Wehen Wiesbaden vs Preussen Münster: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

3. Liga8 August 202622°9 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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Wehen WiesbadenPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Wehen Wiesbaden (53%)

Preussen MünsterLow block & direct

1 · Wehen Wiesbaden 53%X 23%23% Preussen Münster · 2

53%

23%

Wehen Wiesbaden

Form DDLLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #9xP/match #11Points #9

Key players

Moritz FlothoFxG 0.54 · xT 0.08
Tarik GozusirinCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
Niklas MayLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.2

Preussen Münster

League ranking xG #16xGA #2xT #17xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Lex Tyger LobingerFxG 0.49 · xT -0.01
Thilo TopkenFxG 0.45 · xT 0
Conor NoßRWxG 0.2 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Wehen Wiesbaden – Preussen Münster

Predicted score matrix

Preussen Münster →

Wehen Wiesbaden →

0–07.5%

0–17.1%

0–23.9%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–011.1%

1–112.2%

1–26.2%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.1%

2–19.5%

2–24.9%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.9%

3–15.1%

3–22.6%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.8%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,60–1,04

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.25

Over 2,549%

@1.02

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Wehen Wiesbaden	X	2 · Preussen Münster
Betfair Exchange	1.32	1.10	1.32

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04

Analysis: Wehen Wiesbaden – Preussen Münster

Erik Lindberg · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

53% is the key figure here, and it's not just any number; it's the model's probability of SV Wehen Wiesbaden claiming victory against Preussen Munster. Despite a seemingly strong case for the home side, the numbers present a nuanced picture. Preussen Munster may have amassed more points in the league, with 68 compared to Wiesbaden's 53, but the expected points tell a slightly different story. With an xPoints tally of 53.4 for SV Wehen Wiesbaden against Preussen Munster's 60.4, it's clear that the visitors have been punching a bit above their weight.

SV Wehen Wiesbaden takes to the pitch with a possession-heavy style, seeking to control the tempo. In contrast, Preussen Munster employs a low defensive block, relying on direct play to counter. This tactical clash is intriguing, especially with the expected goals tilting slightly towards Wiesbaden (1.60 to Munster's 1.04). The most likely scoreline, according to the models, is a 1-1 draw, occurring 12% of the time, but a 1-0 win for the hosts isn't far behind at 11%.

Preussen Munster has a tighter defense, reflected in their xGA per match of 1.2 compared to SV Wehen Wiesbaden's 1.5. However, Wiesbaden's slight edge in xG per match (1.5 to 1.4) suggests they might just find the key to unlock Munster's backline. With both teams to score sitting at 52%, it seems there's enough firepower on both sides to light up the scoreboard.

Preussen Munster to win is priced at evens with some bookmakers, highlighting an interesting value play given their superior points haul and defensive record. Yet, if you trust the model's lean, backing SV Wehen Wiesbaden at 53% probability might be the way to go, especially with odds suggesting a potential payout just over that implied probability. The sharpest angle may lie in backing the home side to edge it 1-0, leaning slightly under 2.5 goals, given the direct and defensive nature of Munster's approach.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wehen Wiesbaden

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Wehen Wiesbaden (54–52)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wehen Wiesbaden

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wehen Wiesbaden

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wehen Wiesbaden	Preussen Münster
Points	53	68
xPoints	53.4	60.4
xG per match	1.5	1.4
xGA per match	1.5	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.19

Playing style	Wehen Wiesbaden	Preussen Münster
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.47	0.5
xT per match	1.1	0.95
xTA per match	0.89	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	25	29
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.34
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.67
Passes per match	332	293
Passes against per match	379	380
Switches of play per match	15.8	17.9
Long balls per match	27	32

Set pieces	Wehen Wiesbaden	Preussen Münster
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.15
Corners per match	5.2	5.2
Corners against per match	5.4	4
xG per corner	0.07	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.62

Other	Wehen Wiesbaden	Preussen Münster
Throw-in control	0.72	0.72

The goalkeepers	Noah Brdar (Wehen Wiesbaden)	Preussen Münster
Saves	67	–
Save %	71%	–
xG prevented	41%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wehen Wiesbaden vs Preussen Münster according to our model?

The model gives Wehen Wiesbaden a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wehen Wiesbaden 53%, draw 23%, Preussen Münster 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.