3. Liga26°9 km/h

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    Wurzburger KickersWurzburger KickersPossession control
    vs
    Wehen WiesbadenWehen WiesbadenPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Wehen Wiesbaden (63%)

    Wurzburger Kickers – Wehen Wiesbaden · 3. Liga

    1 · Wurzburger Kickers 16%X 21%63% Wehen Wiesbaden · 2

    Analysis: Wurzburger Kickers – Wehen Wiesbaden

    Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work

    63% is a potent probability, and it’s stamped on SV Wehen Wiesbaden’s chances in this clash against Wurzburger Kickers. The odds, sitting at 2.45 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offer a juicy edge of 53%. This isn't just a fluke in the numbers; it's a calculated opportunity. Wiesbaden’s scoring streak, ringing true in eight consecutive league matches, underscores their attacking prowess.

    SV Wehen Wiesbaden are more than just favourites by a model's whim; they are driven by a high-pressing, possession-oriented strategy that has yielded an impressive 2.4 xG per match. In contrast, Wurzburger Kickers hover at just 0.99 xG, casting their chances into the shadows despite having the lone point advantage in the league. The dynamic suggests a likely offensive onslaught from Wiesbaden, particularly with a model-leaning 1-2 scoreline being the most probable outcome.

    Wurzburger Kickers, despite their possession control style, seem set to struggle against Wiesbaden’s relentless press. While they boast a slight defensive edge with an xGA of 1.9 against Wiesbaden’s 2.2, the numbers suggest they’ll be kept busy at the back. The expected goals (1.25 for Wurzburger, 2.21 for Wiesbaden) hint at a match that could see both nets ripple, aligning with the 64% probability of both teams scoring.

    The over 2.5 goals probability at 67% dovetails with the broader narrative of a high-scoring affair. But the sharpest angle here for bettors is the EV+ value in backing Wiesbaden at 2.45. When models and momentum converge this starkly, it’s worth heeding. I’m tipping SV Wehen Wiesbaden to make good on their dominance with a 2-1 victory, nudging past that over 2.5 line in a match that promises dynamic offensive football.

    Wurzburger KickersWurzburger Kickers
    Form D
    League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #10xP/match #10Points #8
    Wehen WiesbadenWehen Wiesbaden
    Form DLLWL
    League ranking xG #1xGA #12xT #5xP/match #8Points #12
    Key players
    • Moritz FlothoFxG 0.54 · xT 0.08
    • Tarik GozusirinCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
    • Niklas MayLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20

    Match prediction: Wurzburger Kickers – Wehen Wiesbaden

    Predicted score matrix

    Wehen Wiesbaden →
    Wurzburger Kickers →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.4%
    0–16.7%
    0–27.6%
    0–35.6%
    0–4+5.2%
    1
    1–03.7%
    1–18.9%
    1–29.6%
    1–37.1%
    1–4+6.6%
    2
    2–02.5%
    2–15.4%
    2–26.0%
    2–34.4%
    2–4+4.1%
    3
    3–01.0%
    3–12.3%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.9%
    3–4+1.7%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.7%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-210%
    2. 2.1-19%
    3. 3.0-28%
    4. 4.1-37%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,25–2,21
    Both teams to score
    64%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,5
    Under 2,533%
    @2.50
    Over 2,567%
    @1.71EV+9%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Wehen Wiesbaden to win63%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.92

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Wehen Wiesbaden to win63%
    • Over 2.5 goals67%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.26

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score64%
    • Over 2.5 goals67%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.82

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Wehen Wiesbaden63% probability@2.75PinnacleEV+72%
    • 2 · Wehen Wiesbaden63% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+64%
    • 2 · Wehen Wiesbaden63% probability@2.62BetssonEV+64%
    Bookmaker1 · Wurzburger KickersX2 · Wehen Wiesbaden
    Betfair Exchange1.081.081.08
    Betsafe2.453.30
    EV+ 64%
    2.62
    Betsson2.453.30
    EV+ 64%
    2.62
    Nordicbet2.453.30
    EV+ 64%
    2.62
    Paddy Power2.603.75
    EV+ 38%
    2.20
    Pinnacle2.433.40
    EV+ 72%
    2.75

    Odds updated 12 Aug, 20:09

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    41 %36 %

    2.41 → 2.43

    X+1 %
    30 %25 %

    3.36 → 3.40

    2+1 %
    37 %32 %

    2.72 → 2.75

    Over 2,5+1 %
    58 %53 %

    1.69 → 1.71

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 12/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • SV Wehen Wiesbaden have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Wurzburger Kickers
    Wehen Wiesbaden
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Wurzburger Kickers (2–2)
    Wehen Wiesbaden (1–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Wurzburger Kickers
    Ebrahim Farahnak: 26 passningar, xT 0.07FarahnakDaniel Hagele: 23 passningar, xT 0.02HageleJohann Hipper: 21 passningar, xT 0.06HipperDavid Abrangao: 21 passningar, xT 0.02AbrangaoIvan Franjic: 20 passningar, xT 0.04FranjicLiam Omore: 19 passningar, xT 0.14OmoreNathan De Medina: 16 passningar, xT 0.03MedinaTarsis Bonga: 16 passningar, xT 0.04BongaDavid Kinsombi: 14 passningar, xT 0.02KinsombiNamrud Embaye: 10 passningar, xT -0.01EmbayeTim Kraus: 3 passningar, xT 0.16Kraus
    Wehen Wiesbaden
    Justin Janitzek: 72 passningar, xT 0.19JanitzekMax Julian Brandt: 39 passningar, xT 0.07BrandtJakob Lewald: 36 passningar, xT 0.28LewaldTarik Gozusirin: 35 passningar, xT 0.14GozusirinJordy Gillekens: 31 passningar, xT 0.02GillekensFlorian Stritzel: 30 passningar, xT 0.12StritzelFabian Greilinger: 25 passningar, xT 0.03GreilingerPhilipp Maximilian Hercher: 22 passningar, xT 0.05HercherMoritz Flotho: 18 passningar, xT 0.05FlothoSinan Karweina: 16 passningar, xT 0.2KarweinaNiklas May: 11 passningar, xT -0.01May
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Wurzburger Kickers
    Ebrahim Farahnak: 26 passningar, xT 0.07FarahnakDaniel Hagele: 23 passningar, xT 0.02HageleJohann Hipper: 21 passningar, xT 0.06HipperDavid Abrangao: 21 passningar, xT 0.02AbrangaoIvan Franjic: 20 passningar, xT 0.04FranjicLiam Omore: 19 passningar, xT 0.14OmoreNathan De Medina: 16 passningar, xT 0.03MedinaTarsis Bonga: 16 passningar, xT 0.04BongaDavid Kinsombi: 14 passningar, xT 0.02KinsombiNamrud Embaye: 10 passningar, xT -0.01EmbayeTim Kraus: 3 passningar, xT 0.16Kraus
    Wehen Wiesbaden
    Justin Janitzek: 72 passningar, xT 0.19JanitzekMax Julian Brandt: 39 passningar, xT 0.07BrandtJakob Lewald: 36 passningar, xT 0.28LewaldTarik Gozusirin: 35 passningar, xT 0.14GozusirinJordy Gillekens: 31 passningar, xT 0.02GillekensFlorian Stritzel: 30 passningar, xT 0.12StritzelFabian Greilinger: 25 passningar, xT 0.03GreilingerPhilipp Maximilian Hercher: 22 passningar, xT 0.05HercherMoritz Flotho: 18 passningar, xT 0.05FlothoSinan Karweina: 16 passningar, xT 0.2KarweinaNiklas May: 11 passningar, xT -0.01May

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWurzburger KickersWehen Wiesbaden
    Points10
    xPoints11.2
    xG per match0.992.4
    xGA per match1.92.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.710.03
    Playing styleWurzburger KickersWehen Wiesbaden
    Build-up efficiency0.350.31
    Field tilt0.540.8
    xT per match0.771.3
    xTA per match1.40.49
    Won balls, offensive half2735
    Pressing intensity0.20.21
    Pressing efficiency0.240.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.150.23
    Entries into the box per match822
    Entries into the box against133
    Pass completion %0.60.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.530.63
    Passes per match197354
    Passes against per match349261
    Switches of play per match15.318.6
    Long balls per match2639
    Set piecesWurzburger KickersWehen Wiesbaden
    xG from free kicks00.27
    Corners per match3.16.9
    Corners against per match4.12
    xG per corner0.090.05
    xGA per corner against0.050.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.57
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.5
    OtherWurzburger KickersWehen Wiesbaden
    Throw-in control0.760.72
    The goalkeepersJohann Hipper (Wurzburger Kickers)Florian Stritzel (Wehen Wiesbaden)
    Saves33
    Save %60%50%
    xG prevented27%7%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Wurzburger Kickers vs Wehen Wiesbaden according to our model?

    The model gives Wehen Wiesbaden a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wurzburger Kickers 16%, draw 21%, Wehen Wiesbaden 63%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.