Premier LeagueThe City Ground, Nottingham14°1,4 mm22 km/h

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    Nottingham ForestNottingham ForestLow block & direct
    vs
    Coventry CityCoventry CityLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Nottingham Forest (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Coventry City @ 4.42 (+16 %)

    Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City · Premier League

    1 · Nottingham Forest 48%X 26%26% Coventry City · 2

    Analysis: Nottingham Forest – Coventry City

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Nottingham Forest's 48% chance of victory stands out as the leading probability for this clash, underscoring their edge in both form and expected goals metrics. The hosts' direct style paired with a low defensive base has proven effective, as evidenced by their 1.4 xG per match against Coventry's modest 0.77. This tactical approach aligns well with a Coventry side that has suffered three consecutive losses, further tipping the scales in Forest's favor.

    Coventry's struggles are compounded by their higher xGA of 1.5 compared to Forest's 1.2, suggesting potential vulnerabilities at the back which the home side might exploit. The most likely scorelines—1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), and 2-1 (9%)—paint a picture of a tightly contested match, where Forest’s marginal dominance could tip the outcome. A 1-0 victory for the hosts seems plausible, with the model slightly favoring an over 2.5 goals scenario at 51%, though not overwhelmingly so.

    The numbers suggest a home win, grounded in tactical solidity and statistical superiority.

    Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
    Form LDLDD
    League ranking xG #10xGA #7xT #11xP/match #7Points #16
    Key players
    • Igor JesusFxG 0.62 · xT 0.03
    • Neco WilliamsLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
    • Dan NdoyeRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.06
    Coventry CityCoventry City
    Form LLL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #10xT #12xP/match #17Points #20
    Key players
    • Milan Van EwijkRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
    • Jay DasilvaLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
    • Aurèle AmendaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: Nottingham Forest – Coventry City

    Predicted score matrix

    Coventry City →
    Nottingham Forest →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.0%
    0–17.4%
    0–24.5%
    0–31.8%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–09.8%
    1–112.3%
    1–27.0%
    1–32.7%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–07.9%
    2–19.2%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–04.1%
    3–14.8%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.2%
    4+–12.6%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,54–1,17
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @2.03
    Over 2,551%
    @1.82

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Nottingham Forest to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.81

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Nottingham Forest to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Lorenzo Lucca to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Ephron Jardell Mason-Clark to score21%
    • Ogochukwu Frank Onyeka to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Coventry City26% probability@4.42BetssonEV+16%reference odds
    • 2 · Coventry City26% probability@4.40BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
    • 2 · Coventry City26% probability@4.40NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Nottingham ForestX2 · Coventry City
    Betsafe1.783.70
    EV+ 16%
    4.40
    Betsson1.803.71
    EV+ 16%
    4.42
    Nordicbet1.803.70
    EV+ 16%
    4.40
    Pinnacle1.773.79
    EV+ 15%
    4.37

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:38

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Coventry City have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Nottingham Forest
    Coventry City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Nottingham Forest (2–3)
    Coventry City (0–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Nottingham Forest
    Murillo: 101 passningar, xT 0.33MurilloNeco Williams: 86 passningar, xT 0.17WilliamsNikola Milenković: 77 passningar, xT 0.05MilenkovićJames McAtee: 76 passningar, xT 0.23McAteeJair Cunha: 75 passningar, xT 0.15CunhaMorgan Gibbs White: 64 passningar, xT 0.04WhiteOla Aina: 63 passningar, xT 0.9AinaXaver Schlager: 55 passningar, xT 0.13SchlagerIgor Jesus: 45 passningar, xT 0.01JesusMatz Sels: 44 passningar, xT 0.05SelsIbrahim Sangaré: 41 passningar, xT -0.01Sangaré
    Coventry City
    Matt Grimes: 153 passningar, xT 0.1GrimesAurèle Amenda: 108 passningar, xT 0.15AmendaJay Dasilva: 100 passningar, xT 0.23DasilvaBobby Thomas: 94 passningar, xT 0.34ThomasMilan Van Ewijk: 91 passningar, xT 0.26EwijkCarl Rushworth: 83 passningar, xT 0.21RushworthCaleb Yirenkyi: 51 passningar, xT 0.11YirenkyiJack Rudoni: 43 passningar, xT 0.18RudoniLoum Tchaouna: 43 passningar, xT 0.28TchaounaFrank Onyeka: 27 passningar, xT 0OnyekaVictor Torp: 24 passningar, xT 0.12Torp
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Nottingham Forest
    Murillo: 101 passningar, xT 0.33MurilloNeco Williams: 86 passningar, xT 0.17WilliamsNikola Milenković: 77 passningar, xT 0.05MilenkovićJames McAtee: 76 passningar, xT 0.23McAteeJair Cunha: 75 passningar, xT 0.15CunhaMorgan Gibbs White: 64 passningar, xT 0.04WhiteOla Aina: 63 passningar, xT 0.9AinaXaver Schlager: 55 passningar, xT 0.13SchlagerIgor Jesus: 45 passningar, xT 0.01JesusMatz Sels: 44 passningar, xT 0.05SelsIbrahim Sangaré: 41 passningar, xT -0.01Sangaré
    Coventry City
    Matt Grimes: 153 passningar, xT 0.1GrimesAurèle Amenda: 108 passningar, xT 0.15AmendaJay Dasilva: 100 passningar, xT 0.23DasilvaBobby Thomas: 94 passningar, xT 0.34ThomasMilan Van Ewijk: 91 passningar, xT 0.26EwijkCarl Rushworth: 83 passningar, xT 0.21RushworthCaleb Yirenkyi: 51 passningar, xT 0.11YirenkyiJack Rudoni: 43 passningar, xT 0.18RudoniLoum Tchaouna: 43 passningar, xT 0.28TchaounaFrank Onyeka: 27 passningar, xT 0OnyekaVictor Torp: 24 passningar, xT 0.12Torp

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNottingham ForestCoventry City
    Points20
    xPoints4.63.1
    xG per match1.40.77
    xGA per match1.21.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.05
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.3
    Playing styleNottingham ForestCoventry City
    Build-up efficiency0.320.34
    Field tilt0.420.38
    xT per match0.870.77
    xTA per match0.71
    Won balls, offensive half2422
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.280.2
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.14
    Entries into the box per match118
    Entries into the box against1115
    Pass completion %0.690.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.71
    Passes per match261309
    Passes against per match393507
    Switches of play per match23.420.2
    Long balls per match3130
    Set piecesNottingham ForestCoventry City
    xG from free kicks0.060.02
    Corners per match3.44.4
    Corners against per match54.7
    xG per corner0.050.01
    xGA per corner against0.040.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.30.23
    First touch, defensive corners %0.470.57
    OtherNottingham ForestCoventry City
    Throw-in control0.810.77
    The goalkeepersMatz Sels (Nottingham Forest)Carl Rushworth (Coventry City)
    Saves46
    Save %57%67%
    xG prevented40%57%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Nottingham Forest
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Coventry City
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City according to our model?

    The model gives Nottingham Forest a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nottingham Forest 48%, draw 26%, Coventry City 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.