Chelsea vs Bournemouth Prediction: Home win 40% (10 Oct 2026)

Premier League10 October 2026Stamford Bridge, London13°0,2 mm17 km/h

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ChelseaLow block & direct

BournemouthPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Chelsea (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Bournemouth @ 4.55 (+53 %)

1 · Chelsea 40%X 26%34% Bournemouth · 2

40%

26%

34%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Chelsea – Bournemouth

Oscar Nilsson · 2 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Chelsea find themselves in a precarious position against Bournemouth, with the model assigning them only a 40% chance of victory. Despite their marginal advantage in points over the visitors, the underlying numbers tell a different story. Bournemouth outperforms the hosts in expected points (8.5 vs 6.4), expected goals per match (1.7 vs 1.5), and expected goals against (1.2 vs 1.6). This suggests that the apparent edge Chelsea holds in the standings might be more fragile than it appears.

The head-to-head record since 2022 is limited to just four matches, where Chelsea remain unbeaten with one win and three draws. While this small sample might hint at Chelsea's resilience, it carries less weight than the current form and xG metrics. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, aligning with the expected goals tally of 1.59 for the home side and 1.37 for the visitors. Both teams are expected to score, but the slight edge in possession and control style might just tip the balance in Bournemouth's favor.

For punters looking at potential value, the away win at odds of 4.3 with LeoVegas offers a striking 45% edge based on the model's 34% likelihood. For those who see a tighter, less open game, the under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.6 presents a 13% value opportunity.

Chelsea

Form WWLDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #13xT #17xP/match #14Points #10

Key players

João PedroFxG 0.48 · xT -0.05
Reece JamesCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.10
Morgan RogersFxG 0.26 · xT 0.10

Bournemouth

Form LDDDL

League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #12xP/match #2Points #17

Key players

Marcus TavernierLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.08
EvanilsonFxG 0.24 · xT 0.06
Alex ScottCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Chelsea – Bournemouth

Predicted score matrix

Bournemouth →

Chelsea →

0–05.5%

0–16.8%

0–24.8%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.0%

1–07.9%

1–111.6%

1–27.7%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.6%

2–19.0%

2–26.1%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.3%

3–03.5%

3–14.8%

3–23.3%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.7%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-28%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,59–1,37

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.71EV+17%

Over 2,557%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Chelsea or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Chelsea or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Cole Jermaine Palmer to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Cole Jermaine Palmer to score26%
António João Pereira de Albuquerque Tavares da Silva to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Bournemouth34% probability@4.55BetsafeEV+53%reference odds
2 · Bournemouth34% probability@4.55NordicbetEV+53%reference odds
2 · Bournemouth34% probability@4.30LeoVegasEV+45%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Chelsea	X	2 · Bournemouth
Betsafe	1.70	EV+ 5% 3.95	EV+ 53% 4.55
LeoVegas	1.70	EV+ 11% 4.20	EV+ 45% 4.30
Nordicbet	1.72	EV+ 6% 4.00	EV+ 53% 4.55

Odds updated 2 Oct, 08:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

58 %53 %

1.70 → 1.72

X-1 %

26 %21 %

4.05 → 4.00

2-2 %

23 %18 %

4.65 → 4.55

Over 2,50 %

67 %62 %

1.47 → 1.47

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 02/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Chelsea 1Draw 3Bournemouth 0

Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Chelsea

Bournemouth

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Chelsea (10–12)

Bournemouth (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Chelsea

Bournemouth

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Chelsea

Bournemouth

The teams in numbers

Performance	Chelsea	Bournemouth
Points	7	3
xPoints	6.4	8.5
xG per match	1.5	1.7
xGA per match	1.6	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.35	0.07

Playing style	Chelsea	Bournemouth
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.49	0.46
xT per match	0.79	0.91
xTA per match	0.99	0.93
Won balls, offensive half	26	29
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.28
Entries into the box per match	15	13
Entries into the box against	17	13
Pass completion %	0.77	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.73
Passes per match	344	323
Passes against per match	392	367
Switches of play per match	18.2	21.6
Long balls per match	25	30

Set pieces	Chelsea	Bournemouth
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.07
Corners per match	6.6	4.2
Corners against per match	5.2	4.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.11
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.65

Other	Chelsea	Bournemouth
Throw-in control	0.6	0.63

The goalkeepers	Emiliano Martinez (Chelsea)	Đorđe Petrović (Bournemouth)
Saves	18	11
Save %	67%	58%
xG prevented	53%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Chelsea

Fixtures, form & tips

Bournemouth

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Chelsea vs Bournemouth according to our model?

The model gives Chelsea a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Chelsea 40%, draw 26%, Bournemouth 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.