Ingolstadt vs Wurzburger Kickers: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

3. Liga8 August 202622°11 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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IngolstadtCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Ingolstadt (57%)

Wurzburger KickersPossession control

1 · Ingolstadt 57%X 17%25% Wurzburger Kickers · 2

57%

17%

25%

Ingolstadt

Form LWLWW

League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #1xP/match #5Points #12

Key players

Marcel CostlyRWxG 0.46 · xT 0.23
Simon LorenzCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
Max BesuschkowCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.13

Wurzburger Kickers

League ranking xG #19xGA #18xT #16xP/match #19Points #18

Key players

Marvin StefaniakLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
Marcel BarFxG 0.4 · xT 0.08
Jannic EhlersFxG 0.19 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Ingolstadt – Wurzburger Kickers

Predicted score matrix

Wurzburger Kickers →

Ingolstadt →

0–02.6%

0–12.9%

0–22.0%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.4%

1–05.6%

1–17.7%

1–24.9%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.1%

2–19.2%

2–26.0%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–05.8%

3–17.5%

3–24.9%

3–32.1%

3–4+0.9%

4+–06.3%

4+–18.2%

4+–25.3%

4+–32.3%

4+–4+1.0%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-19%
2.1-18%
3.3-17%
4.2-07%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

2,45–1,30

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,7

18%

217%

321%

419%

5+32%

Under 2,528%

@1.25

Over 2,572%

@1.02

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Ingolstadt	X	2 · Wurzburger Kickers
Betfair Exchange	1.27	1.10	1.27

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04

Analysis: Ingolstadt – Wurzburger Kickers

Anna Karlsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Seventy-two percent is the probability of over 2.5 goals when FC Ingolstadt 04 face Wurzburger Kickers. That's a hefty figure, one that doesn't just whisper, but shouts the direction this match is likely to take. The counter-attacking flair of FC Ingolstadt 04 going head-to-head against a possession-hungry Wurzburger Kickers sets the stage for a goal-fest, and the expected goals (xG) tally of 2.45 for the home side versus 1.30 for the visitors adds weight to this expectation.

FC Ingolstadt 04's season so far has been defined by their superior point tally of 49 compared to Wurzburger Kickers' 34, and a look at expected points (xPoints) further highlights their edge—56.0 to 43.1. Their approach of swift counters and precision crosses has effectively dismantled numerous opponents, and given Wurzburger's defensive frailty, evidenced by their xGA of 1.8 per match, Ingolstadt's attack is poised to capitalize.

Wurzburger Kickers might aim to dictate play with their possession-oriented strategy, but with just a 25% chance of victory according to model probabilities, they face an uphill battle. The most likely scoreline, according to the models, is 2-1 in favour of FC Ingolstadt 04—a testament to their attacking prowess and the propensity for both defences to concede. The fact that both teams to score sits at 67% lends credence to a scenario where both sides find the net.

FC Ingolstadt 04, starting with such a statistical advantage, are earmarked as favourites by the models, and the betting markets often mirror such analysis. A potential value bet (EV+) emerges with FC Ingolstadt 04 to win at odds of 1.75 with Bet365. While nothing is guaranteed in football, these numbers suggest a home victory with goals aplenty is the most plausible outcome.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ingolstadt

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Ingolstadt (65–56)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ingolstadt

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ingolstadt

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ingolstadt	Wurzburger Kickers
Points	49	34
xPoints	56	43.1
xG per match	1.8	1.3
xGA per match	1.5	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.29

Playing style	Ingolstadt	Wurzburger Kickers
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.4	0.46
xT per match	1.4	0.98
xTA per match	1.1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	28	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.33
Entries into the box per match	14	12
Entries into the box against	15	15
Pass completion %	0.73	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.7
Passes per match	334	323
Passes against per match	349	368
Switches of play per match	20.8	23.6
Long balls per match	34	35

Set pieces	Ingolstadt	Wurzburger Kickers
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.07
Corners per match	4.5	5.3
Corners against per match	5.9	6.2
xG per corner	0.07	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.57

Other	Ingolstadt	Wurzburger Kickers
Throw-in control	0.75	0.74

The goalkeepers	Kai Eisele (Ingolstadt)	Wurzburger Kickers
Saves	110	–
Save %	76%	–
xG prevented	49%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ingolstadt vs Wurzburger Kickers according to our model?

The model gives Ingolstadt a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ingolstadt 57%, draw 17%, Wurzburger Kickers 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 72% and under at 28%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.