Preussen Münster vs Ingolstadt: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

3. Liga15 August 202625°2,1 mm11 km/h

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Preussen Münster

Ingolstadt

The model's lean: 2 · Ingolstadt (40%)

1 · Preussen Münster 34%X 26%40% Ingolstadt · 2

34%

26%

40%

Analysis: Preussen Münster – Ingolstadt

Erik Lindberg · 10 August 2026 · How the predictions work

The numbers tell a compelling story: FC Ingolstadt 04 are slight favourites with a 40% chance of taking all three points against Preussen Munster, who sit at 34%. The model also leans towards Ingolstadt, and with good reason. Their expected goals of 1.79 surpass Munster's 1.32, suggesting a sharper attacking edge for the visitors. In a league where the margins are often fine, this could be the key differentiator.

Preussen Munster will not be easily brushed aside, though. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, with an 11% probability, highlights their potential to make this a competitive affair. Munster's recent form has shown resilience, and they'll be eager to leverage their home advantage. However, their defence will be tested by an Ingolstadt side that seems poised to exploit any lapses.

FC Ingolstadt 04 may well fancy their chances of a narrow victory, given the 9% likelihood of a 1-2 scoreline. Their attacking unit, statistically, holds the edge, and if they can translate their expected goals into actual goals, they could leave Munster with a valuable away win. Yet, with a small sample size of head-to-head encounters, it's crucial to focus more on current form rather than historical scraps of data.

Given the probability of over 2.5 goals sitting at 60%, this match could see its fair share of attacking action. Both teams to score is pegged at 61%, reinforcing the notion that neither side will sit back. This aligns with the anticipated open play style, though caution should be observed if adverse weather conditions are in play, as rain or wind may dampen goal-scoring opportunities.

With FC Ingolstadt 04 having the edge, the most likely score leans towards a 1-2 victory for the visitors. For punters looking for value, Bet365 offers odds on FC Ingolstadt 04 at 2.50, presenting a potentially attractive bet. While guarantees are elusive in football, the numbers point towards an Ingolstadt win, with goals expected to flow.

Preussen Münster

Ingolstadt

Form WLWWD

Key players

Marcel CostlyRWxG 0.46 · xT 0.23
Simon LorenzCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
Max BesuschkowCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Preussen Münster – Ingolstadt

Predicted score matrix

Ingolstadt →

Preussen Münster →

0–04.7%

0–17.7%

0–27.1%

0–34.3%

0–4+2.9%

1–05.6%

1–110.8%

1–29.4%

1–35.6%

1–4+3.8%

2–03.9%

2–17.0%

2–26.2%

2–33.7%

2–4+2.5%

3–01.7%

3–13.1%

3–22.8%

3–31.6%

3–4+1.1%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.0-27%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,32–1,79

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.25

Over 2,560%

@1.64

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Ingolstadt or draw (X2)72%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Ingolstadt or draw (X2)72%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Emre Gül to score13%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Shin Yamada to score28%
Yassine Bouchama to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Ingolstadt40% probability@2.88BetsafeEV+15%
2 · Ingolstadt40% probability@2.88BetssonEV+15%
2 · Ingolstadt40% probability@2.88NordicbetEV+15%

Bookmaker	1 · Preussen Münster	X	2 · Ingolstadt
Betfair Exchange	1.04	1.08	1.04
Betsafe	2.28	3.35	EV+ 15% 2.88
Betsson	2.28	3.35	EV+ 15% 2.88
Nordicbet	2.28	3.35	EV+ 15% 2.88
Pinnacle	2.30	3.65	EV+ 11% 2.77

Odds updated 13 Aug, 12:23

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ingolstadt

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ingolstadt (2–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ingolstadt

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ingolstadt

The goalkeepers	Preussen Münster	David Klein (Ingolstadt)
Saves	–	1
Save %	–	33%
xG prevented	–	32%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Preussen Münster vs Ingolstadt according to our model?

The model gives Ingolstadt a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Preussen Münster 34%, draw 26%, Ingolstadt 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.