Duisburg vs SV Meppen: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

3. Liga8 August 202622°11 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

Läs på svenska

DuisburgLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Duisburg (75%)

SV MeppenPossession control

1 · Duisburg 75%X 13%12% SV Meppen · 2

75%

13%

12%

Duisburg

Form WLWDD

League ranking xG #16xGA #2xT #17xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Lex Tyger LobingerFxG 0.49 · xT -0.01
Thilo TopkenFxG 0.45 · xT 0
Conor NoßRWxG 0.2 · xT 0.08

SV Meppen

League ranking xG #13xGA #10xT #12xP/match #13Points #8

Key players

Sigurd HaugenFxG 0.41 · xT 0.1
Patrick HobschFxG 0.47 · xT 0.01
Florian NiederlechnerFxG 0.25 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Duisburg – SV Meppen

Predicted score matrix

SV Meppen →

Duisburg →

0–02.7%

0–12.2%

0–21.2%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–06.8%

1–16.8%

1–23.1%

1–31.0%

1–4+0.3%

2–09.4%

2–19.0%

2–24.3%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–08.6%

3–18.1%

3–23.9%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–011.2%

4+–110.6%

4+–25.1%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-09%
2.2-19%
3.3-09%
4.3-18%
5.1-17%

Expected goals

2,72–0,95

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,7

19%

217%

321%

419%

5+31%

Under 2,529%

@1.27

Over 2,571%

@1.04

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Duisburg75% probability@1.63Betfair ExchangeEV+22%

Bookmaker	1 · Duisburg	X	2 · SV Meppen
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 22% 1.63	4.00	1.62

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04

Analysis: Duisburg – SV Meppen

Oscar Nilsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

75% is a hefty probability in any book, and MSV Duisburg has the model's endorsement to come out on top against SV Meppen in this 3. Liga clash. MSV Duisburg's penchant for a low defence yet direct approach could spell trouble for the possession-oriented SV Meppen. One might argue that this clash of tactics leans in Duisburg's favour, especially when you consider that they're sitting on 68 points compared to Meppen's 56.

SV Meppen might boast a slightly better xG per match at 1.5 compared to Duisburg's 1.4, but this advantage is somewhat neutralized by their leaky defence, which concedes 1.5 xGA per match. Duisburg, with an xGA of 1.2, seems to handle their backline duties with a tad more discipline. These defensive frailties hint that Duisburg's direct style could pierce through Meppen's possession-heavy game plan, especially given the expected goals for Duisburg are pegged at a commanding 2.72.

MSV Duisburg clearly have the upper hand, not just in points but in expected points as well, 60.4 to Meppen's 50.5. The odds, as they're currently set, provide an interesting opportunity. A home win for Duisburg at 1.63 with Betfair Exchange represents a 22% edge, a value bet that's hard to ignore when the model pegs a Duisburg victory at 75%.

It's hard to look past a 2-0 or 3-0 win for Duisburg, both carrying a likely 9% chance, especially in light of their superior goal-scoring prospects and Meppen's defensive vulnerabilities. With a 71% probability for over 2.5 goals, the lean is certainly toward a goal-fest, albeit potentially one-sided. While both teams to score sits at 57%, Duisburg's defensive setup might just shut the door on Meppen. All considered, backing the home side looks like the sharpest play here.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Duisburg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Duisburg (66–49)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Duisburg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Duisburg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Duisburg	SV Meppen
Points	68	56
xPoints	60.4	50.5
xG per match	1.4	1.5
xGA per match	1.2	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.21

Playing style	Duisburg	SV Meppen
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.5	0.46
xT per match	0.95	1
xTA per match	0.91	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	29	25
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.35
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.72	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.68
Passes per match	293	336
Passes against per match	380	347
Switches of play per match	17.9	21.1
Long balls per match	32	34

Set pieces	Duisburg	SV Meppen
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.12
Corners per match	5.2	5.3
Corners against per match	4	6
xG per corner	0.07	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.62

Other	Duisburg	SV Meppen
Throw-in control	0.72	0.72

The goalkeepers	Maximilian Braune (Duisburg)	SV Meppen
Saves	111	–
Save %	71%	–
xG prevented	46%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Duisburg vs SV Meppen according to our model?

The model gives Duisburg a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Duisburg 75%, draw 13%, SV Meppen 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 71% and under at 29%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.