Bournemouth vs Brentford: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Premier League12 September 2026Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth15°14 km/h

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BournemouthPossession control

BrentfordLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Bournemouth (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.35 (+7 %)

1 · Bournemouth 43%X 28%30% Brentford · 2

43%

28%

30%

Analysis: Bournemouth – Brentford

Marcus Johansson · 7 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

FAKTA indikerer at xG per kamp (1,6 mot 2,6) faktisk gir fordel til Brentford, ikke Bournemouth, så avsnittet som hevder at dette taler for vertene er feil. Korrigert tekst:

Bournemouth's consistent ability to find the net, evidenced by their scoring in 11 consecutive league matches, sets the stage for a confrontation with Brentford's disciplined low-block defense. The clash is primed to pit possession against pragmatism. Bournemouth's style, controlling the game and pushing forward, contrasts sharply with Brentford's direct approach, which thrives on exploiting defensive gaps.

While Brentford boasts an impressive unbeaten streak of five league games, the small head-to-head sample since 2022 shows Bournemouth with no victories in four tries, hinting at potential psychological barriers despite their home advantage. The season-long xG numbers actually favor Brentford, with their expected goals per match (2.6) well ahead of Bournemouth's (1.6), underlining the visitors' attacking quality even as the model still leans toward the hosts for this specific match.

The most likely scorelines according to the model, 1-1 (12%) and 2-1 (9%), suggest a close encounter with Bournemouth holding a slight edge. Despite Brentford's unbeaten run, the model leans towards Bournemouth with a 43% win probability, a nod to their potent attack and home turf. With an expected goals figure of 1.64 for Bournemouth against Brentford's 1.23, the numbers support a scenario where the hosts could eke out a narrow victory.

The betting angle points towards potential value in backing Bournemouth. Odds of 2.5 at Nordicbet, with a model-rated 43% chance, offer a 7% edge. Similar value can be found with Betsson at 2.49 and Betsafe at 2.48, both presenting a 6% edge. This, coupled with the 55% likelihood for over 2.5 goals, suggests a lively affair with Bournemouth as favorites to emerge victorious.

Bournemouth

Form DDLDD

League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #17xP/match #5Points #15

Key players

Marcus TavernierLWxG 0.35 · xT 0.02
Alex ScottCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
EvanilsonFxG 0.34 · xT 0.07

Brentford

Form DDWDD

League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #1xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Igor ThiagoFxG 0.60 · xT 0.09
Keane Lewis PotterLWBxG 0.25 · xT 0.44
Kevin SchadeLWxG 0.46 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Bournemouth – Brentford

Predicted score matrix

Brentford →

Bournemouth →

0–06.0%

0–16.6%

0–24.3%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.0%

1–111.8%

1–27.0%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.6%

2–19.4%

2–25.8%

2–32.4%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.2%

3–15.1%

3–23.1%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.5%

4+–13.0%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,64–1,23

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@2.35EV+7%

Over 2,555%

@1.61

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Bournemouth or draw (1X)72%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Bournemouth or draw (1X)72%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa to score31%
Nathan Michael Collins to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.545% probability@2.35BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
Under 2.545% probability@2.35BetssonEV+7%reference odds
Under 2.545% probability@2.35NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bournemouth	X	2 · Brentford
Betsafe	EV+ 6% 2.48	3.50	2.70
Betsson	EV+ 6% 2.49	3.53	2.72
Nordicbet	EV+ 7% 2.50	3.55	2.72
Pinnacle	EV+ 7% 2.50	EV+ 4% 3.72	2.72

Odds updated 8 Sept, 05:15

Odds movement

1-4 %

40 %35 %

2.60 → 2.50

X+4 %

29 %24 %

3.59 → 3.72

2+6 %

39 %34 %

2.56 → 2.72

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 08/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Bournemouth 0Draw 1Brentford 3

Goals: 4–9 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

AFC Bournemouth have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Brentford are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bournemouth

Brentford

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bournemouth (4–5)

Brentford (5–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bournemouth

Brentford

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bournemouth

Brentford

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bournemouth	Brentford
Points	2	5
xPoints	5	5.6
xG per match	1.6	2.6
xGA per match	1.2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.81
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.03	0.11

Playing style	Bournemouth	Brentford
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.37	0.48
xT per match	0.66	1.7
xTA per match	0.92	0.85
Won balls, offensive half	26	36
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.28
Entries into the box per match	9	16
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.74	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.7
Passes per match	299	305
Passes against per match	394	344
Switches of play per match	21	19.4
Long balls per match	28	30

Set pieces	Bournemouth	Brentford
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.04
Corners per match	5.3	5.6
Corners against per match	6.3	3.6
xG per corner	0.1	0.1
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.71
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.73

Other	Bournemouth	Brentford
Throw-in control	0.62	0.76

The goalkeepers	Đorđe Petrović (Bournemouth)	Caoimhin Kelleher (Brentford)
Saves	9	7
Save %	64%	78%
xG prevented	75%	23%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bournemouth vs Brentford according to our model?

The model gives Bournemouth a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bournemouth 43%, draw 28%, Brentford 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.