Ligue 2Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz22°7 km/hUpdated
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MetzLow block & direct
GuingampPossession controlMetz – Guingamp · Ligue 2
Metz- Ibrahima BaldéFxG 0.48 · xT 0.05
- Taïryk ArconteFxG 0.35 · xT 0.09
- Nolan GalvesRWBxG 0.1 · xT 0.17
Guingamp- Yohan DemoncyFxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
- Louis Didace MafoutaFxG 0.5 · xT 0.04
- Nelson Alpha SissokoRBxG 0 · xT 0.2
Match prediction: Metz – Guingamp
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-28%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,6Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Guingamp37% probability@3.45PinnacleEV+28%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Metz | X | 2 · Guingamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.42 | EV+ 28% 3.45 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04
Analysis: Metz – Guingamp
Marcus Johansson · · How the predictions work
Metz have been a thorn in Guingamp's side recently, winning both matchups since 2023. Despite this, the model surprisingly tilts towards Guingamp with a 37% chance of victory. Such confidence in an out-of-form team is intriguing, especially as Guingamp have stumbled through a four-match losing streak. Yet, the numbers suggest a closer contest than recent history might imply. With Metz holding a slim points lead at 62 against Guingamp's 40, and their xPoints showing a narrower margin, this game promises to be anything but straightforward.
Guingamp, despite their struggles, bring a possession-focused approach that contrasts with Metz’s direct style. The expected goals figures—1.32 for Metz and 1.27 for Guingamp—hint at a tactically rich battle. While both teams appear evenly matched in terms of xG and xGA per match, Guingamp's shaky form poses questions about their ability to capitalize on this parity. Can they convert possession into goals, or will Metz’s tenacity in front of goal, evidenced by their scoring streak, make the difference?
Metz, having scored in 10 consecutive league matches, boast an attacking consistency that could prove pivotal. This reliability, coupled with Guingamp's defensive vulnerabilities, suggests Metz might just have the edge, despite the model’s lean towards their opponents. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13% reflects this tension, with neither side dominating the odds.
With the over 2.5 goals probability finely poised at 48%, and the likelihood of both teams scoring at 53%, the numbers flirt with a low-scoring affair. A 1-0 victory for either side feels plausible, but the 1-1 draw looms large, especially given the equal expected goals. However, in the betting markets, Guingamp’s odds of 3.45 with Pinnacle offer an enticing value play for those backing the model's 37% win probability. With a 28% edge, this presents a sharp opportunity in what promises to be a tight matchup.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHead-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Metz have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
- Guingamp have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Metz | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62 | 40 |
| xPoints | 57.6 | 49.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Metz | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 253 | 434 |
| Passes against per match | 412 | 325 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.9 | 35.8 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 40 |
| Set pieces | Metz | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.56 |
| Other | Metz | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Metz | Adrian Ortola (Guingamp) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | – | 60 |
| Save % | – | 67% |
| xG prevented | – | 36% |
| Claims | – | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Metz vs Guingamp according to our model?
The model gives Guingamp a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Metz 36%, draw 27%, Guingamp 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.