Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Premier League19 September 2026Amex Stadium, Brighton16°23 km/h

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Brighton & Hove Albion

Arsenal

The model's lean: 2 · Arsenal (49%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 6.10 (+16 %)

1 · Brighton & Hove Albion 24%X 28%49% Arsenal · 2

24%

28%

49%

Analysis coming shortly

The match analysis will be published shortly — the model's prediction and the odds above keep updating until kickoff.

Match prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion – Arsenal

Predicted score matrix

Arsenal →

Brighton & Hove Albion →

0–05.1%

0–17.9%

0–27.1%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.6%

1–06.0%

1–111.2%

1–29.3%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.4%

2–04.2%

2–17.2%

2–26.2%

2–33.5%

2–4+2.2%

3–01.8%

3–13.2%

3–22.7%

3–31.5%

3–4+1.0%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,32–1,72

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.00

Over 2,558%

@1.83EV+7%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Arsenal to win49%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Arsenal to win49%
Over 2.5 goals58%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals58%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.519% probability@6.10BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
Over 4.519% probability@6.10BetssonEV+16%reference odds
Over 4.519% probability@6.10NordicbetEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Brighton & Hove Albion	X	2 · Arsenal
Betsafe	EV+ 8% 4.55	EV+ 3% 3.70	1.75
Betsson	EV+ 8% 4.55	EV+ 3% 3.71	1.78
Nordicbet	EV+ 8% 4.55	EV+ 3% 3.70	1.78
Pinnacle	EV+ 0% 4.22	EV+ 8% 3.88	1.77

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:38

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal according to our model?

The model gives Arsenal a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brighton & Hove Albion 24%, draw 28%, Arsenal 49%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.