3. Liga

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    Hoffenheim IIHoffenheim IIPossession control
    2–3
    Hansa RostockHansa RostockPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Hansa Rostock (53%)Best value by the model: 1 · Hoffenheim II @ 4.45 (+7 %)

    Hoffenheim II vs Hansa Rostock · 3. Liga

    1 · Hoffenheim II 24%X 23%53% Hansa Rostock · 2

    Analysis: Hoffenheim II – Hansa Rostock

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    63% is a striking figure, pointing confidently towards a home win for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II, despite their lower points tally of 43 compared to FC Hansa Rostock's 67. A glance at the xPoints tells a slightly different story, though, with the teams closer in potential than the current standings might suggest: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II at 47.7 versus FC Hansa Rostock's 54.5. This underscores the potential for an upset, especially at Pinnacle’s odds of 3.99, where the model spots a tantalizing 151% edge in backing the home side.

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II might just have the upper hand, but it's not a narrative of dominance. Both teams play with a possession-control style, adding layers of tactical intrigue more than explosive flair. An expected goals tally of 2.12 for Hoffenheim's reserves against Rostock's 1.02 suggests that the hosts might see more of the ball and more of the chances. Yet, Rostock's xGA of 1.3 per match, a defensive solidity Hoffenheim's 1.8 can't match, signals that breaking them down won't be a walk in the park.

    Scoring 2-1, 2-0, or even a 1-1 draw are the top probabilities here, each at 10%. The model's inclination towards over 2.5 goals at 61% suggests a match that could open up, but with both sides keen on holding onto the ball, moments of creativity might be fleeting. The numbers see goals, yet the nature of these side-by-side styles might stifle more than they spark.

    FC Hansa Rostock may have the edge in traditional metrics, but the value lies with Hoffenheim II, particularly with their home advantage and Pinnacle’s odds skewing in their favor. And while goals could fly, there's more than a whisper of value in the under 3.5 market at 1.729, offering a 6% edge. In a clash of possession-focused philosophies, the subtler play might just be the sharper one.

    Hoffenheim IIHoffenheim II
    League ranking xG #14xGA #16xT #14xP/match #16Points #16
    Key players
    • Ayoube Amaimouni-EchghouyabRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.16
    • Deniz ZeitlerLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.09
    • Luka DjuricCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.15
    Hansa RostockHansa Rostock
    Form DLDWW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #6xP/match #9Points #5
    Key players
    • Ryan NaderiFxG 0.63 · xT 0.08
    • Andreas VoglsammerFxG 0.44 · xT 0.08
    • Emil Frost HoltenFxG 0.59 · xT 0.06
    Final score
    2 – 3
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Hoffenheim II 24% · Draw 23% · Hansa Rostock 53%

    Match prediction: Hoffenheim II – Hansa Rostock

    Predicted score matrix

    Hansa Rostock →
    Hoffenheim II →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.6%
    0–16.5%
    0–26.8%
    0–34.6%
    0–4+3.7%
    1
    1–04.3%
    1–19.5%
    1–29.4%
    1–36.3%
    1–4+5.1%
    2
    2–03.2%
    2–16.4%
    2–26.5%
    2–34.4%
    2–4+3.5%
    3
    3–01.5%
    3–13.0%
    3–23.0%
    3–32.0%
    3–4+1.6%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-27%
    4. 4.2-26%
    5. 5.0-16%
    Expected goals
    1,38–2,02
    Both teams to score
    65%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,534%
    –
    Over 2,566%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Hansa Rostock to win53%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    45%

    Fair odds

    2.20

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Hansa Rostock to win53%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Adrien Lebeau to score16%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score65%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Fisnik Asllani to score27%
    • Kenan Fatkic to be booked26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Hoffenheim II24% probability@4.45PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Hoffenheim IIX2 · Hansa Rostock
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 7%
    4.45    		4.321.66

    Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:10

    Odds movement

    1+12 %
    25 %20 %

    3.99 → 4.45

    X+2 %
    25 %20 %

    4.23 → 4.32

    2-2 %
    58 %53 %

    1.70 → 1.66

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 07/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hansa Rostock
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Hansa Rostock (74–49)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hansa Rostock
    Marco Schuster: 185 passningar, xT 0.34SchusterAhmet Gurleyen: 162 passningar, xT 0.14GurleyenBenjamin Uphoff: 153 passningar, xT 0.36UphoffErik Viktor Bergh: 142 passningar, xT 0.26BerghFlorian Carstens: 142 passningar, xT 0.29CarstensLukas Wallner: 126 passningar, xT 0.23WallnerNico Neidhart: 104 passningar, xT 0.29NeidhartJonas Dirkner: 102 passningar, xT 0.48DirknerFranz Pfanne: 87 passningar, xT 0.09PfanneAdrien Lebeau: 83 passningar, xT 0.36LebeauLukas Kunze: 79 passningar, xT 0.11Kunze
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hansa Rostock
    Marco Schuster: 185 passningar, xT 0.34SchusterAhmet Gurleyen: 162 passningar, xT 0.14GurleyenBenjamin Uphoff: 153 passningar, xT 0.36UphoffErik Viktor Bergh: 142 passningar, xT 0.26BerghFlorian Carstens: 142 passningar, xT 0.29CarstensLukas Wallner: 126 passningar, xT 0.23WallnerNico Neidhart: 104 passningar, xT 0.29NeidhartJonas Dirkner: 102 passningar, xT 0.48DirknerFranz Pfanne: 87 passningar, xT 0.09PfanneAdrien Lebeau: 83 passningar, xT 0.36LebeauLukas Kunze: 79 passningar, xT 0.11Kunze

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHoffenheim IIHansa Rostock
    Points4367
    xPoints47.754.5
    xG per match1.51.8
    xGA per match1.81.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.160.32
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.260.22
    Playing styleHoffenheim IIHansa Rostock
    Build-up efficiency0.340.28
    Field tilt0.520.56
    xT per match11.1
    xTA per match1.30.85
    Won balls, offensive half2429
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.320.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.370.36
    Entries into the box per match1214
    Entries into the box against1311
    Pass completion %0.780.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.71
    Passes per match399377
    Passes against per match324284
    Switches of play per match23.318.8
    Long balls per match3430
    Set piecesHoffenheim IIHansa Rostock
    xG from free kicks0.080.09
    Corners per match4.16.1
    Corners against per match5.94.8
    xG per corner0.070.07
    xGA per corner against0.040.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.410.48
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.7
    OtherHoffenheim IIHansa Rostock
    Throw-in control0.740.74
    The goalkeepersHoffenheim IIBenjamin Uphoff (Hansa Rostock)
    Saves–115
    Save %–71%
    xG prevented–43%
    Claims–0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Hoffenheim II
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Hansa Rostock
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hoffenheim II vs Hansa Rostock according to our model?

    The model gives Hansa Rostock a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hoffenheim II 24%, draw 23%, Hansa Rostock 53%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Viktoria KölnViktoria Köln
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.