Ligue 2Stade Gaston Gérard, Dijon29°0,2 mm9 km/h

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    DijonDijon
    vs
    PauPau
    The model's lean: 1 · Dijon (52%)

    Dijon – Pau · Ligue 2

    1 · Dijon 52%X 28%20% Pau · 2

    Analysis: Dijon – Pau

    Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work

    52% is a commanding figure. Dijon stands as the clear favorite in this clash against Pau FC, suggesting that the home side is poised to dictate proceedings. Since the dawn of 2023, Dijon has shown a knack for capitalizing on their opportunities, a trend underpinned by their expected goals tally of 1.68 here. In contrast, Pau FC struggles to threaten offensively, with a meager 1.01 expected goals. Despite the narrow 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 scorelines whispering of a closer contest, Dijon’s higher probability and superior attacking metrics make a compelling case for a home win.

    Dijon's recent form and overall model probabilities suggest they are more than capable of securing a victory. Pau FC's likelihood of taking all three points sits at a paltry 20%, underscoring the uphill battle they face. Recent head-to-head encounters between these sides are too scant to tilt the scales away from current form and expected goals. Thus, Dijon’s more robust numbers remain the guiding light.

    Numbers can sometimes mislead, especially when the weather plays its part, but no such meteorological meddling is in the forecast to dull this matchup. With a 50% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score, the model hints at a competitive affair. Nevertheless, the balance tilts towards a low-scoring triumph for Dijon, possibly a 1-0 or 2-1, aligning with their edge in expected goals.

    For punters, the smart money might find value in a Dijon win, particularly if odds above evens are on offer. With the model's firm lean towards the home side, any bookmaker dishing out odds north of 2.0 represents an appetizing proposition. If you fancy a bit more risk, consider a play on the precise scorelines, but the safest bet remains backing Dijon to come out on top.

    DijonDijon
    Form D
    Key players
    • Jordan MarieCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
    • Moussa FatyLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
    • Ben Chayeel HamadaRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
    PauPau
    Form DDWLL
    Key players
    • Anthony BriançonCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
    • Rayan TouzgharCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
    • Daylam MeddahCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Dijon – Pau

    Predicted score matrix

    Pau →
    Dijon →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.1%
    0–16.5%
    0–23.4%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–011.1%
    1–111.8%
    1–25.8%
    1–31.9%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.6%
    2–19.7%
    2–24.9%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–05.4%
    3–15.4%
    3–22.7%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–03.3%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-010%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,68–1,01
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @1.68
    Over 2,550%
    @2.16EV+7%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Dijon to win52%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.79

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Dijon to win52%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Yanis Djamil Barka to score28%

    Combined probability

    9%

    Fair odds

    11.06

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Yanis Djamil Barka to score28%
    • Steeve Beusnard to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    3%

    Fair odds

    39.05

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Dijon52% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+16%
    • 1 · Dijon52% probability@2.22BetssonEV+16%
    • 1 · Dijon52% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+16%
    Bookmaker1 · DijonX2 · Pau
    Betsafe
    EV+ 16%
    2.22    		3.103.15
    Betsson
    EV+ 16%
    2.22    		3.103.15
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 16%
    2.22    		3.103.15
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 12%
    2.13    		3.323.45

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:35

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Dijon
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Dijon (1–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Dijon
    Quentin Bernard: 35 passningar, xT 0.08BernardBen Chayeel Hamada: 33 passningar, xT 0.04HamadaLenny Stéphane Lacroix: 30 passningar, xT 0.07LacroixPaul Bellon: 26 passningar, xT 0.03BellonJordan Marie: 24 passningar, xT 0.14MarieBrandon Nsimba Nsimba Ndezi: 23 passningar, xT 0.03NdeziMoussa Faty: 23 passningar, xT 0.11FatyMickaël Jose Barreto: 19 passningar, xT 0.03BarretoYlann Marie-Rose: 14 passningar, xT 0.02Marie-RoseAdel Lembezat: 12 passningar, xT 0.15LembezatAlexis N'Tamack: 7 passningar, xT 0.11N'Tamack
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Dijon
    Quentin Bernard: 35 passningar, xT 0.08BernardBen Chayeel Hamada: 33 passningar, xT 0.04HamadaLenny Stéphane Lacroix: 30 passningar, xT 0.07LacroixPaul Bellon: 26 passningar, xT 0.03BellonJordan Marie: 24 passningar, xT 0.14MarieBrandon Nsimba Nsimba Ndezi: 23 passningar, xT 0.03NdeziMoussa Faty: 23 passningar, xT 0.11FatyMickaël Jose Barreto: 19 passningar, xT 0.03BarretoYlann Marie-Rose: 14 passningar, xT 0.02Marie-RoseAdel Lembezat: 12 passningar, xT 0.15LembezatAlexis N'Tamack: 7 passningar, xT 0.11N'Tamack
    The goalkeepersLenny Stéphane Lacroix (Dijon)Pau
    Saves7–
    Save %100%–
    xG prevented100%–
    Claims0 (0%)–

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Dijon vs Pau according to our model?

    The model gives Dijon a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dijon 52%, draw 28%, Pau 20%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.