Montpellier vs Dijon: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Ligue 28 August 2026Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier29°15 km/h

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MontpellierPossession control

1–1

Dijon

The model's lean: 1 · Montpellier (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Dijon @ 4.30 (+33 %)

1 · Montpellier 42%X 27%31% Dijon · 2

42%

27%

31%

Analysis: Montpellier – Dijon

Anna Karlsson · 7 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Montpellier's 42% chance of clinching victory suggests they're slight favourites, but the narrative is far from straightforward. Both sides are neck and neck in terms of expected goals, with Montpellier at 1.19 and Dijon at 1.17. This razor-thin margin sets the stage for a tightly contested affair, where neither team boasts a significant upper hand. The model points towards a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline, with a 14% probability, underscoring the balance in the matchup.

Montpellier steps onto the pitch with a model-backed nod of superiority, albeit a modest one. Despite this, the expected probability of a draw at 27% looms large, almost equal to Dijon's 31% chance of snatching a win. The 1-0 results both ways (11% each) further highlight the uncertainty. The weather isn't playing a part this time, so we're looking at raw numbers here, unadulterated by rain or wind.

Dijon, though not the bookmaker's favourite, presents an intriguing betting opportunity. Pinnacle offers value odds of 3.83 for an away win, a figure the model rates with a 31% probability, signaling a substantial 19% edge. While the numbers hint at a potential upset, remember that fewer than six games in the head-to-head data mean this context doesn't weigh heavily against form and expected goals.

With just a 42% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to find the net, the expectation leans towards a low-scoring clash. The stats suggest defensive tenacity over offensive fireworks, steering the speculative eye towards the under 2.5 goals market.

In conclusion, while Montpellier edges the probabilities slightly, Dijon's odds present a tantalizing opportunity for the daring punter. At 3.83 with Pinnacle and a 19% edge, those with a taste for risk might find their fortune in the away side.

Montpellier

Form DWWLD

League ranking xG #6xGA #12xT #10xP/match #11Points #8

Key players

Nicolas PaysRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.15
Alexandre MendyFxG 0.48 · xT 0.03
Julien LaporteCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.13

Dijon

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Montpellier 42% · Draw 27% · Dijon 31%

Match prediction: Montpellier – Dijon

Predicted score matrix

Dijon →

Montpellier →

0–09.9%

0–110.7%

0–26.5%

0–32.5%

0–4+0.9%

1–010.9%

1–113.5%

1–27.7%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.1%

2–06.7%

2–17.8%

2–24.6%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.6%

3–13.1%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-011%
3.0-111%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,19–1,17

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.74EV+1%

Over 2,542%

@2.14

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Montpellier or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Montpellier or draw (1X)65%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Nicolas Pays to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Júlio Carolino Tavares to score24%
Jordan Marié to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Dijon31% probability@4.30PinnacleEV+33%reference odds
Under 2.558% probability@1.74PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Montpellier	X	2 · Dijon
Pinnacle	1.86	3.64	EV+ 33% 4.30

Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Montpellier win since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 1.96 to 1.86 (−5%).

1-5 %

52 %47 %

1.96 → 1.86

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.60 → 3.64

2+17 %

27 %22 %

3.66 → 4.30

Over 2,50 %

47 %42 %

2.14 → 2.14

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Montpellier

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Montpellier (41–31)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Montpellier

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Montpellier

The goalkeepers	Simon Ngapandouetnbu (Montpellier)	Dijon
Saves	101	–
Save %	80%	–
xG prevented	60%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Montpellier

Fixtures, form & tips

Dijon

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Montpellier vs Dijon according to our model?

The model gives Montpellier a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Montpellier 42%, draw 27%, Dijon 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.