Sochaux vs Saint-Étienne: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Ligue 28 August 2026Stade Auguste Bonal, Montbéliard24°9 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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SochauxPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Saint-Étienne (37%)

Saint-ÉtiennePossession & high press

1 · Sochaux 36%X 27%37% Saint-Étienne · 2

36%

27%

37%

Sochaux

League ranking xG #6xGA #12xT #10xP/match #11Points #8

Key players

Nicolas PaysRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.15
Alexandre MendyFxG 0.48 · xT 0.03
Julien LaporteCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.13

Saint-Étienne

Form LLLWD

League ranking xG #4xGA #8xT #3xP/match #12Points #4

Key players

Zuriko DavitashviliLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.11
Lucas StassinFxG 0.43 · xT 0.07
Maxime BernauerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Sochaux – Saint-Étienne

Predicted score matrix

Saint-Étienne →

Sochaux →

0–09.1%

0–19.5%

0–25.6%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.1%

1–113.3%

1–27.3%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.5%

2–18.4%

2–24.7%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.3%

3–13.7%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.6%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,31–1,12

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.75

Over 2,544%

@2.07

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Sochaux36% probability@3.61PinnacleEV+31%

Bookmaker	1 · Sochaux	X	2 · Saint-Étienne
Pinnacle	EV+ 31% 3.61	3.32	2.08

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04

Analysis: Sochaux – Saint-Étienne

Marcus Johansson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Thirty-six percent is a curious number in football—it's the probability given to FC Sochaux-Montbeliard to win against Saint-Etienne, according to the model. On paper, the teams appear evenly matched, with a 37% nod to Saint-Etienne, hinting at a tightly contested clash. Yet the pressure of recent form and the slight edge in points favor Saint-Etienne, suggesting they might just edge it.

Saint-Etienne leads FC Sochaux-Montbeliard in points, 61 to 51, which might suggest a gap. But delve deeper into the expected metrics, and the story gets murkier. FC Sochaux-Montbeliard actually boasts a slight advantage in xPoints, 45.9 to 45.6, indicating they've perhaps underperformed relative to their chances. Meanwhile, both teams' xG and xGA figures are neck-and-neck, with Saint-Etienne marginally leading in attack. It's a clash of near equals, despite the table saying otherwise.

FC Sochaux-Montbeliard might have home advantage, but their possession-based style will face a stern test against Saint-Etienne's high press, designed to disrupt and capitalize on errors. The expected goals show FC Sochaux-Montbeliard at 1.31 and Saint-Etienne at 1.12—hardly a gulf, but enough to make a 1-1 draw (13%) the most probable scoreline. However, the model's lean towards Saint-Etienne can't be ignored, with a 0-1 (10%) also very much in the mix.

The over/under 2.5 goals market sits at a near coin flip with 44% leaning under. Given both teams' scoring profiles and expected goal figures, a lower scoring affair feels likely. As for the betting angle, it's the odds that catch the eye. Pinnacle offers a tantalizing 3.61 on FC Sochaux-Montbeliard to win, with a model rating of 36%, a 31% value edge. If you're looking for a punt with deep value, this might be the one. But tread carefully; this isn't about certainties, it's about rolling the dice with a calculated risk.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Saint-Étienne

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Saint-Étienne (59–38)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Saint-Étienne

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Saint-Étienne

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sochaux	Saint-Étienne
Points	51	61
xPoints	45.9	45.6
xG per match	1.3	1.4
xGA per match	1.2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.21

Playing style	Sochaux	Saint-Étienne
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.5	0.63
xT per match	0.91	1.2
xTA per match	0.89	0.82
Won balls, offensive half	28	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.34
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.78	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.79
Passes per match	366	483
Passes against per match	323	304
Switches of play per match	18.9	25.9
Long balls per match	25	27

Set pieces	Sochaux	Saint-Étienne
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.06
Corners per match	5.4	5.1
Corners against per match	4.7	3.9
xG per corner	0.05	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.59
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.46

Other	Sochaux	Saint-Étienne
Throw-in control	0.66	0.7

The goalkeepers	Sochaux	Gautier Larsonneur (Saint-Étienne)
Saves	–	77
Save %	–	68%
xG prevented	–	39%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sochaux vs Saint-Étienne according to our model?

The model gives Saint-Étienne a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sochaux 36%, draw 27%, Saint-Étienne 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.