01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Everton to win54%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Premier LeagueMKM Stadium, Hull11°25 km/h
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Hull CityLow block & directvs
EvertonBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Everton (54%)
Hull City vs Everton · Premier League
1 · Hull City 20%X 26%54% Everton · 2
20%
26%
54%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Hull City – Everton
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Everton's recent unbeaten run of five league matches sets the scene as they travel to face Hull City. Despite only a marginal lead in the points tally, the Toffees' balanced and physical style is complemented by a stronger attacking presence, averaging 1.5 expected goals per match against Hull's 1.0. This suggests that Everton should find opportunities to exploit Hull's low defensive setup.
However, Hull's direct play could pose challenges, especially given Everton's slightly higher average of 1.4 expected goals against per match compared to Hull's 1.3. The visitors must guard against quick transitions that could catch them off-guard, especially if Hull manages to capitalize on any defensive lapses. While Hull are not prolific scorers, their ability to convert limited chances could tilt the match if Everton's defense is caught napping.
Despite these considerations, the model leans heavily towards an Everton victory, assigning them a 54% probability of taking all three points. With expected goals also favoring the visitors, the numbers suggest that Everton's superior firepower and recent form make them likely to edge the encounter. The most probable scorelines—1-1 and 0-1—highlight the potential for a tight match, but the edge goes to Everton.
In terms of betting angles, the under 2.5 goals appears appealing given its 56% likelihood, reflecting the cautious play styles and recent data. However, with Everton's unbeaten streak and attacking edge, backing them for a narrow victory offers value, especially if found at competitive odds around 2.0 or better with bookmakers.
Hull CityForm WWDDL
League ranking xG #15xGA #8xT #18xP/match #10Points #8
Key players
- Mohamed BelloumiRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.03
- Oli McBurnieFxG 0.26 · xT 0.03
- Regan SlaterCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.00
EvertonForm WDDDW
League ranking xG #13xGA #10xT #14xP/match #4Points #7
Key players
- Thierno BarryFxG 0.65 · xT 0.03
- Iliman NdiayeCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
- Kiernan Dewsbury HallCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Hull City – Everton
Predicted score matrix
Everton →
Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.0%
0–112.1%
0–29.0%
0–34.3%
0–4+2.2%
1
1–08.3%
1–112.9%
1–29.1%
1–34.4%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–04.4%
2–16.3%
2–24.6%
2–32.2%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–01.5%
3–12.1%
3–21.5%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.7%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,01–1,45
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.76
Over 2,544%
@2.09
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Everton to win54%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Thierno Mamadou Barry to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Thierno Mamadou Barry to score30%
- Matt Davidson Rider Crooks to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Everton54% probability@2.10LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds
- 2 · Everton54% probability@2.05BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- 2 · Everton54% probability@2.05NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hull City | X | 2 · Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.70 | 3.30 | EV+ 11% 2.05 |
| LeoVegas | 3.50 | 3.35 | EV+ 14% 2.10 |
| Nordicbet | 3.75 | 3.35 | EV+ 11% 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.71 | 3.40 | EV+ 10% 2.03 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 15:36
Statistics
Key facts
- Everton FC are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hull City
Everton
Hull City (6–4)
Everton (6–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hull City
Everton
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hull City
Everton
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hull City | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 9 |
| xPoints | 7.4 | 8.3 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.12 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Hull City | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 0.69 | 0.89 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 212 | 345 |
| Passes against per match | 535 | 462 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.3 | 19.2 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Hull City | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.4 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| Other | Hull City | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Konstantinos Tzolakis (Hull City) | Jordan Pickford (Everton) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 17 |
| Save % | 83% | 85% |
| xG prevented | 85% | 84% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Chelsea – Bournemouth10 October 2026
- Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest10 October 2026
- Sunderland – Brighton & Hove Albion10 October 2026
- Coventry City – Newcastle United10 October 2026
- Liverpool – Manchester City10 October 2026
- Ipswich Town – Fulham10 October 2026
- Aston Villa – Brentford10 October 2026
- Manchester United – Tottenham Hotspur10 October 2026
- Arsenal – Leeds United10 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hull City vs Everton according to our model?
The model gives Everton a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hull City 20%, draw 26%, Everton 54%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.