Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt: Prediction & Odds (18 Sept 2026)

2. Bundesliga18 September 2026Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg15°2,4 mm12 km/h

Läs på svenska

WolfsburgPossession control

DarmstadtLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Wolfsburg (51%)Best value by the model: 2 · Darmstadt @ 4.90 (+10 %)

1 · Wolfsburg 51%X 26%22% Darmstadt · 2

51%

26%

22%

Analysis: Wolfsburg – Darmstadt

Sofia Andersson · 10 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A stark contrast in expected goals highlights the disparity between Wolfsburg and Darmstadt. With the hosts averaging an impressive 2.3 xG per match compared to the visitors' 0.65, Wolfsburg's attacking prowess is evident. Darmstadt's recent form amplifies this gap, as they come off three consecutive losses, struggling not only in points but also in underlying metrics. Wolfsburg's 1.71 expected goals against Darmstadt's 1.20 suggests a match where the home side should dominate possession and chances.

While the model gives Wolfsburg a 51% chance of winning, the most likely scorelines, including a 1-1 prediction at 11%, introduce some tension. The 2-1 scoreline at 10% aligns more closely with the expected goals, supporting a lean towards a narrow victory for the hosts. Darmstadt's direct style and low defensive block could pose sporadic threats, but with only 0.65 xG per match, goals are likely to be at a premium for the visitors.

The over 2.5 goals at 56% reflects a slightly more goal-rich expectation, yet the sharper angle is Wolfsburg's victory. This assessment is based on the substantial discrepancy in xG and recent performances.

Wolfsburg

Form DWWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #7xT #3xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Fabian ReeseLWxG 0.56 · xT 0.27
Alexander Olof BernhardssonRWxG 0.37 · xT 0.26
Joakim MæhleRWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.23

Darmstadt

Form LDLLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #16xT #18xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

Florian KleinhanslLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
Milan SmitFxG 0.19 · xT 0.03
Yosuke FurukawaLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Wolfsburg – Darmstadt

Predicted score matrix

Darmstadt →

Wolfsburg →

0–05.7%

0–16.2%

0–23.9%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.6%

1–09.0%

1–111.5%

1–26.7%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.9%

2–19.6%

2–25.7%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.5%

3–15.5%

3–23.3%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.9%

4+–13.4%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,71–1,20

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

–

Over 2,556%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Wolfsburg to win51%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Wolfsburg to win51%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Dženan Pejčinović to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Dženan Pejčinović to score30%
Hiroki Akiyama to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Darmstadt22% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
2 · Darmstadt22% probability@4.90BetssonEV+10%reference odds
2 · Darmstadt22% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wolfsburg	X	2 · Darmstadt
Betsafe	1.55	EV+ 10% 4.15	EV+ 10% 4.90
Betsson	1.55	EV+ 10% 4.15	EV+ 10% 4.90
Nordicbet	1.55	EV+ 10% 4.15	EV+ 10% 4.90

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:39

Statistics

Key facts

Darmstadt have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wolfsburg

Darmstadt

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wolfsburg (10–6)

Darmstadt (2–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wolfsburg

Darmstadt

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wolfsburg

Darmstadt

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wolfsburg	Darmstadt
Points	8	1
xPoints	7	2.9
xG per match	2.3	0.65
xGA per match	1.4	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.49

Playing style	Wolfsburg	Darmstadt
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.55	0.3
xT per match	1.4	0.59
xTA per match	0.92	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	26	27
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.16
Entries into the box per match	15	9
Entries into the box against	13	24
Pass completion %	0.78	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.72
Passes per match	395	321
Passes against per match	310	497
Switches of play per match	21.2	18.5
Long balls per match	36	25

Set pieces	Wolfsburg	Darmstadt
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.08
Corners per match	6.8	4.6
Corners against per match	7	7.9
xG per corner	0.05	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.41	0.47

Other	Wolfsburg	Darmstadt
Throw-in control	0.75	0.72

The goalkeepers	Jakub Zieliński (Wolfsburg)	Marcel Schuhen (Darmstadt)
Saves	14	19
Save %	70%	73%
xG prevented	45%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Wolfsburg

Fixtures, form & tips

Darmstadt

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt according to our model?

The model gives Wolfsburg a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wolfsburg 51%, draw 26%, Darmstadt 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.