Norwegian Eliteserien14°24 km/h

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    SandefjordSandefjordPossession control
    vs
    StartStartLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Sandefjord (45%)Best value by the model: 2 · Start @ 3.51 (+4 %)

    Sandefjord vs Start · Norwegian Eliteserien

    1 · Sandefjord 45%X 25%30% Start · 2

    Analysis: Sandefjord – Start

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Sandefjord's possession control will be put to the test against Start's low defensive block and direct style. The home side sits slightly ahead in points with 20 compared to Start's 16, but expected points tell a different story. Start edges ahead with 25.7 xPoints to Sandefjord's 23.1, suggesting the visitors might not be as vulnerable as their points tally indicates.

    The most likely outcome, a 1-1 draw (12%), points to a tight contest. Sandefjord's expected goals of 1.63 surpass Start's 1.28, but Start's knack for creating high-quality opportunities, reflected in their 1.5 xG per match, could challenge Sandefjord's defense. Both teams average 1.9 xGA, indicating vulnerabilities at the back for both sides.

    While the model leans towards Sandefjord with a 45% win probability, the underdog might be where the smart money lies. The away win, priced at odds of 3.5 with both Betsson and Nordicbet, offers a 4% value edge. Betsafe lists the same outcome at 3.45 with a smaller 2% edge. This suggests a calculated risk for those drawn to value bets, but the rewards might not come easily.

    Given the styles and statistics, a narrow 2-1 victory for the hosts seems plausible (9% likelihood), alongside the possibility of a 1-0 win (another 9%). However, with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability that both teams will score, the defensive units may struggle to hold the line consistently.

    In betting terms, the sharpest angle may lie in the value behind an away win at favorable odds. The model's numbers underpin this opportunity, but one must tread carefully when betting against the home favorite.

    SandefjordSandefjord
    Form LWDDL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #12xP/match #15Points #13
    Key players
    • Evangelos PatoulidisRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.24
    • Jakob DunsbyLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.22
    • Zinedin SmajlovicCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
    StartStart
    Form LLWLW
    League ranking xG #10xGA #15xT #9xP/match #10Points #16
    Key players
    • Jesper Cornelius RasmussenFxG 0.40 · xT 0.10
    • Hakon LorentzenFxG 0.27 · xT 0.01
    • Tom StrannegardLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.28

    Match prediction: Sandefjord – Start

    Predicted score matrix

    Start →
    Sandefjord →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.8%
    0–16.7%
    0–24.5%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–08.5%
    1–111.7%
    1–27.3%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–07.2%
    2–19.3%
    2–25.9%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–03.9%
    3–15.0%
    3–23.2%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–02.3%
    4+–12.9%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,63–1,28
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @2.30EV+1%
    Over 2,556%
    @1.62

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sandefjord to win45%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.74

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sandefjord to win45%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Jakob Vester Nielsen to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Jakob Vester Nielsen to score27%
    • Erlend Segberg to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Start30% probability@3.51PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
    • 2 · Start30% probability@3.50BetssonEV+4%reference odds
    • 2 · Start30% probability@3.50NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · SandefjordX2 · Start
    Betsafe2.023.65
    EV+ 2%
    3.45
    Betsson2.053.70
    EV+ 4%
    3.50
    Nordicbet2.053.70
    EV+ 4%
    3.50
    Pinnacle2.023.70
    EV+ 4%
    3.51

    Odds updated 18 Sept, 12:19

    Odds movement

    1-5 %
    48 %43 %

    2.12 → 2.02

    X+7 %
    29 %24 %

    3.46 → 3.70

    2+1 %
    30 %25 %

    3.47 → 3.51

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sandefjord
    Start
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sandefjord (18–27)
    Start (22–41)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sandefjord
    Xander Lambrix: 228 passningar, xT 0.36LambrixSander Risan Mork: 200 passningar, xT 0.36MorkVetle Walle Egeli: 182 passningar, xT 0.46EgeliElias Hadaya: 163 passningar, xT 0.09HadayaFredrik Carson Pedersen: 154 passningar, xT 0.17PedersenRasmus Holten: 152 passningar, xT 0.29HoltenTobias Borchgrevink Børkeeiet: 148 passningar, xT 0.17BørkeeietHakon Krogelien: 114 passningar, xT 0.25KrogelienJakob Dunsby: 93 passningar, xT 0.48DunsbyEdvard Sundbø Pettersen: 86 passningar, xT 0.17PettersenEvangelos Patoulidis: 80 passningar, xT 0.41Patoulidis
    Start
    Jens Berland Husebo: 244 passningar, xT 0.39HuseboErlend Dahl Reitan: 173 passningar, xT 0.78ReitanErlend Segberg: 167 passningar, xT 0.22SegbergAltin Ujkani: 151 passningar, xT 0.31UjkaniOusmane Diallo Toure: 141 passningar, xT 0.46ToureStève Regis Mvoué: 108 passningar, xT 0.22MvouéHakon Lorentzen: 102 passningar, xT 0.34LorentzenMikael Ugland: 99 passningar, xT 0.05UglandFilip Manojlović: 91 passningar, xT 0.1ManojlovićJesper Cornelius Rasmussen: 74 passningar, xT 0.49RasmussenJohn Olav Norheim: 72 passningar, xT 0.26Norheim
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sandefjord
    Xander Lambrix: 228 passningar, xT 0.36LambrixSander Risan Mork: 200 passningar, xT 0.36MorkVetle Walle Egeli: 182 passningar, xT 0.46EgeliElias Hadaya: 163 passningar, xT 0.09HadayaFredrik Carson Pedersen: 154 passningar, xT 0.17PedersenRasmus Holten: 152 passningar, xT 0.29HoltenTobias Borchgrevink Børkeeiet: 148 passningar, xT 0.17BørkeeietHakon Krogelien: 114 passningar, xT 0.25KrogelienJakob Dunsby: 93 passningar, xT 0.48DunsbyEdvard Sundbø Pettersen: 86 passningar, xT 0.17PettersenEvangelos Patoulidis: 80 passningar, xT 0.41Patoulidis
    Start
    Jens Berland Husebo: 244 passningar, xT 0.39HuseboErlend Dahl Reitan: 173 passningar, xT 0.78ReitanErlend Segberg: 167 passningar, xT 0.22SegbergAltin Ujkani: 151 passningar, xT 0.31UjkaniOusmane Diallo Toure: 141 passningar, xT 0.46ToureStève Regis Mvoué: 108 passningar, xT 0.22MvouéHakon Lorentzen: 102 passningar, xT 0.34LorentzenMikael Ugland: 99 passningar, xT 0.05UglandFilip Manojlović: 91 passningar, xT 0.1ManojlovićJesper Cornelius Rasmussen: 74 passningar, xT 0.49RasmussenJohn Olav Norheim: 72 passningar, xT 0.26Norheim

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSandefjordStart
    Points2016
    xPoints23.125.7
    xG per match1.21.5
    xGA per match1.91.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.32
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.280.32
    Playing styleSandefjordStart
    Build-up efficiency0.290.34
    Field tilt0.40.32
    xT per match0.941.1
    xTA per match1.41.4
    Won balls, offensive half2430
    Pressing intensity0.250.25
    Pressing efficiency0.280.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.29
    Entries into the box per match1214
    Entries into the box against1917
    Pass completion %0.780.69
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.66
    Passes per match390284
    Passes against per match386421
    Switches of play per match28.322.9
    Long balls per match3835
    Set piecesSandefjordStart
    xG from free kicks0.010.1
    Corners per match5.54.3
    Corners against per match6.55.4
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.340.48
    First touch, defensive corners %0.610.54
    OtherSandefjordStart
    Throw-in control0.690.68
    The goalkeepersElias Hadaya (Sandefjord)Jacob Pryts (Start)
    Saves7241
    Save %73%53%
    xG prevented55%34%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sandefjord
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Start
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sandefjord vs Start according to our model?

    The model gives Sandefjord a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sandefjord 45%, draw 25%, Start 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.