Premier LeagueStamford Bridge, London17°0,2 mm14 km/h

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    ChelseaChelseaLow block & direct
    vs
    Hull CityHull CityLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Chelsea (70%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hull City @ 14.25 (+69 %)

    Chelsea – Hull City · Premier League

    1 · Chelsea 70%X 18%12% Hull City · 2

    Analysis: Chelsea – Hull City

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Chelsea enters this matchup with a 70% chance of victory, underscoring their strong position. Despite a slight points edge for the visitors this season, underlying metrics favor the hosts. Chelsea's expected goals of 2.20 against Hull's 0.78 speak volumes: the home side is more efficient in front of goal. Their playing styles mirror each other, both adopting a low-defence, direct approach, but Chelsea's higher xG per match (1.9) indicates they produce better opportunities.

    The model leans towards a straightforward Chelsea win, with 2-0 the most likely scoreline at 12%. However, Hull City isn't without hope, having a 12% chance to cause an upset. While such a small percentage might seem negligible, it represents a 60% value edge at odds of 13.5 with Nordicbet. Meanwhile, a potential for both teams to score sits at 48%, hinting at some vulnerability in Chelsea's defense.

    The numbers suggest a Chelsea victory is on the cards, with the over 2.5 goals market leaning at 57%. Yet, value seekers may look to Hull's slim but lucrative chances. At odds of 13.5 with Nordicbet, betting on the underdog might just be the shrewdest move, offering a tantalizing edge for those who dare to back a surprise result.

    ChelseaChelsea
    Form WLWWL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #13xT #14xP/match #4Points #4
    Key players
    • Morgan RogersFxG 0.31 · xT 0.19
    • João PedroFxG 0.56 · xT -0.07
    • Cole PalmerCMxG 0.52 · xT 0.11
    Hull CityHull City
    Form WWD
    League ranking xG #19xGA #9xT #19xP/match #11Points #3
    Key players
    • Oli McBurnieFxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
    • Regan SlaterCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.01
    • Mohamed BelloumiRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.01

    Match prediction: Chelsea – Hull City

    Predicted score matrix

    Hull City →
    Chelsea →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.3%
    0–13.7%
    0–21.5%
    0–30.4%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–010.9%
    1–19.0%
    1–23.4%
    1–30.9%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–012.3%
    2–19.6%
    2–23.7%
    2–31.0%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–09.1%
    3–17.0%
    3–22.7%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–08.3%
    4+–16.5%
    4+–22.5%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-012%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.3-09%
    5. 5.1-19%
    Expected goals
    2,20–0,78
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.87EV+23%
    Over 2,557%
    @1.43

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Chelsea to win70%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    59%

    Fair odds

    1.70

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Chelsea to win70%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus to score32%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus to score32%
    • John Egan to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Hull City12% probability@14.25PinnacleEV+69%reference odds
    • 2 · Hull City12% probability@14.21BetssonEV+69%reference odds
    • 2 · Hull City12% probability@14.00BetsafeEV+66%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · ChelseaX2 · Hull City
    Betsafe1.23
    EV+ 7%
    5.85
    EV+ 66%
    14.00
    Betsson1.23
    EV+ 7%
    5.85
    EV+ 69%
    14.21
    Nordicbet1.23
    EV+ 7%
    5.85
    EV+ 66%
    14.00
    Pinnacle1.23
    EV+ 10%
    6.02
    EV+ 69%
    14.25

    Odds updated 7 Sept, 17:36

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    79 %74 %

    1.22 → 1.23

    X+4 %
    19 %14 %

    5.81 → 6.02

    2+9 %
    10 %5 %

    13.09 → 14.25

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Chelsea
    Hull City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Chelsea (8–7)
    Hull City (3–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Chelsea
    Maxence Lacroix: 103 passningar, xT 0.18LacroixReece James: 91 passningar, xT 0.13JamesCole Palmer: 78 passningar, xT 0.13PalmerRoméo Lavia: 58 passningar, xT 0.08LaviaWesley Fofana: 56 passningar, xT 0.17FofanaJosh Acheampong: 52 passningar, xT 0AcheampongMalo Gusto: 49 passningar, xT 0.11GustoMorgan Rogers: 48 passningar, xT 0.52RogersJorrel Hato: 43 passningar, xT 0.06HatoJoão Pedro: 43 passningar, xT -0.14PedroLevi Colwill: 41 passningar, xT 0.07Colwill
    Hull City
    Konstantinos Tzolakis: 61 passningar, xT 0.09TzolakisRegan Slater: 58 passningar, xT 0.01SlaterNobel Mendy: 56 passningar, xT 0.09MendyJohn Egan: 56 passningar, xT 0.03EganSemi Ajayi: 53 passningar, xT 0.13AjayiRyan Giles: 51 passningar, xT 0.57GilesLewie Coyle: 37 passningar, xT 0.08CoyleMohamed Belloumi: 30 passningar, xT 0.02BelloumiOli McBurnie: 26 passningar, xT 0.09McBurnieLucas Gourna-Douath: 25 passningar, xT 0.03Gourna-DouathElliot Stroud: 17 passningar, xT 0.15Stroud
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Chelsea
    Maxence Lacroix: 103 passningar, xT 0.18LacroixReece James: 91 passningar, xT 0.13JamesCole Palmer: 78 passningar, xT 0.13PalmerRoméo Lavia: 58 passningar, xT 0.08LaviaWesley Fofana: 56 passningar, xT 0.17FofanaJosh Acheampong: 52 passningar, xT 0AcheampongMalo Gusto: 49 passningar, xT 0.11GustoMorgan Rogers: 48 passningar, xT 0.52RogersJorrel Hato: 43 passningar, xT 0.06HatoJoão Pedro: 43 passningar, xT -0.14PedroLevi Colwill: 41 passningar, xT 0.07Colwill
    Hull City
    Konstantinos Tzolakis: 61 passningar, xT 0.09TzolakisRegan Slater: 58 passningar, xT 0.01SlaterNobel Mendy: 56 passningar, xT 0.09MendyJohn Egan: 56 passningar, xT 0.03EganSemi Ajayi: 53 passningar, xT 0.13AjayiRyan Giles: 51 passningar, xT 0.57GilesLewie Coyle: 37 passningar, xT 0.08CoyleMohamed Belloumi: 30 passningar, xT 0.02BelloumiOli McBurnie: 26 passningar, xT 0.09McBurnieLucas Gourna-Douath: 25 passningar, xT 0.03Gourna-DouathElliot Stroud: 17 passningar, xT 0.15Stroud

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceChelseaHull City
    Points67
    xPoints5.24.2
    xG per match1.90.69
    xGA per match1.71.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.08
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.410.07
    Playing styleChelseaHull City
    Build-up efficiency0.330.3
    Field tilt0.340.17
    xT per match0.70.55
    xTA per match1.11.6
    Won balls, offensive half2621
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.230.21
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.180.16
    Entries into the box per match128
    Entries into the box against2018
    Pass completion %0.740.64
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.7
    Passes per match263183
    Passes against per match500578
    Switches of play per match13.416.8
    Long balls per match2426
    Set piecesChelseaHull City
    xG from free kicks0.030.11
    Corners per match3.72
    Corners against per match65.4
    xG per corner0.080.11
    xGA per corner against0.010.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.270.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.62
    OtherChelseaHull City
    Throw-in control0.640.69
    The goalkeepersEmiliano Martinez (Chelsea)Konstantinos Tzolakis (Hull City)
    Saves1210
    Save %75%100%
    xG prevented65%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Chelsea vs Hull City according to our model?

    The model gives Chelsea a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Chelsea 70%, draw 18%, Hull City 12%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.