Bournemouth vs Liverpool: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Premier League20 September 2026Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth18°0,1 mm12 km/h

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BournemouthPossession control

LiverpoolPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Bournemouth (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.60 (+21 %)

1 · Bournemouth 37%X 26%37% Liverpool · 2

37%

26%

37%

Analysis: Bournemouth – Liverpool

Marcus Johansson · 18 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

AFC Bournemouth versus Liverpool presents a fascinating clash, with the model giving both sides a 37% chance of victory, pointing towards a tightly contested affair. The expected goals suggest an edge for Bournemouth at 1.50 compared to Liverpool's 1.38. Despite Liverpool's historical dominance in this matchup, winning six of the last eight, the hosts have shown resilience, scoring in 12 consecutive league matches, hinting at a possible disruption in the visitors’ unbeaten streak.

The clash of styles is intriguing. Bournemouth, known for their possession control, might seek to stifle Liverpool’s high press and possession game. This tactical battle could dictate the tempo, potentially leading to a lower-scoring game than historical averages suggest. The model's probabilities for scorelines like 1-1 (12%) and 2-1 (9%) emphasize the likelihood of a closely fought contest.

Bournemouth's edge in xPoints (7.6 compared to Liverpool's 5.5) highlights their underlying performance, despite having fewer actual points. This could be crucial, as Liverpool have shown vulnerability in defense, with a higher xGA per match of 1.4 compared to Bournemouth’s 1.1. Such metrics suggest the hosts might have the defensive discipline needed to absorb pressure and strike effectively on the counter.

For those looking for value, the under 1.5 goals market stands out. At odds of 5.97 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model sees a 29% edge. This reflects the possibility of a match that undercuts expectations of a goal-filled encounter, especially if Bournemouth successfully controls the pace and limits Liverpool’s attacking opportunities.

In summary, expect a tactical duel potentially favoring Bournemouth’s disciplined approach. While a 1-1 draw seems the most probable scoreline, the sharpest edge lies in betting on under 1.5 goals, exploiting the generous odds available.

Bournemouth

Form DLDDD

League ranking xG #4xGA #4xT #17xP/match #2Points #15

Key players

Marcus TavernierLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.01
EvanilsonFxG 0.24 · xT 0.07
Alex ScottCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.04

Liverpool

Form DDDWD

League ranking xG #3xGA #9xT #3xP/match #14Points #8

Key players

Alexander IsakFxG 0.76 · xT -0.01
Dominik SzoboszlaiCMxG 0.32 · xT 0.09
Virgil van DijkCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Bournemouth – Liverpool

Predicted score matrix

Liverpool →

Bournemouth →

0–06.0%

0–17.4%

0–25.4%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.1%

1–08.1%

1–112.0%

1–28.0%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.3%

2–18.7%

2–26.0%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.3%

3–03.2%

3–14.3%

3–23.0%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-28%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,50–1,38

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@2.66EV+20%

Over 2,555%

@1.49

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Bournemouth or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Bournemouth or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa to score28%
Alexis Mac Allister to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.522% probability@5.60BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
Under 1.522% probability@5.60BetssonEV+21%reference odds
Under 1.522% probability@5.60NordicbetEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bournemouth	X	2 · Liverpool
Betsafe	EV+ 16% 3.10	3.70	2.15
Betsson	EV+ 18% 3.15	3.71	2.15
Nordicbet	EV+ 18% 3.15	3.70	2.15
Pinnacle	EV+ 17% 3.12	3.88	2.17

Odds updated 18 Sept, 10:37

Odds movement

1-2 %

33 %28 %

3.20 → 3.12

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.87 → 3.88

2+5 %

47 %42 %

2.07 → 2.17

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 11/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Bournemouth 2Draw 0Liverpool 6

Goals: 7–27 (⌀ 4,2)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

Liverpool FC dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 4.2 goals per meeting on average.
AFC Bournemouth have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Liverpool FC are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bournemouth

Liverpool

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bournemouth (6–7)

Liverpool (6–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bournemouth

Liverpool

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bournemouth

Liverpool

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bournemouth	Liverpool
Points	3	6
xPoints	7.6	5.5
xG per match	1.8	1.9
xGA per match	1.1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.66
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.23

Playing style	Bournemouth	Liverpool
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.44	0.68
xT per match	0.65	1.2
xTA per match	0.97	0.77
Won balls, offensive half	28	28
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.28
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	14	11
Pass completion %	0.75	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.76
Passes per match	322	451
Passes against per match	358	275
Switches of play per match	22.6	34.9
Long balls per match	29	39

Set pieces	Bournemouth	Liverpool
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.08
Corners per match	4.5	4.2
Corners against per match	5	4.7
xG per corner	0.13	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.68

Other	Bournemouth	Liverpool
Throw-in control	0.63	0.75

The goalkeepers	Đorđe Petrović (Bournemouth)	Alisson Becker (Liverpool)
Saves	9	12
Save %	56%	75%
xG prevented	68%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bournemouth

Fixtures, form & tips

Liverpool

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bournemouth vs Liverpool according to our model?

The model gives Bournemouth a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bournemouth 37%, draw 26%, Liverpool 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.