Rodez vs Laval: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Ligue 28 August 2026Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez24°13 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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RodezLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Rodez (49%)

LavalBalanced & physical

1 · Rodez 49%X 29%22% Laval · 2

49%

29%

22%

Rodez

Form DWWWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #17xT #6xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Ibrahima BaldéFxG 0.48 · xT 0.05
Taïryk ArconteFxG 0.35 · xT 0.09
Nolan GalvesRWBxG 0.1 · xT 0.17

Laval

Form DWDLW

League ranking xG #14xGA #18xT #17xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Malik SelloukiFxG 0.2 · xT 0.11
Mamadou CamaraFxG 0.28 · xT 0.04
Thibaut VargasRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Rodez – Laval

Predicted score matrix

Laval →

Rodez →

0–08.4%

0–17.4%

0–23.7%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–012.2%

1–112.4%

1–25.8%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.7%

2–19.4%

2–24.5%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–05.1%

3–14.9%

3–22.4%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.8%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-012%
3.2-010%
4.2-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,56–0,96

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.87EV+1%

Over 2,546%

@1.93

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.554% probability@1.87PinnacleEV+1%

Bookmaker	1 · Rodez	X	2 · Laval
Pinnacle	2.04	3.45	3.57

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04

Analysis: Rodez – Laval

Sofia Andersson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Rodez, unbeaten in their last 22 league matches, have been riding a wave of form that positions them as clear favourites against Laval, with a 49% model probability of victory. The numbers tell a compelling story of a team that's not just surviving but thriving, especially within the context of Ligue 2. Laval, with their balanced and physical play, offer resistance, but their 22% chance of winning underscores the uphill battle they face.

Rodez's expected goals of 1.56 versus Laval's 0.96 suggests a match that leans towards the home side, possibly by a narrow margin. The most likely scorelines—1-1 and 1-0—each at 12%, reflect a game that could easily swing with a single moment of decisive action. Yet, Rodez's greater xPoints (57.6 to 40.1) and points tally (62 to 31) hint at a deeper quality and consistency that Laval may struggle to counteract.

Laval's head-to-head resilience against Rodez since 2023, with 2 wins and 2 draws, shouldn't be overlooked. However, the current form and statistical edge favour Rodez, suggesting a 1-0 victory is on the cards. With both teams typically keeping matches tight, and Rodez's low defensive profile, the likelihood of a scoring spree remains slim.

Rodez's direct approach contrasts sharply with Laval's balanced style, setting the stage for strategic duels rather than a goal fest. Thus, the over 2.5 goals probability sits at a cautious 46%, with a mere 49% backing for both teams to score. Betting enthusiasts might find the under 2.5 goals option particularly enticing at odds of 1.869 with Pinnacle. With a model rating of 54%, there's a subtle 1% edge, offering value for those who relish the nuance of tight, tactical encounters.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Rodez 0Draw 2Laval 2

Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Rodez are unbeaten in their last 22 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rodez

Laval

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Rodez (48–41)

Laval (28–46)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rodez

Laval

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rodez

Laval

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rodez	Laval
Points	62	31
xPoints	57.6	40.1
xG per match	1.3	1.1
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.16

Playing style	Rodez	Laval
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.32
Field tilt	0.36	0.45
xT per match	0.97	0.76
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	21	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.32
Entries into the box per match	11	9
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.71	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.69
Passes per match	253	324
Passes against per match	412	396
Switches of play per match	20.9	24.9
Long balls per match	30	36

Set pieces	Rodez	Laval
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.06
Corners per match	4.4	4.9
Corners against per match	5.6	5.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.66

Other	Rodez	Laval
Throw-in control	0.7	0.63

The goalkeepers	Quentin Braat (Rodez)	Mamadou Samassa (Laval)
Saves	129	99
Save %	76%	72%
xG prevented	55%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rodez vs Laval according to our model?

The model gives Rodez a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rodez 49%, draw 29%, Laval 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.