01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Saint-Étienne to win65%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Ligue 2Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Étienne27°0,3 mm18 km/h
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Saint-Étiennevs
ClermontThe model's lean: 1 · Saint-Étienne (65%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.18 (+2 %)
Saint-Étienne – Clermont · Ligue 2
1 · Saint-Étienne 65%X 19%16% Clermont · 2
65%
19%
16%
Analysis: Saint-Étienne – Clermont
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
65% is a dominant figure and tells us Saint-Etienne are primed to take this one. The numbers all point in the same direction. A home victory carries not just the weight of probability but also a hint of value, with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering odds of 1.58. The model's endorsement of those odds with a 3% edge suggests Saint-Etienne has more than just a favourable chance — there's a solid bet here.
Saint-Etienne enters with a familiar winning rhythm against Clermont Foot, having won both head-to-head matchups since 2023. While it's a tiny sample size that doesn't overshadow form and expected goals, the psychological edge can't be dismissed. Meanwhile, the expected goals tilt heavily in Saint-Etienne's favor at 1.88 to 0.92, reinforcing that they're more likely to keep Clermont Foot contained while finding the back of the net themselves.
The most likely scorelines — 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0 — give us a glimpse of how this could play out. With a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals, the goal fest isn't a guarantee, yet the slight lean suggests possibilities of Saint-Etienne flexing their offensive muscles. If weather were a factor here, it might dampen expectations, but as it stands, the model has already accounted for all known elements.
Clermont Foot's mere 16% chance of victory speaks volumes about their uphill task. While both teams to score sits at a teasing 51%, the defensive prowess of Saint-Etienne, alongside their attacking threat, could see them through with a clean sheet. The 2-0 prediction feels right; it's not just about form but about execution on the day.
Savvy bettors eyeing value should consider those home win odds of 1.58 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With a compelling 3% edge, the numbers don't just suggest a win — they practically nudge you towards the bet slip.
Saint-ÉtienneForm LLWDW
Key players
- Kévin PedroLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.15
- Jakob Breum MartinsenCAMxG 0.46 · xT 0.05
- Áron CsongvaiCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
ClermontForm LDWWD
Key players
- Famara DiedhiouFxG 0.37 · xT -0.01
- Abdoul Kader BambaLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.10
- Ivan MbahiaCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Saint-Étienne – Clermont
Predicted score matrix
Clermont →
Saint-Étienne →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.4%
0–15.3%
0–22.6%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–011.1%
1–110.8%
1–24.8%
1–31.5%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.7%
2–19.9%
2–24.6%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–06.7%
3–16.2%
3–22.9%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–04.9%
4+–14.5%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-011%
- 2.1-111%
- 3.2-011%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,88–0,92
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.18EV+1%
Over 2,553%
@1.69
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Saint-Étienne to win65%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- João Diogo Fonseca Ferreira to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- João Diogo Fonseca Ferreira to score26%
- Ivan Adnan Joshua M'Bahia to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.547% probability@2.18PinnacleEV+2%
- 1 · Saint-Étienne65% probability@1.55BetsafeEV+1%
- 1 · Saint-Étienne65% probability@1.55BetssonEV+1%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Saint-Étienne | X | 2 · Clermont |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 1.55 | 3.95 | 5.15 |
| Betsson | EV+ 1% 1.55 | 3.95 | 5.15 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 1.55 | 3.95 | 5.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 4.35 | 5.64 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:35
Odds movement
1-4 %
63 %58 %
1.59 → 1.52
X+6 %
25 %20 %
4.11 → 4.35
2+9 %
20 %15 %
5.18 → 5.64
Over 2,5-1 %
59 %54 %
1.70 → 1.69
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSaint-Étienne 2Draw 0Clermont 0
Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Saint-Étienne
Clermont
Saint-Étienne (3–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Saint-Étienne
Clermont
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Saint-Étienne
Clermont
| The goalkeepers | Julien Le Cardinal (Saint-Étienne) | Yoann Salmier (Clermont) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 1 |
| Save % | 100% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Saint-Étienne vs Clermont according to our model?
The model gives Saint-Étienne a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Saint-Étienne 65%, draw 19%, Clermont 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.