Ligue 2Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand24°7 km/hUpdated
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ClermontBalanced & physical
ReimsPossession controlClermont – Reims · Ligue 2
Clermont- Famara DiedhiouFxG 0.37 · xT -0.01
- Abdoul Kader BambaLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.1
- Ivan MbahiaCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
Reims- Hafiz Umar IbrahimFxG 0.47 · xT 0.02
- Keito NakamuraLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.14
- Teddy TeumaCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.22
Match prediction: Clermont – Reims
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.0-210%
- 4.1-210%
- 5.0-08%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,6Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Reims55% probability@1.97PinnacleEV+9%
- Over 2.548% probability@2.12PinnacleEV+2%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Clermont | X | 2 · Reims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.86 | 3.38 | EV+ 9% 1.97 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04
Analysis: Clermont – Reims
Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work
Reims have been the thorn in Clermont Foot's side, winning both encounters since 2023, and they’re riding high on a seven-match unbeaten streak. This is not mere luck; it’s a statement of intent from a team whose strategy revolves around possession control, dictating the tempo of matches, and suffocating opponents. The model gives Reims a commanding 55% chance to win against Clermont Foot's 21%, and with Clermont Foot's expected goals lingering at 0.99 versus Reims’ 1.60, it's hard to argue against the numbers that tip the scales heavily towards the visitors.
Clermont Foot, while balanced and physical, find themselves struggling to translate that into tangible results against top-tier opposition. With a points total of 37 compared to Reims’ 56, the gap is as much about quality as it is about execution. The expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) metrics further illuminate the chasm: Clermont Foot's xG per match stands at 0.98, trailing Reims' more robust 1.4. The defensive end tells a similar tale, with Clermont's xGA at 1.3 against Reims' 1.0, underscoring Reims' overall superiority.
Reims are not just positioned to win; they’re primed to do it efficiently. A 0-1 or 0-2 scoreline feels more probable than the 1-1 draw, given Reims' edge in both attacking and defensive metrics. Furthermore, the model’s valuation presents an enticing opportunity for punters. Pinnacle offers Reims at odds of 1.97, and with a calculated 9% edge, this represents a clear betting shot.
The goals market also throws a bone: the 48% chance for the match to go over 2.5 goals doesn't scream value at first glance, yet Pinnacle’s odds of 2.12 do offer a sliver of positive expected value (EV+) at 2%. However, the sharper bet might just be backing Reims to continue their unbeaten run with another disciplined victory.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHead-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Reims are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Clermont | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 37 | 56 |
| xPoints | 39.3 | 47.1 |
| xG per match | 0.98 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Clermont | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.64 |
| xT per match | 0.78 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.76 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 381 | 439 |
| Passes against per match | 369 | 306 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.4 | 29.4 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Clermont | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 3.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| Other | Clermont | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Theo Guivarch (Clermont) | Ewen Jaouen (Reims) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 86 | 74 |
| Save % | 67% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Clermont vs Reims according to our model?
The model gives Reims a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Clermont 21%, draw 23%, Reims 55%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.