Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Premier League20 September 2026Elland Road, Leeds14°0,1 mm23 km/h

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Leeds UnitedBalanced & physical

Crystal PalaceLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Leeds United (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Crystal Palace @ 4.60 (+29 %)

1 · Leeds United 42%X 30%28% Crystal Palace · 2

42%

30%

28%

Analysis: Leeds United – Crystal Palace

Marcus Johansson · 18 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Leeds United enters this matchup with a slight statistical edge over Crystal Palace, both in terms of form and expected goals. The home side's balanced and physical style contrasts with the visitors' low-defence, direct approach. Leeds has secured 8 points to Palace's 3 in their recent performances, a pattern that aligns with their superior expected points (xPoints) tally of 6.6 to 2.9. The model favors Leeds, predicting a 42% chance for a home win, compared to just 28% for the visitors.

The expected goals (xG) figures further illuminate Leeds' advantage, with the hosts generating 1.6 xG per match against Palace's 0.86, while also managing to keep their expected goals against (xGA) lower at 1.5 compared to Palace's 2.3. This suggests Leeds could edge out a narrow victory. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, alongside a less than even probability for over 2.5 goals (45%), indicate a tense, low-scoring affair.

Historically, albeit from a small sample of two matches since 2022, Leeds has not lost to Palace, with one win and one draw. While head-to-heads offer limited insight due to the small sample size, they do reinforce the current form trends. Both teams to score is an even proposition at 50%, hinting at a balanced battle but not one laden with goals.

Despite the lean towards Leeds, there’s significant value in backing Palace at odds of 4.5 with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, as the model gives them a 28% chance of victory, a 26% edge over the market's implied probability. This presents a compelling option for value seekers willing to bet against the grain, even though the analytical lean favors a narrow win for the hosts.

Leeds United

Form LWDDW

League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #12xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Dominic Calvert LewinFxG 0.62 · xT 0.15
Anton StachLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.03
Brenden AaronsonLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.01

Crystal Palace

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #20xT #7xP/match #20Points #16

Key players

Adam WhartonFxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
Quinten TimberFxG 0.11 · xT 0.03
Anan KhalailiRWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Leeds United – Crystal Palace

Predicted score matrix

Crystal Palace →

Leeds United →

0–08.8%

0–18.8%

0–25.0%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.3%

1–113.1%

1–26.9%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.1%

2–18.8%

2–24.8%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.7%

3–14.1%

3–22.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.8%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.0-19%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,39–1,09

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@2.12EV+5%

Over 2,545%

@1.91

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Leeds United or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Leeds United or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Dominic Nathaniel Calvert-Lewin to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Dominic Nathaniel Calvert-Lewin to score24%
Addji Keaninkin Marc-Israel Guéhi to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Crystal Palace28% probability@4.60PinnacleEV+29%reference odds
2 · Crystal Palace28% probability@4.50BetsafeEV+26%reference odds
2 · Crystal Palace28% probability@4.50BetssonEV+26%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Leeds United	X	2 · Crystal Palace
Bet365	2.00	EV+ 4% 3.50	3.50
Betsafe	1.78	EV+ 10% 3.70	EV+ 26% 4.50
Betsson	1.79	EV+ 11% 3.71	EV+ 26% 4.50
Nordicbet	1.78	EV+ 10% 3.70	EV+ 26% 4.50
Pinnacle	1.78	EV+ 14% 3.83	EV+ 29% 4.60

Odds updated 18 Sept, 05:10

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Leeds United win since 13 September — the odds have shortened from 1.96 to 1.78 (−9%).

1-9 %

56 %46 %

1.96 → 1.78

X+10 %

31 %21 %

3.49 → 3.83

2+20 %

28 %18 %

3.83 → 4.60

Over 2,5-5 %

58 %48 %

1.85 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 13/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Leeds United 1Draw 1Crystal Palace 0

Goals: 4–1 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Leeds United

Crystal Palace

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Leeds United (7–3)

Crystal Palace (6–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Leeds United

Crystal Palace

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Leeds United

Crystal Palace

The teams in numbers

Performance	Leeds United	Crystal Palace
Points	8	3
xPoints	6.6	2.9
xG per match	1.6	0.86
xGA per match	1.5	2.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.73

Playing style	Leeds United	Crystal Palace
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.35	0.33
xT per match	0.88	1
xTA per match	0.96	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	34	21
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.18
Entries into the box per match	10	7
Entries into the box against	12	17
Pass completion %	0.7	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.71
Passes per match	270	334
Passes against per match	375	496
Switches of play per match	20.8	15.3
Long balls per match	26	21

Set pieces	Leeds United	Crystal Palace
xG from free kicks	0	0.01
Corners per match	4.6	2.2
Corners against per match	5.3	4.9
xG per corner	0.01	0
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.17	0
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.6

Other	Leeds United	Crystal Palace
Throw-in control	0.82	0.72

The goalkeepers	James Trafford (Leeds United)	Dean Henderson (Crystal Palace)
Saves	16	12
Save %	84%	60%
xG prevented	64%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Leeds United

Fixtures, form & tips

Crystal Palace

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Leeds United vs Crystal Palace according to our model?

The model gives Leeds United a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Leeds United 42%, draw 30%, Crystal Palace 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.