Kalamata vs Volos: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Greek Super League12 September 202626°18 km/h

KalamataCounter-attacks & crosses

VolosPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Volos (44%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 9.20 (+43 %)

Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

1 · Kalamata 32%X 24%44% Volos · 2

32%

24%

44%

Analysis: Kalamata – Volos

Marcus Johansson · 7 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Kalamata's counter-attacking approach will clash with Volos's possession-heavy style in a match poised to be a strategic battle. The hosts lean on quick transitions and crossing into the box, hoping to exploit any gaps left by the visitors, who will try to dictate the flow of the game through ball control. With Volos slightly edged in both xPoints and xG per match, they appear marginally better equipped to handle the dynamics of this encounter.

Recent form offers a clear picture: Volos holds a slim advantage with their higher expected goals per match (0.94 to Kalamata’s 0.82) and superior defensive metrics, allowing just 1.2 xGA compared to Kalamata’s concerning 1.9. Despite these statistical edges, the expected goals for both sides hover closely around 1.4, suggesting chances for both teams. This could tilt the scales towards a balanced contest, reflected in the most likely scorelines being 1-1 and 1-2.

While the model probabilities give Volos a 44% chance of victory, the goal market hints at possibilities for fireworks. The over 2.5 goals sits at 53%, with both teams to score at 57%, indicating a fair amount of goalmouth action. Given the small head-to-head sample, which diminishes its predictive weight, the focus remains on current form and expected goals.

The standout betting angle lies in the over 3.5 goals market, with Betsson offering odds at 4.3, presenting a 34% edge as rated by the model. For those seeking higher returns, over 4.5 at 8.6 also holds value with a 33% edge. The model’s assessment suggests that while a tighter scoreline is probable, the high-edge odds on more goals should not be overlooked.

Kalamata

Form LLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #13xT #7xP/match #13Points #11

Key players

Ahmad Mendes MoreiraFxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
Jovanny David Bolívar AlvaradoFxG 0.16 · xT 0.04
Juan CataldiFxG 0.04 · xT 0.16

Volos

Form LLLDD

League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #8xP/match #9Points #8

Key players

Vasileios GrosdisCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
Maximiliano CombaFxG 0.11 · xT 0.04
Lazaros LamprouLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.24

Match prediction: Kalamata – Volos

Predicted score matrix

Volos →

Kalamata →

0–06.3%

0–18.1%

0–26.0%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.4%

1–08.0%

1–112.2%

1–28.4%

1–34.0%

1–4+1.9%

2–05.9%

2–18.3%

2–25.9%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.3%

3–02.7%

3–13.9%

3–22.7%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,40–1,42

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,547%

@1.58

Over 2,553%

@2.40EV+27%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Volos or draw (X2)63%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Volos or draw (X2)63%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Jan Carlos Hurtado Anchico to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Ahmad Mendes Moreira to score33%
Ioannis Bouzoukis to be booked27%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.516% probability@9.20BetssonEV+43%reference odds
Over 3.531% probability@4.50BetssonEV+40%reference odds
Over 3.531% probability@4.50Paddy PowerEV+40%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kalamata	X	2 · Volos
Betsafe	2.48	3.00	EV+ 25% 2.85
Betsson	2.48	3.05	EV+ 27% 2.88
Nordicbet	2.48	3.00	EV+ 25% 2.85
Paddy Power	2.38	3.00	EV+ 23% 2.80
Pinnacle	2.53	3.13	EV+ 28% 2.91

Odds updated 10 Sept, 22:28

Odds movement

10 %

40 %35 %

2.54 → 2.53

X+1 %

33 %28 %

3.09 → 3.13

2-1 %

35 %30 %

2.93 → 2.91

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kalamata

Volos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kalamata (3–6)

Volos (2–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kalamata

Volos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kalamata

Volos

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kalamata	Volos
Points	1	2
xPoints	2.8	3.2
xG per match	0.82	0.94
xGA per match	1.9	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.05	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.48	0.3

Playing style	Kalamata	Volos
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.3
Field tilt	0.38	0.57
xT per match	0.89	0.88
xTA per match	1.1	0.38
Won balls, offensive half	25	25
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.2
Entries into the box per match	9	9
Entries into the box against	16	8
Pass completion %	0.72	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.65
Passes per match	244	278
Passes against per match	293	322
Switches of play per match	19.2	25.9
Long balls per match	27	29

Set pieces	Kalamata	Volos
xG from free kicks	0.19	0.17
Corners per match	2	1.3
Corners against per match	7.2	5.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.75
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.62

Other	Kalamata	Volos
Throw-in control	0.69	0.71

The goalkeepers	Stefanos Stroungis (Kalamata)	Marios Siampanis (Volos)
Saves	8	3
Save %	100%	50%
xG prevented	100%	11%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kalamata vs Volos according to our model?

The model gives Volos a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kalamata 32%, draw 24%, Volos 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.