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Viktoria KölnPossession control
Jahn RegensburgPossession controlViktoria Köln – Jahn Regensburg · 3. Liga
Viktoria Köln- David OttoFxG 0.26 · xT 0.13
- Lex Tyger LobingerFxG 0.78 · xT 0.04
- Benjamin Merlin ZankFxG 0.27 · xT 0.04
Jahn Regensburg- Christian KühlwetterFxG 0.28 · xT 0.11
- Eric HottmannFxG 0.37 · xT 0.09
- Adrian FeinCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Viktoria Köln – Jahn Regensburg
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,9Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Viktoria Köln44% probability@2.39PinnacleEV+5%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Viktoria Köln | X | 2 · Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 5% 2.39 | 3.73 | 2.64 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04
Analysis: Viktoria Köln – Jahn Regensburg
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
A 44% chance for Viktoria Koln to claim victory speaks volumes in a tightly contested 3. Liga clash where every point is precious. They're riding slightly ahead in the points tally with 51, just a hair above Jahn Regensburg's 49. When the teams last met, Viktoria Koln emerged unbeaten, notching a win and a draw. It's a small sample size, but it suggests an edge in this head-to-head. Viktoria Koln’s home odds of 2.39 with Pinnacle present a tantalising 5% edge, making it a value bet you might not want to overlook.
Viktoria Koln's expected goals (xG) of 1.57 against Jahn Regensburg's 1.30 suggests a slight lean towards the home side. Yet Jahn Regensburg's marginally superior xG per match at 1.7 points to their ability to carve out chances. Both teams share a similar affinity for possession control, hinting at a tactical tussle where seizing the moment could prove decisive. In a game where subtle differences matter, Viktoria’s lower expected goals against (xGA) of 1.4 compared to Jahn Regensburg’s 1.5 suggests a more robust defensive core.
Jahn Regensburg's 32% chance of winning doesn’t spark much confidence, especially considering their past struggles against this opponent. The expected goals narrative here sets the stage for an intriguing 1-1 draw, the most likely score per the model. Yet, with Viktoria Koln's probability of registering a 2-1 or 1-0 win each at 9%, that edge in the model’s favour skews the picture towards a home win.
With the odds favouring an over 2.5 goals scenario at 55%, and both teams to score pegged at 58%, goal action seems more probable than not. However, it's Viktoria Koln’s home value at 2.39 with Pinnacle that stands out as the sharpest betting angle. If you're looking for a punt that aligns with both numbers and narrative, backing Viktoria Koln to edge past Jahn Regensburg seems the most sensible play.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHead-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Viktoria Köln | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51 | 49 |
| xPoints | 56.7 | 55.3 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Viktoria Köln | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| Passes per match | 383 | 296 |
| Passes against per match | 355 | 354 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.8 | 16.5 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Viktoria Köln | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| Other | Viktoria Köln | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Eduardo dos Santos Haesler (Viktoria Köln) | Felix Karl-Ernst Gebhardt (Jahn Regensburg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 64 | 103 |
| Save % | 73% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Viktoria Köln vs Jahn Regensburg according to our model?
The model gives Viktoria Köln a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viktoria Köln 44%, draw 25%, Jahn Regensburg 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.