Annecy vs Rodez: Prediction & Odds (14 Aug 2026)

Ligue 214 August 2026Parc des Sports, Annecy28°0,1 mm13 km/h

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Annecy

Rodez

The model's lean: 1 · Annecy (38%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.99 (+19 %)

1 · Annecy 38%X 33%29% Rodez · 2

38%

33%

29%

Analysis: Annecy – Rodez

Anna Karlsson · 12 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Rodez's remarkable unbeaten streak in their last 23 league matches casts a long shadow over this fixture. FC Annecy, despite the model's lean towards them, will need to reckon with Rodez's tenacity and the psychological edge they carry from their unbeaten run. However, the probability figures suggest a more nuanced battle, with FC Annecy at a 38% chance of victory, yet the numbers aren't overwhelmingly in their favor.

0-0, 1-0, and 1-1 are the scorelines floating around as most likely, with the 1-1 draw leading the pack at 14%. These numbers hint at a tight game, brimming with caution rather than creativity. FC Annecy's expected goals sit at 1.26, slightly edging Rodez's 1.03, indicating a marginal attacking edge. However, the undercurrent of Rodez's robust form might negate this slender advantage.

FC Annecy come into this on the back of a poor head-to-head showing against Rodez since 2023, with zero wins in four meetings. Though a small sample size that weighs less than current form and expected goals, it still nudges the psychological balance towards Rodez. With a 40% chance for over 2.5 goals and only 47% for both teams to score, this match seems poised for a lower-scoring affair.

Weather conditions aren't part of the equation, but the statistical lean points towards a conservative affair, making the under 1.5 goals market a compelling option. This is where the sharpest angle lies: value bettors will find a tempting proposition with under 1.5 goals at odds of 3.65 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet. The model rates the probability of this outcome at 33%, offering a juicy 20% edge. In a match where tension might suppress outright attacking flair, this value bet could be the shrewdest move. Expect a cagey 1-0 win for Annecy, if they manage to break Rodez's ironclad resolve.

Annecy

Form WWWLW

Key players

Clément BillemazLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
Thibault RambaudFxG 0.30 · xT 0.07
Ben Hamed TouréFxG 0.34 · xT 0.12

Rodez

Form WWWDW

Key players

Ibrahima BaldéFxG 0.48 · xT 0.05
Taïryk ArconteFxG 0.35 · xT 0.09
Nolan GalvesRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Annecy – Rodez

Predicted score matrix

Rodez →

Annecy →

0–010.5%

0–110.1%

0–25.4%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.6%

1–012.3%

1–113.5%

1–26.8%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.0%

2–18.3%

2–24.3%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.4%

3–13.5%

3–21.8%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-012%
3.0-010%
4.0-110%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,26–1,03

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.99EV+14%

Over 2,540%

@1.84

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Annecy or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Annecy or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Thibault Rambaud to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Ibrahima Baldé to score26%
Raphaël Lipinski to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.560% probability@1.99PinnacleEV+19%
Under 1.533% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+18%
Under 1.533% probability@3.60BetssonEV+18%

Bookmaker	1 · Annecy	X	2 · Rodez
Betsafe	2.12	EV+ 7% 3.25	3.20
Betsson	2.12	EV+ 7% 3.25	3.20
Nordicbet	2.12	EV+ 7% 3.25	3.20
Pinnacle	2.16	EV+ 12% 3.42	3.29

Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:12

Odds movement

1+1 %

46 %41 %

2.14 → 2.16

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.40 → 3.42

2-2 %

31 %26 %

3.36 → 3.29

Over 2,50 %

54 %49 %

1.83 → 1.84

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Annecy 0Draw 1Rodez 3

Goals: 5–12 (⌀ 4,2)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Rodez are unbeaten in their last 23 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Annecy

Rodez

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Annecy (1–0)

Rodez (3–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Annecy

Rodez

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Annecy

Rodez

The goalkeepers	Mohamed Abdoul Kader Koné (Annecy)	Jordan Mendes (Rodez)
Saves	2	1
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Annecy vs Rodez according to our model?

The model gives Annecy a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Annecy 38%, draw 33%, Rodez 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.