01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Saint-Étienne or draw (X2)60%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Ligue 2Stade Auguste Bonal, Montbéliard25°13 km/h
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Sochaux0–3
Saint-ÉtiennePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Saint-Étienne (37%)Best value by the model: 1 · Sochaux @ 3.93 (+42 %)
Sochaux vs Saint-Étienne · Ligue 2
1 · Sochaux 36%X 27%37% Saint-Étienne · 2
36%
27%
37%
Analysis: Sochaux – Saint-Étienne
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
A razor-thin line separates FC Sochaux-Montbeliard and Saint-Etienne in this Ligue 2 clash, with both sides hovering around the 36-37% mark for victory. The model leans ever so slightly towards Saint-Etienne, but it's far from a decisive tilt. The expected goal tally, with Sochaux-Montbeliard at 1.31 and Saint-Etienne at 1.12, hints at a tactical battle rather than a goal-fest, a sentiment echoed by the under 2.5 goals probability sitting at 56%.
FC Sochaux-Montbeliard have a tantalizing value proposition here. Pinnacle offers odds of 3.61 for a home win, which translates into a 31% implied probability. Given the model's 36% estimation, there's a noticeable edge for those looking to back the home side. While such value doesn't guarantee success, it certainly grabs the eye of any seasoned bettor.
Saint-Etienne's slight edge in the probabilities doesn't quite manifest in the expected goals, suggesting that while they might be marginally favoured, the match could easily tip in Sochaux-Montbeliard's favour — especially with the value odds in play. The most probable outcomes — a 1-1 draw at 13% and slim 1-0 victories for either team — reinforce the expectation of a tight contest. The 50% likelihood for both teams to score supports the narrative of an evenly-matched duel.
Weather conditions are absent from the equation, meaning the numbers haven't been skewed by rain or wind predictions. With such closely matched statistics and no external factors like adverse weather to muddy the waters, the game looks to hinge on fine margins.
Ending on the sharpest angle, the value bet on FC Sochaux-Montbeliard at 3.61 with Pinnacle presents an enticing opportunity. While the model slightly favours Saint-Etienne, the potential return on backing the home side might just be worth the punt.
SochauxSaint-ÉtienneForm LLLWD
League ranking xG #4xGA #8xT #3xP/match #12Points #4
Key players
- Zuriko DavitashviliLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.11
- Lucas StassinFxG 0.43 · xT 0.07
- Maxime BernauerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
Final score
0 – 3
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sochaux 36% · Draw 27% · Saint-Étienne 37%
Match prediction: Sochaux – Saint-Étienne
Predicted score matrix
Saint-Étienne →
Sochaux →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.1%
0–19.5%
0–25.6%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–011.1%
1–113.3%
1–27.3%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.5%
2–18.4%
2–24.7%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.3%
3–13.7%
3–22.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.6%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,31–1,12
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.81EV+1%
Over 2,544%
@2.06
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Saint-Étienne or draw (X2)60%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Lucas Frédéric Stassin to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Lucas Frédéric Stassin to score30%
- Mathieu Peybernes to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Sochaux36% probability@3.93PinnacleEV+42%reference odds
- Under 2.556% probability@1.81PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sochaux | X | 2 · Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 42% 3.93 | 3.55 | 1.96 |
Odds updated 8 Aug, 08:10
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Saint-Étienne win since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 2.08 to 1.96 (−6%).
1+9 %
28 %23 %
3.61 → 3.93
X+7 %
30 %25 %
3.32 → 3.55
2-6 %
50 %45 %
2.08 → 1.96
Over 2,50 %
49 %44 %
2.07 → 2.06
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Saint-Étienne
Saint-Étienne (59–38)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Saint-Étienne
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Saint-Étienne
| The goalkeepers | Sochaux | Gautier Larsonneur (Saint-Étienne) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | – | 77 |
| Save % | – | 68% |
| xG prevented | – | 39% |
| Claims | – | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sochaux vs Saint-Étienne according to our model?
The model gives Saint-Étienne a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sochaux 36%, draw 27%, Saint-Étienne 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.