Yokohama F. Marinos vs Vissel Kobe: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

J1 League22 August 2026Nissan Stadium, Yokohama27°1,9 mm8 km/h

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Yokohama F. MarinosLow block & direct

Vissel KobeCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Vissel Kobe (41%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.44 (+7 %)

1 · Yokohama F. Marinos 28%X 31%41% Vissel Kobe · 2

28%

31%

41%

Analysis: Yokohama F. Marinos – Vissel Kobe

Anna Karlsson · 17 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Four wins to two in favor of Vissel Kobe over their last six meetings suggest a pattern that leans toward the visitors in this clash against Yokohama F. Marinos. This head-to-head record, while insightful, is a minor piece of a broader puzzle, especially considering the expected goals and model probabilities favor Kobe as well. The numbers suggest a close contest, with Vissel Kobe edging out slightly on expected goals and points.

Yokohama F. Marinos' defense, characterized by a low defensive profile and direct play, faces a stern test against Vissel Kobe's tactical preference for counter-attacks and crosses. With Kobe posting a league-low expected goals against (xGA) of 0.94 per match, Yokohama's attack could struggle to find the net, particularly in wet conditions. A forecast of 4.7 mm of rain brings the likelihood of a lower-scoring affair, and the weather conditions are factored into the model's conservative goal expectations.

Vissel Kobe, with a 41% probability of winning, are the model's favored side, although the draw, rated equally probable, could intrigue punters looking for value. Considering the most likely scorelines — 1-1, 0-1, and 0-0 — the model's lean towards a low-scoring match is evident. The under 2.5 goals market is particularly enticing, with Pinnacle offering odds of 1.763 and Betsafe slightly lower at 1.72, both representing a decent edge over the model-rated probability.

The sharpest play here is the under 2.5 goals, especially with the weather acting as an extra defender against offensive flair. For those inclined to back a result, the draw at odds of 3.44 with Pinnacle offers a tidy 7% edge, suggesting a cagey, tactical contest where neither side fully asserts dominance.

Yokohama F. Marinos

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #16xT #13xP/match #11Points #11

Key players

Kei ChinenFxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
Tomoki KondoRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.33
Taisei InoueRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06

Vissel Kobe

Form DDLWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #8xP/match #8Points #6

Key players

Yuya OsakoFxG 1.03 · xT -0.12
Yoshinori MutoRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.26
Katsuya NagatoFxG 0.02 · xT 0.00

Match prediction: Yokohama F. Marinos – Vissel Kobe

Predicted score matrix

Vissel Kobe →

Yokohama F. Marinos →

0–010.7%

0–112.0%

0–27.4%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.7%

1–113.7%

1–28.0%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.2%

2–05.9%

2–17.1%

2–24.3%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.1%

3–12.5%

3–21.5%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-112%
3.0-011%
4.1-011%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,07–1,20

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.76EV+4%

Over 2,540%

@2.07

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Vissel Kobe or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Vissel Kobe or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Yuya Osako to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Yuya Osako to score26%
Yuya Kuwasaki to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.44PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
Under 2.560% probability@1.76PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.560% probability@1.72BetsafeEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Yokohama F. Marinos	X	2 · Vissel Kobe
Betsafe	3.40	3.20	2.05
Betsson	3.40	3.20	2.05
Nordicbet	3.40	3.20	2.05
Pinnacle	3.49	EV+ 7% 3.44	2.09

Odds updated 16 Aug, 04:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos 2Draw 0Vissel Kobe 4

Goals: 7–10 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Vissel Kobe dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 6 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Yokohama F. Marinos

Vissel Kobe

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Yokohama F. Marinos (4–4)

Vissel Kobe (3–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Yokohama F. Marinos

Vissel Kobe

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Yokohama F. Marinos

Vissel Kobe

The teams in numbers

Performance	Yokohama F. Marinos	Vissel Kobe
Points	3	4
xPoints	2.7	2.9
xG per match	1.2	1.5
xGA per match	1.7	0.94
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.61
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.16

Playing style	Yokohama F. Marinos	Vissel Kobe
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.48	0.59
xT per match	0.85	1.1
xTA per match	1	0.8
Won balls, offensive half	23	36
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.37
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.38
Entries into the box per match	9	20
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.68	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.71
Passes per match	249	349
Passes against per match	314	255
Switches of play per match	16.3	26.8
Long balls per match	24	36

Set pieces	Yokohama F. Marinos	Vissel Kobe
xG from free kicks	0	0.08
Corners per match	2.4	4
Corners against per match	7.7	3.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.86

Other	Yokohama F. Marinos	Vissel Kobe
Throw-in control	0.63	0.81

The goalkeepers	Rubén Blanco Veiga (Yokohama F. Marinos)	Shuichi Gonda (Vissel Kobe)
Saves	6	4
Save %	60%	67%
xG prevented	22%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Yokohama F. Marinos vs Vissel Kobe according to our model?

The model gives Vissel Kobe a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Yokohama F. Marinos 28%, draw 31%, Vissel Kobe 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.