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Alemannia AachenPossession control
VerlPossession controlAlemannia Aachen – Verl · 3. Liga
Alemannia Aachen- Mika SchroersFxG 0.25 · xT 0.13
- Jonas OehmichenLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.18
- Lars GindorfCAMxG 0.6 · xT 0.21
Verl- Berkan TazLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.16
- Fynn OttoCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.15
- Timur GayretCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.18
Match prediction: Alemannia Aachen – Verl
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.0-17%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,0Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.564% probability@1.71PinnacleEV+9%
- 2 · Verl33% probability@3.20PinnacleEV+7%
- X · Draw27% probability@3.94PinnacleEV+5%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Alemannia Aachen | X | 2 · Verl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | EV+ 5% 3.94 | EV+ 7% 3.20 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04
Analysis: Alemannia Aachen – Verl
Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work
Twelve matches unbeaten: that's the impressive run Alemannia Aachen are riding into their clash with Verl. It's not just the results but the manner of this streak, marked by an 18-match scoring spree, reflecting a squad finely attuned to finding the back of the net. Yet, Verl are no strangers to resilience, possessing a similar penchant for controlling possession. Both sides mirror each other’s tactical approach, setting the stage for a midfield battle where control will be fiercely contested.
Alemannia Aachen, despite their unbeaten streak, have a mixed record against Verl in recent encounters, showing one win, one draw, and two losses since 2024. This suggests that Verl knows a thing or two about unsettling their opponents, particularly when both teams are likely to see an equal share of the ball. The model leans towards Alemannia Aachen, giving them a 40% chance of victory, but with such a narrow edge, Verl's 33% chance shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.
Numbers paint a picture of a tightly contested match: Alemannia Aachen have an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.56, barely edging out Verl’s 1.48. However, Verl's superior defense (xGA at 1.3 vs. Aachen’s 1.7) might be the crucial factor. The most probable scoreline, 1-1, reflects the balance of strengths and weaknesses these teams possess. With 59% odds for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, the match promises a flow that could tilt either way.
Verl at odds of 3.2 with Pinnacle carries a value lean, although it's a cautious one with just a 7% edge according to the model. Yet, for those eyeing a more measured approach, the under 3.5 goals at 1.709, also with Pinnacle, offers a solid 9% edge. While the spectacle of goals might entice, the smarter play leans towards a controlled affair.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesHead-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Key facts
- Alemannia Aachen are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.
- Alemannia Aachen have scored in 18 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Alemannia Aachen | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64 | 64 |
| xPoints | 52.3 | 43.3 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Alemannia Aachen | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.67 |
| xT per match | 0.98 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.99 | 0.77 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 265 | 530 |
| Passes against per match | 345 | 223 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.1 | 23.9 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Alemannia Aachen | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 6.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| Other | Alemannia Aachen | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Jan Olschowsky (Alemannia Aachen) | Philipp Schulze (Verl) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 60 | 94 |
| Save % | 63% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Alemannia Aachen vs Verl according to our model?
The model gives Alemannia Aachen a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alemannia Aachen 40%, draw 27%, Verl 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.