01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Dunkerque to win48%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
Ligue 2Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque20°19 km/h
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DunkerquePossession control4–2
GrenobleLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Dunkerque (48%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.88 (+7 %)
Dunkerque vs Grenoble · Ligue 2
1 · Dunkerque 48%X 28%24% Grenoble · 2
48%
28%
24%
Analysis: Dunkerque – Grenoble
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The numbers paint a compelling picture: Dunkerque stands at the stronger position with a 48% probability of winning versus Grenoble's 24%, and a slight edge in both expected goals and actual points. Dunkerque’s possession-oriented play might well dictate the flow against Grenoble's low block and direct approach. This clash of styles often leads to tight matches, and the model's most likely scoreline of 1-1 or 1-0 supports a narrow victory for Dunkerque.
Dunkerque enters the fray with a slight psychological edge, boasting a balanced head-to-head record against Grenoble since 2023, albeit from a small sample of just four games. This sample size should be taken with caution, as current form and expected goals carry more weight in predicting outcomes. Dunkerque’s xG per match of 1.2 versus Grenoble’s 1.0 underscores their slight offensive superiority, while their defensive metrics give them an additional cushion.
53% of model outcomes suggest under 2.5 goals, aligning well with the expected goals of Dunkerque at 1.45 and Grenoble at 0.95. The likelihood of both teams scoring stands below half, at 47%, nudging the expectation towards a low-scoring affair, especially since Dunkerque's possession play may nullify Grenoble’s direct counterattacks.
A mere 43% chance of over 2.5 goals aligns with Pinnacle's under 2.5 odds at 1.862, presenting a valuable 6% edge for bettors. The weather, if unkind, would only bolster this under narrative, suppressing goal opportunities further. A 1-0 result for Dunkerque appears to be the shrewdest prediction, with the under bet offering a calculated value for those looking to place a wager.
DunkerqueForm LLWLL
League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #9xP/match #16Points #11
Key players
- Thomas RobinetFxG 0.33 · xT 0.00
- Alec Mathieu GeorgenRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
- Enzo BardeliCAMxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
GrenobleForm DLDWW
League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #13xP/match #13Points #12
Key players
- Jessy BenetCAMxG 0.19 · xT 0.07
- Nesta ElphegeFxG 0.37 · xT -0.01
- Yadaly DiabyLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.07
Final score
4 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Dunkerque 48% · Draw 28% · Grenoble 24%
Match prediction: Dunkerque – Grenoble
Predicted score matrix
Grenoble →
Dunkerque →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.4%
0–18.3%
0–24.1%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–012.8%
1–112.8%
1–26.0%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.5%
2–19.1%
2–24.3%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–04.6%
3–14.4%
3–22.1%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-013%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,45–0,95
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,557%
@1.88EV+7%
Over 2,543%
@1.98
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Dunkerque to win48%
- Under 2.5 goals57%
- Enzo Bardeli to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Enzo Bardeli to score22%
- Pape Daouda Diong to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.557% probability@1.88PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dunkerque | X | 2 · Grenoble |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.53 | 3.81 |
Odds updated 8 Aug, 08:10
Odds movement
10 %
50 %45 %
2.00 → 2.00
X+3 %
30 %25 %
3.44 → 3.53
2+4 %
28 %23 %
3.68 → 3.81
Over 2,5+1 %
51 %46 %
1.95 → 1.98
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesDunkerque 2Draw 0Grenoble 2
Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 1,2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dunkerque
Grenoble
Dunkerque (49–44)
Grenoble (33–39)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dunkerque
Grenoble
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dunkerque
Grenoble
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Dunkerque | Grenoble |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40 | 39 |
| xPoints | 39.7 | 43.2 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Dunkerque | Grenoble |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 0.93 | 0.79 |
| xTA per match | 0.84 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.83 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 448 | 305 |
| Passes against per match | 320 | 410 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.8 | 26.9 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Dunkerque | Grenoble |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 3.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| Other | Dunkerque | Grenoble |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Mathys Niflore (Dunkerque) | Mamadou Diop (Grenoble) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 65 | 106 |
| Save % | 71% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 31% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dunkerque vs Grenoble according to our model?
The model gives Dunkerque a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dunkerque 48%, draw 28%, Grenoble 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.