Dunkerque vs Grenoble: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Ligue 28 August 2026Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque21°11 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

Läs på svenska

DunkerquePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Dunkerque (48%)

GrenobleLow block & direct

1 · Dunkerque 48%X 28%24% Grenoble · 2

48%

28%

24%

Dunkerque

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #9xP/match #16Points #11

Key players

Thomas RobinetFxG 0.33 · xT 0
Alec Mathieu GeorgenRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
Enzo BardeliCAMxG 0.17 · xT 0.11

Grenoble

Form DLDWW

League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #13xP/match #13Points #12

Key players

Jessy BenetCAMxG 0.19 · xT 0.07
Nesta ElphegeFxG 0.37 · xT -0.01
Yadaly DiabyLWxG 0.2 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Dunkerque – Grenoble

Predicted score matrix

Grenoble →

Dunkerque →

0–09.4%

0–18.3%

0–24.1%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–012.8%

1–112.8%

1–26.0%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.5%

2–19.1%

2–24.3%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–04.6%

3–14.4%

3–22.1%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.3%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-013%
3.2-010%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,45–0,95

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.85EV+5%

Over 2,543%

@1.95

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.557% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+5%

Bookmaker	1 · Dunkerque	X	2 · Grenoble
Pinnacle	2.00	3.44	3.68

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04

Analysis: Dunkerque – Grenoble

Sofia Andersson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Numbers don't lie: Dunkerque holds a slight edge over Grenoble with a 48% chance to take the win, according to the model probabilities. This isn't just a shot in the dark; it’s a reflection of the dynamics both teams have displayed since early 2023. Despite the close contest in the points table, where Dunkerque edges with 40 to Grenoble’s 39, the expectation here is for Dunkerque to assert their style of possession control against a Grenoble side that tends to sit back and strike on the counter.

Dunkerque has emerged victorious in two of the four recent encounters between these sides, and their ability to control possession could prove pivotal. A narrow win is well within reach, with the most likely scorelines being either 1-1 or 1-0, each with a 13% probability. The latter seems particularly plausible given the xG metrics, with Dunkerque having a slight upper hand of 1.45 expected goals to Grenoble's 0.95.

Grenoble, while resilient in defense, has not shown the same prowess going forward. Their xG per match stands at a mere 1.0 in contrast to Dunkerque’s 1.2, suggesting they might struggle to find the net. With only a 43% chance for over 2.5 goals, the numbers lean towards a cagey affair rather than a goal-fest. Both teams have a 47% likelihood to score, further hinting at a tight, low-scoring contest.

Grenoble's defensive grit could make it hard for Dunkerque to run rampant, but the latter’s superior possession game should dictate the tempo. The prudent play here might just be the under 2.5 goals, especially given the value offered at odds of 1.847 with Pinnacle. The model rates this outcome at a 57% chance, revealing a 5% edge that's hard to ignore. A 1-0 win for Dunkerque seems the most likely outcome, and punters should take note of the value in a low-scoring tilt.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Dunkerque 2Draw 0Grenoble 2

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 1,2)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Dunkerque

Grenoble

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Dunkerque (49–44)

Grenoble (33–39)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Dunkerque

Grenoble

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Dunkerque

Grenoble

The teams in numbers

Performance	Dunkerque	Grenoble
Points	40	39
xPoints	39.7	43.2
xG per match	1.2	1
xGA per match	1.2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.23

Playing style	Dunkerque	Grenoble
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.56	0.4
xT per match	0.93	0.79
xTA per match	0.84	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	22	22
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.33
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	8	13
Pass completion %	0.83	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.72
Passes per match	448	305
Passes against per match	320	410
Switches of play per match	26.8	26.9
Long balls per match	32	33

Set pieces	Dunkerque	Grenoble
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.06
Corners per match	4.3	3.5
Corners against per match	4.2	6
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.57

Other	Dunkerque	Grenoble
Throw-in control	0.73	0.66

The goalkeepers	Mathys Niflore (Dunkerque)	Mamadou Diop (Grenoble)
Saves	65	106
Save %	71%	75%
xG prevented	31%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Dunkerque vs Grenoble according to our model?

The model gives Dunkerque a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dunkerque 48%, draw 28%, Grenoble 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.