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HoffenheimPossession control
Hansa RostockPossession controlHoffenheim – Hansa Rostock · 3. Liga
Hoffenheim- Ayoube Amaimouni-EchghouyabRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.16
- Deniz ZeitlerLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.09
- Luka DjuricCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.15
Hansa Rostock- Ryan NaderiFxG 0.63 · xT 0.08
- Andreas VoglsammerFxG 0.44 · xT 0.08
- Emil Frost HoltenFxG 0.59 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Hoffenheim – Hansa Rostock
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.2-010%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-17%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,1Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Hoffenheim63% probability@4.02PinnacleEV+153%
- Under 3.561% probability@1.74PinnacleEV+7%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hoffenheim | X | 2 · Hansa Rostock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 153% 4.02 | 4.26 | 1.70 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04
Analysis: Hoffenheim – Hansa Rostock
Marcus Johansson · · How the predictions work
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II enter their clash with FC Hansa Rostock holding a strong 63% probability of victory, according to the model. Yet, the tension here is palpable; Hoffenheim II may be favoured, but they trail their opponents by a significant 24 points in the standings. Their xPoints, slightly more competitive, still favour Rostock at 54.5 to 47.7. So, can the model's numbers justify backing the underdogs?
Despite Hoffenheim II's apparent inferiority in the league table, they boast a potent attacking setup with an xG of 1.5 per match. However, their defensive frailty, reflected in an xGA of 1.8, suggests vulnerabilities that a more clinical Hansa Rostock, with an xG of 1.8, could exploit. The model still leans towards a Hoffenheim II win, perhaps seeing value in their ability to control possession and dictate play. If the model's confidence translates on the pitch, a 2-1 or 2-0 win seems plausible.
FC Hansa Rostock, riding on the strength of their superior points tally, won't be easy prey. Their robust defense, allowing just 1.3 xGA per match, could stifle Hoffenheim II's offensive aspirations. Rostock's possession-based style mirrors their opponents', setting the stage for a tactical chess match. Yet, with both sides favouring ball control, the question remains: will this lead to fireworks or a stalemate?
61% odds suggest there will be over 2.5 goals, and both teams are likely to score, making this match ripe for goals. Yet, shrewd bettors might turn their eyes towards the under 3.5 goals market. Pinnacle offers odds of 1.735 on under 3.5, a tempting prospect given the model rates it at a 61% chance, offering a 7% edge. In a match where both teams' strengths and weaknesses align intriguingly, this could be the sharpest angle for value hunters.
Hoffenheim II's odds of 4.02 with Pinnacle also present a stunning 153% edge according to the model. While FC Hansa Rostock's solid season gives them an edge in the standings and xPoints, the potential value of backing Hoffenheim II at these odds is a siren call to those daring enough to trust the model's bold prediction.
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hoffenheim | Hansa Rostock |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43 | 67 |
| xPoints | 47.7 | 54.5 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Hoffenheim | Hansa Rostock |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.85 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 399 | 377 |
| Passes against per match | 324 | 284 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.3 | 18.8 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Hoffenheim | Hansa Rostock |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 6.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.7 |
| Other | Hoffenheim | Hansa Rostock |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Hoffenheim | Benjamin Uphoff (Hansa Rostock) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | – | 115 |
| Save % | – | 71% |
| xG prevented | – | 43% |
| Claims | – | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hoffenheim vs Hansa Rostock according to our model?
The model gives Hoffenheim a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hoffenheim 63%, draw 20%, Hansa Rostock 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.