3. Liga

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    HavelseHavelseLow block & direct
    2–3
    VfB Stuttgart IIVfB Stuttgart IIPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · VfB Stuttgart II (44%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.84 (+2 %)

    Havelse vs VfB Stuttgart II · 3. Liga

    1 · Havelse 30%X 26%44% VfB Stuttgart II · 2

    Analysis: Havelse – VfB Stuttgart II

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Twelve matches. That's the streak VfB Stuttgart II rides into this clash, having netted in every single league fixture. It's a telling stat that underscores their attacking prowess and makes them the favorites in this matchup. The model gives them a 44% chance to take all three points against Havelse, who only manage a 30% likelihood of a win themselves. This isn't just a case of being in form; it's about a team that knows how to find the back of the net with regularity.

    Havelse comes into this encounter with an xPoints tally of 48.6, which intriguingly surpasses VfB Stuttgart II's 45.0. However, the raw points tell a different story: Havelse lag behind with 35 points to Stuttgart's 46. Their playing style, characterized by low defense and direct play, may struggle against a VfB Stuttgart II side that thrives on possession control. The head-to-head record is scant, with just two games since 2024, split evenly at one win apiece, rendering it almost irrelevant against the backdrop of current form and expected goals.

    Speaking of expected goals, this game promises to be anything but a bore, with a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. The model anticipates a lively affair, projecting xG figures of 1.44 for Havelse and 1.97 for VfB Stuttgart II. The most likely scoreline? A balanced 1-1 seems possible, but the 1-2 in favor of VfB Stuttgart II feels like a strong contender, given their consistent scoring form.

    VfB Stuttgart II, with their superior goal-scoring form and control in the game, look poised to edge this contest, potentially 2-1. Yet, the sharpest angle lies in the betting market under 3.5 goals, presenting a 2% edge at odds of 1.833 with Pinnacle. It's an EV+ play that respects the models while acknowledging the attacking trends of both sides.

    HavelseHavelse
    Form LWLWL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #20xT #20xP/match #14Points #17
    Key players
    • Marko IlicFxG 0.11 · xT 0.15
    • John Xaver PosseltFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
    • Arlind RexhepiFxG 0.08 · xT 0.12
    VfB Stuttgart IIVfB Stuttgart II
    Form DLWLL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #14xT #3xP/match #17Points #14
    Key players
    • Mansour Ouro-TagbaFxG 0.33 · xT 0.10
    • Noah Yanis DarvichRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.18
    • Leny MeyerLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.17
    Final score
    2 – 3
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Havelse 30% · Draw 26% · VfB Stuttgart II 44%

    Match prediction: Havelse – VfB Stuttgart II

    Predicted score matrix

    VfB Stuttgart II →
    Havelse →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.6%
    0–16.2%
    0–26.4%
    0–34.2%
    0–4+3.3%
    1
    1–04.5%
    1–19.6%
    1–29.2%
    1–36.1%
    1–4+4.7%
    2
    2–03.4%
    2–16.7%
    2–26.7%
    2–34.4%
    2–4+3.4%
    3
    3–01.6%
    3–13.2%
    3–23.2%
    3–32.1%
    3–4+1.6%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.6%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-17%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.0-26%
    Expected goals
    1,44–1,97
    Both teams to score
    66%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,534%
    –
    Over 2,566%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance VfB Stuttgart II or draw (X2)72%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    62%

    Fair odds

    1.60

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance VfB Stuttgart II or draw (X2)72%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Mohamed Ortaim Sankoh to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score66%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Mohamed Ortaim Sankoh to score23%
    • Samuele Di Benedetto to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 3.556% probability@1.84PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · HavelseX2 · VfB Stuttgart II
    Pinnacle3.213.822.08

    Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    32 %27 %

    3.19 → 3.21

    X-7 %
    26 %21 %

    4.12 → 3.82

    2+7 %
    50 %45 %

    1.95 → 2.08

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Havelse 1Draw 0VfB Stuttgart II 1
    Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • VfB Stuttgart II have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Havelse
    VfB Stuttgart II
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Havelse (57–89)
    VfB Stuttgart II (57–69)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Havelse
    Julius Düker: 153 passningar, xT 0.32DükerJohann Berger: 136 passningar, xT 0.25BergerBesfort Leutrim Kolgeci: 130 passningar, xT 0.31KolgeciSemi Belkahia: 128 passningar, xT 0.12BelkahiaNorman Quindt: 113 passningar, xT 0.24QuindtMarko Ilic: 103 passningar, xT 0.81IlicNassim Boujellab: 93 passningar, xT 0.14BoujellabArlind Rexhepi: 88 passningar, xT 0.31RexhepiDennis Duah: 83 passningar, xT 0.06DuahLeon Sommer: 78 passningar, xT 1.02SommerEmre Aytun: 59 passningar, xT 0.25Aytun
    VfB Stuttgart II
    Christopher Olivier: 251 passningar, xT 1.02OlivierNicolas Sessa: 216 passningar, xT 0.26SessaLeny Meyer: 204 passningar, xT 0.93MeyerSamuele Di Benedetto: 189 passningar, xT 0.43BenedettoMaximilian Herwerth: 140 passningar, xT 0.16HerwerthNoah Yanis Darvich: 131 passningar, xT 1.71DarvichTim Kohler: 131 passningar, xT 0.4KohlerMirza Ćatović: 114 passningar, xT 0.23ĆatovićDominik Nothnagel: 91 passningar, xT 0.14NothnagelJustin Diehl: 84 passningar, xT 0.49DiehlJeremy Alberto Arévalo Mera: 69 passningar, xT 0.22Mera
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Havelse
    Julius Düker: 153 passningar, xT 0.32DükerJohann Berger: 136 passningar, xT 0.25BergerBesfort Leutrim Kolgeci: 130 passningar, xT 0.31KolgeciSemi Belkahia: 128 passningar, xT 0.12BelkahiaNorman Quindt: 113 passningar, xT 0.24QuindtMarko Ilic: 103 passningar, xT 0.81IlicNassim Boujellab: 93 passningar, xT 0.14BoujellabArlind Rexhepi: 88 passningar, xT 0.31RexhepiDennis Duah: 83 passningar, xT 0.06DuahLeon Sommer: 78 passningar, xT 1.02SommerEmre Aytun: 59 passningar, xT 0.25Aytun
    VfB Stuttgart II
    Christopher Olivier: 251 passningar, xT 1.02OlivierNicolas Sessa: 216 passningar, xT 0.26SessaLeny Meyer: 204 passningar, xT 0.93MeyerSamuele Di Benedetto: 189 passningar, xT 0.43BenedettoMaximilian Herwerth: 140 passningar, xT 0.16HerwerthNoah Yanis Darvich: 131 passningar, xT 1.71DarvichTim Kohler: 131 passningar, xT 0.4KohlerMirza Ćatović: 114 passningar, xT 0.23ĆatovićDominik Nothnagel: 91 passningar, xT 0.14NothnagelJustin Diehl: 84 passningar, xT 0.49DiehlJeremy Alberto Arévalo Mera: 69 passningar, xT 0.22Mera

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHavelseVfB Stuttgart II
    Points3546
    xPoints48.645
    xG per match1.31.6
    xGA per match21.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.27
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.31
    Playing styleHavelseVfB Stuttgart II
    Build-up efficiency0.310.32
    Field tilt0.410.56
    xT per match0.831.2
    xTA per match1.41.1
    Won balls, offensive half2423
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.290.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.340.39
    Entries into the box per match1013
    Entries into the box against1613
    Pass completion %0.70.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.650.73
    Passes per match278393
    Passes against per match374300
    Switches of play per match11.922.5
    Long balls per match2531
    Set piecesHavelseVfB Stuttgart II
    xG from free kicks0.10.07
    Corners per match4.55.1
    Corners against per match6.35
    xG per corner0.060.04
    xGA per corner against0.060.07
    First touch, offensive corners %0.320.45
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.6
    OtherHavelseVfB Stuttgart II
    Throw-in control0.670.72
    The goalkeepersTom Opitz (Havelse)Florian Pascal Hellstern (VfB Stuttgart II)
    Saves11696
    Save %68%69%
    xG prevented47%48%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Havelse
    Fixtures, form & tips
    VfB Stuttgart II
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Havelse vs VfB Stuttgart II according to our model?

    The model gives VfB Stuttgart II a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Havelse 30%, draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart II 44%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.