01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Verl to win47%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
3. Liga22°0,6 mm9 km/h
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VerlPossession controlvs
DuisburgLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Verl (47%)
Verl – Duisburg · 3. Liga
1 · Verl 47%X 25%28% Duisburg · 2
47%
25%
28%
Analysis: Verl – Duisburg
Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work
Two matches, two victories for MSV Duisburg over Verl since 2024 — a head-to-head advantage, albeit from a slim sample, that might catch the eye. Yet, delve into the undercurrents of this clash, and it's Verl poised with the sharper edge. Despite trailing Duisburg in the points race (64 against 68) and xPoints (43.3 to 60.4), Verl holds court in the expected goals battle, a crucial metric fueled by their control-heavy style compared to Duisburg's low-block, direct approach.
Verl's expected goals tally of 1.63 suggests a team not shy in front of goal, and when combined with Duisburg's 1.30, the model leans toward a scoreline with goals for both sides. Most likely outcomes hover around 1-1, but a 2-1 tilt in favour of Verl garners a 9% probability. With 56% leaning towards over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, the numbers hint at a lively affair, despite Verl's possession game clashing with Duisburg’s defensive setup.
Verl's apparent superiority in crafting opportunities coupled with home advantage aligns with the model's 47% win probability for them. This points to a potential narrow victory, a sentiment echoed by expected goals and the more likely 2-1 scoreline. Weather disruptions aren't in play, so conditions should suit Verl's progressive style.
MSV Duisburg might have the historical edge, but Verl's current trajectory and Pinnacle's odds suggest value lies with the home team at 2.25. The model's assessment offers a 6% edge, not a guarantee but a savvy wager, given Verl's tactical blueprint and statistical backing. With Verl's possession game likely to dictate, expect them to edge it, making a 2-1 home win more than just a possibility.
VerlForm WLWLW
League ranking xG #12xGA #3xT #7xP/match #18Points #6
Key players
- Berkan TazLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.16
- Fynn OttoCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.15
- Timur GayretCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.18
DuisburgForm WLWDD
League ranking xG #16xGA #2xT #17xP/match #2Points #4
Key players
- Lex Tyger LobingerFxG 0.49 · xT -0.01
- Thilo TopkenFxG 0.45 · xT 0.00
- Conor NoßRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Verl – Duisburg
Predicted score matrix
Duisburg →
Verl →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–16.7%
0–24.5%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–08.4%
1–111.7%
1–27.4%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–07.1%
2–19.2%
2–26.0%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–03.9%
3–15.0%
3–23.2%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–12.9%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,63–1,30
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.18
Over 2,556%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Verl to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Marco Wörner to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Lex-Tyger Lobinger to score24%
- Joshua Chima Eze to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Verl47% probability@2.95PinnacleEV+39%
- 1 · Verl47% probability@2.92BetsafeEV+38%
- 1 · Verl47% probability@2.92BetssonEV+38%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Verl | X | 2 · Duisburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 38% 2.92 | 3.45 | 2.20 |
| Betsson | EV+ 38% 2.92 | 3.45 | 2.20 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 38% 2.92 | 3.45 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 39% 2.95 | 3.65 | 2.19 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 12:23
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Duisburg win since 10 August — the odds have shortened from 2.82 to 2.19 (−22%).
1+31 %
42 %32 %
2.26 → 2.95
X-1 %
30 %20 %
3.67 → 3.65
2-22 %
43 %33 %
2.82 → 2.19
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesVerl 0Draw 0Duisburg 2
Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 5,5)
Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Verl
Duisburg
Verl (82–48)
Duisburg (66–49)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Verl
Duisburg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Verl
Duisburg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Verl | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64 | 68 |
| xPoints | 43.3 | 60.4 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Verl | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.67 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.95 |
| xTA per match | 0.77 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 530 | 293 |
| Passes against per match | 223 | 380 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.9 | 17.9 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Verl | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Corners per match | 6.2 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| Other | Verl | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Philipp Schulze (Verl) | Maximilian Braune (Duisburg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 94 | 111 |
| Save % | 67% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Verl vs Duisburg according to our model?
The model gives Verl a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Verl 47%, draw 25%, Duisburg 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.