Montpellier vs Dijon: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Ligue 28 August 2026Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier27°18 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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MontpellierPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Montpellier (42%)

DijonPossession control

1 · Montpellier 42%X 27%31% Dijon · 2

42%

27%

31%

Montpellier

Form DWWLD

League ranking xG #6xGA #12xT #10xP/match #11Points #8

Key players

Nicolas PaysRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.15
Alexandre MendyFxG 0.48 · xT 0.03
Julien LaporteCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.13

Dijon

League ranking xG #18xGA #19xT #11xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

Teddy AverlantFxG 0.28 · xT 0.16
Yvan Ikia DimiFxG 0.13 · xT 0.05
Nordine KandilRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.18

Match prediction: Montpellier – Dijon

Predicted score matrix

Dijon →

Montpellier →

0–09.9%

0–110.7%

0–26.5%

0–32.5%

0–4+0.9%

1–010.9%

1–113.5%

1–27.7%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.1%

2–06.7%

2–17.8%

2–24.6%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.6%

3–13.1%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-011%
3.0-111%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,19–1,17

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.70

Over 2,542%

@2.14

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Dijon31% probability@3.66PinnacleEV+14%

Bookmaker	1 · Montpellier	X	2 · Dijon
Pinnacle	1.96	3.60	EV+ 14% 3.66

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04

Analysis: Montpellier – Dijon

Anna Karlsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

42% isn't just a percentage; it's a decisive nudge from the model, whispering that Montpellier has the edge over Dijon in their Ligue 2 clash. Despite the narrow expected goals separating them — Montpellier at 1.19 and Dijon at 1.17 — it's the points tally and xG stats that tell the more compelling story. With 51 points to Dijon's 24, Montpellier's dominance is clear. Their ability to generate 1.3 xG per game compared to Dijon's 0.9 further tilts the scales towards the home side.

Montpellier exudes control, a team that thrives on possession and dictates the pace, much like their opponents. Yet, the difference lies in execution. While Dijon mirrors this style, they falter at the defensive end, leaking 1.8 xGA per match. Montpellier, with a more respectable 1.2 xGA, appears more balanced and poised to capitalize on any slip-ups from their visitors.

Dijon, however, isn't stepping into this match without a glimmer of value. A 31% chance to win, coupled with Pinnacle offering odds of 3.66, translates to a tantalizing 14% edge for those willing to back the underdog. It's the kind of opportunity that sharp bettors live for, where the numbers whisper that a surprise might just be on the cards.

Bookmakers and punters alike may lean towards a tight affair, with a 1-1 scoreline priced at 14% and a 42% chance of the match staying under 2.5 goals. But the game could tilt either way, with Montpellier's 1-0 win and Dijon's mirror result both equally plausible at 11%. The tight margins tease a draw, yet the value on Dijon cannot go unnoticed.

So, while Montpellier emerges as the statistical favorite, the sharp angle beckons from the away side. A punt on Dijon at those generous odds with Pinnacle just might be the play for those chasing value in a finely balanced Ligue 2 matchup.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Montpellier

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Montpellier (41–31)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Montpellier

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Montpellier

The teams in numbers

Performance	Montpellier	Dijon
Points	51	24
xPoints	45.9	30.5
xG per match	1.3	0.9
xGA per match	1.2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.36

Playing style	Montpellier	Dijon
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.5	0.4
xT per match	0.91	0.82
xTA per match	0.89	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	28	18
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.32
Entries into the box per match	12	8
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.78	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.71
Passes per match	366	327
Passes against per match	323	385
Switches of play per match	18.9	25.7
Long balls per match	25	31

Set pieces	Montpellier	Dijon
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.06
Corners per match	5.4	4.6
Corners against per match	4.7	5.8
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.56

Other	Montpellier	Dijon
Throw-in control	0.66	0.68

The goalkeepers	Simon Ngapandouetnbu (Montpellier)	Dijon
Saves	101	–
Save %	80%	–
xG prevented	60%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Montpellier vs Dijon according to our model?

The model gives Montpellier a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Montpellier 42%, draw 27%, Dijon 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.