01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Saint-Étienne to win65%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Ligue 2Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Étienne17°2,1 mm6 km/h
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Saint-Étiennevs
GrenobleThe model's lean: 1 · Saint-Étienne (65%)
Saint-Étienne – Grenoble · Ligue 2
1 · Saint-Étienne 65%X 21%14% Grenoble · 2
65%
21%
14%
Analysis: Saint-Étienne – Grenoble
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Saint-Etienne boasts a solid 65% probability of victory against Grenoble, setting a clear expectation for the match. The model is firmly in their corner, with expected goals painting a stark picture: Saint-Etienne 1.99, Grenoble a meager 0.87. While recent head-to-head encounters have been deadlocked with two draws since 2023, this small sample size doesn’t weigh heavily against the current form and statistical projection favoring Saint-Etienne.
Grenoble faces an uphill battle with only a 14% chance of snatching three points. Their blunt attack this season isn’t expected to trouble Saint-Etienne’s defense significantly. The model's most likely scorelines—2-0 and 1-0—underline this, each standing at an 11% likelihood. Despite the head-to-head stalemates, Saint-Etienne’s superior quality should tip the scales in their favor this time.
With a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, the match could see multiple goals, though the 50% both teams to score probability suggests that might largely be one-sided. The weather isn’t muddying the pitch, so to speak, and the model’s numbers reflect a clear pattern: goals are on the cards, but not necessarily from both ends.
Saint-Etienne’s dominance in this analysis is clear, with a 2-0 victory the most likely outcome. However, for those with a betting inclination, the sharpest angle lies in the value for under 2.5 goals at odds 2.22. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer this, boasting a slight edge at a 46% probability. While Saint-Etienne should deliver, this value play suggests a touch of caution amid the potential for a lower-scoring affair.
Saint-ÉtienneForm LWDWW
Key players
- Maxime BernauerCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
- Jakob Breum MartinsenCAMxG 0.75 · xT 0.03
- Kévin PedroLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
GrenobleForm DWWLD
Key players
- Yadaly DiabyLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
- Nesta ZahuiRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.18
- Matthéo XantippeLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: Saint-Étienne – Grenoble
Predicted score matrix
Grenoble →
Saint-Étienne →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–14.7%
0–22.2%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–011.1%
1–110.2%
1–24.3%
1–31.2%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–011.4%
2–19.9%
2–24.3%
2–31.2%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–07.5%
3–16.5%
3–22.8%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–05.9%
4+–15.1%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
1,99–0,87
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.10
Over 2,554%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Saint-Étienne to win65%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Irvin Charly Jose Cardona to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Irvin Charly Jose Cardona to score34%
- Baptiste Mouazan to be booked23%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Saint-Étienne | X | 2 · Grenoble |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.41 | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| Betsson | 1.41 | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| Nordicbet | 1.41 | 4.40 | 6.40 |
Odds updated 17 Aug, 12:35
Odds movement
1+4 %
69 %64 %
1.36 → 1.41
X-4 %
23 %18 %
4.60 → 4.40
2-9 %
16 %11 %
7.00 → 6.40
Over 2,5+3 %
60 %55 %
1.60 → 1.65
Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 17/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSaint-Étienne 0Draw 2Grenoble 0
Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Saint-Étienne
Grenoble
Saint-Étienne (6–1)
Grenoble (2–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Saint-Étienne
Grenoble
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Saint-Étienne
Grenoble
| The goalkeepers | Julien Le Cardinal (Saint-Étienne) | Alexandre Olliero (Grenoble) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 3 |
| Save % | 100% | 43% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 13% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Saint-Étienne vs Grenoble according to our model?
The model gives Saint-Étienne a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Saint-Étienne 65%, draw 21%, Grenoble 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.