Manchester United vs Manchester City: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Premier League13 September 2026Old Trafford, Manchester19°0,1 mm9 km/h

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Manchester UnitedPossession & high press

0–1

Manchester CityPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Manchester City (45%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.57 (+15 %)

1 · Manchester United 28%X 27%45% Manchester City · 2

28%

27%

45%

Analysis: Manchester United – Manchester City

Oscar Nilsson · 11 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

A clash of styles that aren't so different: both Manchester United and Manchester City are expected to dominate possession and execute a high press. Despite similar strategies, the visitors hold the upper hand in this match-up due to current form and expected goals. City's recent three-game winning streak in the Premier League and their consistent scoring ability—netting in 19 straight league games—make them the more reliable choice.

While United's head-to-head record since 2022 shows they have managed two wins against City in a small sample size of four matches, the form and quality metrics favor the visitors. Pep Guardiola's side tops the xPoints and expected goals against metrics, though United actually carries the edge in expected goals for the match. The model gives City a 45% chance of victory, compared to United's 28%.

The most likely scoreline carries a 12% probability for a 1-1 draw, followed by a 1-2 City win at 10%, and a 0-1 City victory at 9%. The numbers suggest a closely contested affair, with City having the slight upper hand. Nestled within these probabilities is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals, and a 58% likelihood that both teams find the net—a reflection of both teams' attacking prowess.

The betting angle here offers attractive value on under 2.5 goals, with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering odds of 2.56, translating to a 14% edge according to the model. This suggests that despite the expected fireworks, the under might just be where the smart money lies. The numbers paint a picture of a game that might not reach the goal bonanza some expect, making the under an enticing proposition for those looking to capitalize on an overlooked angle.

Manchester United

Form WWLWD

League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #2xP/match #9Points #11

Key players

Bryan MbeumoRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.12
Marcus RashfordLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
Luke ShawLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.30

Manchester City

Form DLWWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #3xP/match #3Points #1

Key players

Erling HaalandFxG 0.82 · xT 0.15
Nico O'ReillyLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.23
Abdukodir KhusanovRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04

Final score

0 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Manchester United 28% · Draw 27% · Manchester City 45%

Match prediction: Manchester United – Manchester City

Predicted score matrix

Manchester City →

Manchester United →

0–05.9%

0–19.0%

0–27.9%

0–34.4%

0–4+2.7%

1–06.4%

1–111.6%

1–29.5%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.3%

2–04.0%

2–16.8%

2–25.7%

2–33.2%

2–4+2.0%

3–01.6%

3–12.8%

3–22.3%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.6%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-28%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,21–1,69

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.57EV+15%

Over 2,555%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Manchester City or draw (X2)73%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Manchester City or draw (X2)73%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Erling Braut Haaland to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Bryan Tetsadong Marceau Mbeumo to score32%
Rodrigo Hernández Cascante to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.545% probability@2.57BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
Under 2.545% probability@2.57BetssonEV+15%reference odds
Under 2.545% probability@2.57NordicbetEV+15%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Manchester United	X	2 · Manchester City
Betsafe	3.15	EV+ 1% 3.75	2.10
Betsson	3.20	EV+ 1% 3.76	2.11
Nordicbet	3.20	EV+ 1% 3.75	2.12
Pinnacle	3.13	EV+ 1% 3.76	2.21

Odds updated 13 Sept, 05:04

Odds movement

1+5 %

33 %28 %

2.99 → 3.13

X-5 %

27 %22 %

3.95 → 3.76

2+3 %

47 %42 %

2.14 → 2.21

Pinnacle · 19 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 13/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Manchester United 2Draw 1Manchester City 1

Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

Manchester City come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Manchester City have scored in 19 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Manchester United

Manchester City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Manchester United (7–6)

Manchester City (7–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Manchester United

Manchester City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Manchester United

Manchester City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Manchester United	Manchester City
Points	4	9
xPoints	4.5	5.4
xG per match	2	2
xGA per match	1	0.59
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.42
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.06

Playing style	Manchester United	Manchester City
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.34
Field tilt	0.69	0.83
xT per match	1.5	1.4
xTA per match	0.69	0.7
Won balls, offensive half	19	28
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.3
Entries into the box per match	20	18
Entries into the box against	8	7
Pass completion %	0.83	0.86
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.8
Passes per match	507	678
Passes against per match	282	217
Switches of play per match	24.9	31.8
Long balls per match	28	30

Set pieces	Manchester United	Manchester City
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.03
Corners per match	5.6	6
Corners against per match	3	3.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.09	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.59	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.8

Other	Manchester United	Manchester City
Throw-in control	0.73	0.88

The goalkeepers	Senne Lammens (Manchester United)	Gianluigi Donnarumma (Manchester City)
Saves	9	8
Save %	60%	89%
xG prevented	34%	82%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Manchester United

Fixtures, form & tips

Manchester City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Manchester United vs Manchester City according to our model?

The model gives Manchester City a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Manchester United 28%, draw 27%, Manchester City 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.