, Nottingham Forest, Sunderland, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Coventry City, Fulham, Tottenham Hotspur.

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.