Wehen Wiesbaden vs Preussen Münster: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

3. Liga8 August 202622°10 km/h

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Wehen WiesbadenPossession control

1–3

Preussen Münster

The model's lean: 1 · Wehen Wiesbaden (53%)

1 · Wehen Wiesbaden 53%X 23%23% Preussen Münster · 2

53%

23%

Analysis: Wehen Wiesbaden – Preussen Münster

Erik Lindberg · 7 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

A 53% probability favors SV Wehen Wiesbaden against Preussen Munster, pointing to the home side as the more likely victor. This isn't just a matter of formality. The numbers reveal a pattern where SV Wehen Wiesbaden seems to have the upper hand, especially with expected goals of 1.60 compared to Preussen Munster's 1.04. A clear indicator of this matchup’s dynamics.

SV Wehen Wiesbaden may not have a long head-to-head history with Preussen Munster—meaning the form and expected goals carry more weight this time around. The model's inclination towards a possible 1-1 or 1-0 scoreline further underscores the narrow margin by which SV Wehen Wiesbaden is expected to edge out their opponents. The slight favor towards under 2.5 goals at 49% suggests a tight contest, potentially suppressing goal-scoring opportunities.

Preussen Munster, with a 23% chance of winning, seems to be on the back foot. Their expected goals of just over one suggest they could find it tough to break through a potentially resolute home defense. SV Wehen Wiesbaden's defensive solidity might just tip the scales in a low-scoring affair, especially as the expected 1-0 scoreline mirrors the model's lean.

A notable betting angle emerges with SV Wehen Wiesbaden valued at odds of 2.54 with Pinnacle—a compelling 36% edge according to the model. This represents an enticing opportunity for those looking to back the favorites. Additionally, the under 2.5 goals line at odds of 2.03 offers a smaller edge but still notable, hinting at a match with limited scoring chances.

Ultimately, my money's on a 1-0 win for SV Wehen Wiesbaden, given their stronger expected goals and home advantage. For those keen on betting angles, the value on a home win shouldn't be overlooked, especially with Pinnacle's odds presenting a ripe opportunity.

Wehen Wiesbaden

Form DDLLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #9xP/match #11Points #9

Key players

Moritz FlothoFxG 0.54 · xT 0.08
Tarik GozusirinCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
Niklas MayLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20

Preussen Münster

Final score

1 – 3

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Wehen Wiesbaden 53% · Draw 23% · Preussen Münster 23%

Match prediction: Wehen Wiesbaden – Preussen Münster

Predicted score matrix

Preussen Münster →

Wehen Wiesbaden →

0–07.5%

0–17.1%

0–23.9%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–011.1%

1–112.2%

1–26.2%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.1%

2–19.5%

2–24.9%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.9%

3–15.1%

3–22.6%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.8%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,60–1,04

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@2.06EV+5%

Over 2,549%

@1.77

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Wehen Wiesbaden to win53%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Wehen Wiesbaden to win53%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Moritz Flotho to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Shin Yamada to score25%
Yassine Bouchama to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Wehen Wiesbaden53% probability@2.54PinnacleEV+36%reference odds
Under 2.551% probability@2.06PinnacleEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wehen Wiesbaden	X	2 · Preussen Münster
Betfair Exchange	1.32	1.10	1.32
Pinnacle	EV+ 36% 2.54	3.44	2.71

Odds updated 8 Aug, 08:10

Odds movement

1-5 %

39 %34 %

2.67 → 2.54

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.42 → 3.44

2+9 %

39 %34 %

2.48 → 2.71

Over 2,5+4 %

57 %52 %

1.71 → 1.77

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wehen Wiesbaden

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Wehen Wiesbaden (54–52)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wehen Wiesbaden

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wehen Wiesbaden

The goalkeepers	Noah Brdar (Wehen Wiesbaden)	Preussen Münster
Saves	67	–
Save %	71%	–
xG prevented	41%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Wehen Wiesbaden

Fixtures, form & tips

Preussen Münster

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wehen Wiesbaden vs Preussen Münster according to our model?

The model gives Wehen Wiesbaden a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wehen Wiesbaden 53%, draw 23%, Preussen Münster 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.