Saarbrücken vs Rot-Weiss Essen: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

3. Liga9 August 202621°1,8 mm10 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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SaarbrückenCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Rot-Weiss Essen (38%)

Rot-Weiss EssenPossession control

1 · Saarbrücken 37%X 25%38% Rot-Weiss Essen · 2

37%

25%

38%

Saarbrücken

Form DWWLL

League ranking xG #5xGA #12xT #5xP/match #6Points #15

Key players

Florian PickFxG 0.29 · xT 0.27
Kai BrunkerFxG 0.5 · xT -0.02
Niko BretschneiderLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.19

Rot-Weiss Essen

Form LLLWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #15xT #10xP/match #10Points #3

Key players

Kaito MizutaLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.18
Marek JanssenFxG 0.53 · xT 0.05
Dickson AbiamaLWxG 0.39 · xT 0.18

Match prediction: Saarbrücken – Rot-Weiss Essen

Predicted score matrix

Rot-Weiss Essen →

Saarbrücken →

0–04.0%

0–16.0%

0–25.3%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.9%

1–05.7%

1–110.4%

1–28.5%

1–34.8%

1–4+3.0%

2–04.8%

2–18.1%

2–26.8%

2–33.8%

2–4+2.4%

3–02.5%

3–14.3%

3–23.6%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.3%

4+–01.4%

4+–12.4%

4+–22.1%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-16%

Expected goals

1,60–1,69

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,536%

–

Over 2,564%

–

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Saarbrücken	X	2 · Rot-Weiss Essen
Pinnacle	2.68	3.71	2.37

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04

Analysis: Saarbrücken – Rot-Weiss Essen

Sofia Andersson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Thirteen matches on the trot with a goal for Rot-Weiss Essen is not a streak to be underestimated. This level of consistent firepower frames their visit to Saarbrucken with a palpable tension. Despite Saarbrucken's superior head-to-head record since 2024, winning three of the four encounters, the numbers suggest a more complex narrative this time around. Expect the visitors to maintain their scoring form, especially with an expected goals tally slightly edging Saarbrucken's at 1.69 to 1.60.

Saarbrucken's counter-attacking prowess, coupled with their ability to exploit crosses, will test Rot-Weiss Essen’s possession-oriented approach. Yet, the model probabilities tilt ever so slightly towards Rot-Weiss Essen with a 38% chance of victory compared to Saarbrucken's 37%. It's a razor-thin margin, but one worth considering given Rot-Weiss Essen's current league position and scoring form.

Rot-Weiss Essen have accumulated a substantial 70 points to Saarbrucken’s 44, and their slight edge in xG per match at 1.8 versus 1.7 underscores their attacking efficiency. However, Saarbrucken’s relative defensive resilience, as illustrated by their xGA per match of 1.6 compared to Rot-Weiss Essen’s 1.8, suggests they won't go down easily. Both teams are primed to find the back of the net, with a 65% chance of both scoring and a 64% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.

A 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable scoreline, but the 1-2 to Rot-Weiss Essen follows closely. Given the model's lean and Rot-Weiss Essen's form, a 2-1 away victory is certainly within the realm of possibility. The over 2.5 goals angle is enticing, with BetVictor offering odds at 1.80, providing potential value for those inclined to back a goal-fest.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Saarbrücken 3Draw 0Rot-Weiss Essen 1

Goals: 8–4 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

Key facts

Rot-Weiss Essen have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Saarbrücken

Rot-Weiss Essen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Saarbrücken (51–57)

Rot-Weiss Essen (78–66)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Saarbrücken

Rot-Weiss Essen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Saarbrücken

Rot-Weiss Essen

The teams in numbers

Performance	Saarbrücken	Rot-Weiss Essen
Points	44	70
xPoints	55.8	54.5
xG per match	1.7	1.8
xGA per match	1.6	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.23

Playing style	Saarbrücken	Rot-Weiss Essen
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.52	0.5
xT per match	1.1	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	27	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.36
Entries into the box per match	14	14
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.7
Passes per match	353	320
Passes against per match	371	327
Switches of play per match	25.6	18.5
Long balls per match	35	29

Set pieces	Saarbrücken	Rot-Weiss Essen
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.08
Corners per match	7.2	6
Corners against per match	4.7	5.7
xG per corner	0.06	0.08
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.6

Other	Saarbrücken	Rot-Weiss Essen
Throw-in control	0.68	0.76

The goalkeepers	Phillip Menzel (Saarbrücken)	Jakob Golz (Rot-Weiss Essen)
Saves	124	90
Save %	69%	65%
xG prevented	52%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Saarbrücken vs Rot-Weiss Essen according to our model?

The model gives Rot-Weiss Essen a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Saarbrücken 37%, draw 25%, Rot-Weiss Essen 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.