Nantes vs Red Star: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Ligue 28 August 2026Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes24°14 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

Läs på svenska

NantesLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Nantes (37%)

Red StarPossession control

1 · Nantes 37%X 29%34% Red Star · 2

37%

29%

34%

Nantes

League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #14xP/match #10Points #14

Key players

Patrick OuotroFxG 0.14 · xT 0.03
Zakaria FdaouchLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.14
Jérémy Pierre Sincère GélinCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.11

Red Star

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #11xGA #5xT #7xP/match #7Points #6

Key players

Dylan DurivauxCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.1
Giovanni HaagCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
Balthazar Jean Philippe Marie PierretCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.1

Match prediction: Nantes – Red Star

Predicted score matrix

Red Star →

Nantes →

0–010.9%

0–111.7%

0–26.9%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.0%

1–011.3%

1–113.7%

1–27.6%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.1%

2–06.4%

2–17.4%

2–24.2%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.6%

3–02.4%

3–12.7%

3–21.6%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-112%
3.1-011%
4.0-011%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,11–1,15

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,561%

@1.77EV+8%

Over 2,539%

@2.03

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Red Star34% probability@4.23PinnacleEV+45%
Under 2.561% probability@1.77PinnacleEV+8%

Bookmaker	1 · Nantes	X	2 · Red Star
Pinnacle	1.87	3.45	EV+ 45% 4.23

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04

Analysis: Nantes – Red Star

Oscar Nilsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Nantes have amassed 37 points, a stark difference compared to Red Star's 53. Despite this gap, the model tips Nantes with a 37% likelihood of securing a win. This paints a picture of an intriguing clash where the numbers don't tell the full story. Both teams, while close in predicted goals (Nantes 1.11 to Red Star 1.15), offer contrasting styles — Nantes is about directness and low defensive play, while Red Star prefers possession control. Yet, Red Star has the upper hand in almost every metric: xPoints, xG, and xGA.

Nantes might have the model's favor, but Red Star's consistency is hard to ignore. The bookies echo this ambivalence with a 29% chance for a draw and a 34% for a Red Star victory. While the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, there's a significant chance for Red Star to edge this. Their xGA of 0.99 suggests they can keep Nantes at bay, and their xG of 1.2 hints at potential breakthroughs in such tightly contested matches.

Red Star enter this game with a quiet confidence drawn from both historical performance and current form. Their ability to dictate play through possession could stifle Nantes, whose direct play might struggle against a defensively sound unit. The model's inclination towards a 1-0 scoreline for either side isn't far-fetched, considering the slim margins these teams operate within.

With Pinnacle offering odds of 4.23 for a Red Star victory — a 45% edge for bettors — there's a tangible value in backing the visitors. However, the sharpest angle lies in the under 2.5 goals market at odds of 1.769, with a 61% model rating and an 8% edge. Given both teams exhibit solid defenses and modest attacking numbers, this aligns seamlessly with the expectation of a tightly contested, low-scoring affair.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Red Star

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Red Star (45–39)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Red Star

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Red Star

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nantes	Red Star
Points	37	53
xPoints	45.4	47.9
xG per match	1.1	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	0.99
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.18

Playing style	Nantes	Red Star
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.31
Field tilt	0.43	0.52
xT per match	0.79	0.94
xTA per match	1	0.87
Won balls, offensive half	26	24
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.31
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	11	11
Pass completion %	0.71	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.73
Passes per match	271	381
Passes against per match	417	318
Switches of play per match	16.3	27.4
Long balls per match	30	35

Set pieces	Nantes	Red Star
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.09
Corners per match	4.5	4.4
Corners against per match	4.6	3.7
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.61

Other	Nantes	Red Star
Throw-in control	0.65	0.71

The goalkeepers	Nantes	Gaetan Poussin (Red Star)
Saves	–	95
Save %	–	74%
xG prevented	–	56%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nantes vs Red Star according to our model?

The model gives Nantes a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nantes 37%, draw 29%, Red Star 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.