Norwegian Eliteserien13°14,2 mm41 km/h

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    VikingVikingPossession & high press
    vs
    LillestrømLillestrømPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Viking (61%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.40 (+30 %)

    Viking vs Lillestrøm · Norwegian Eliteserien

    1 · Viking 61%X 20%18% Lillestrøm · 2

    Analysis: Viking – Lillestrøm

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    A striking 61% win probability for Viking speaks volumes about the anticipated outcome of their clash with Lillestrøm. The hosts, known for their commanding home presence, boast a 65% win rate on home soil across 84 matches. This, paired with an impressive nine-match scoring streak in the league, suggests a clear advantage for the home side. Their expected goals (xG) of 1.99 further underscores this dominion, contrasting sharply with Lillestrøm's 1.19.

    While the small head-to-head sample of just three games since 2021 shows Viking's edge with two wins to Lillestrøm's one, it's the broader form and attacking prowess that paint a more vivid picture. Viking's xG per match at 2.3 dwarfs the visitors' 1.6, and their defensive metrics show resilience with xGA of 1.3 compared to Lillestrøm's 1.5. The match could very well lean towards a 2-1 Viking victory, aligning with the model's most likely scorelines.

    Yet, the value play lies in an unexpected angle. Despite a high 62% model estimate for over 2.5 goals, betting markets offer lucrative odds on the contrary. With a notable 38% model-rated chance, taking under 2.5 goals at odds of 3.4 with Nordicbet presents a compelling edge.

    VikingViking
    Form WLWDW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #2xP/match #2Points #2
    Key players
    • Zlatko TripicLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.70
    • Edvin AustboLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.19
    • Simen Kvia EgeskogFxG 0.20 · xT 0.03
    LillestrømLillestrøm
    Form LDLWW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #11xP/match #7Points #5
    Key players
    • Ruben GabrielsenCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
    • Lars RangerRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.15
    • Salieu DrammehRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.22

    Match prediction: Viking – Lillestrøm

    Predicted score matrix

    Lillestrøm →
    Viking →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.4%
    0–14.6%
    0–22.9%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–08.0%
    1–110.1%
    1–25.9%
    1–32.3%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.2%
    2–19.8%
    2–25.8%
    2–32.3%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–05.5%
    3–16.5%
    3–23.9%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–04.3%
    4+–15.1%
    4+–23.1%
    4+–31.2%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.2-08%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.3-17%
    Expected goals
    1,99–1,19
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,538%
    @3.40EV+26%
    Over 2,562%
    @1.33

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Viking to win61%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.10

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Viking to win61%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Peter Buch Christiansen to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Peter Buch Christiansen to score29%
    • Kevin Martin Krygård to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.538% probability@3.40NordicbetEV+30%reference odds
    • Under 1.517% probability@7.60NordicbetEV+29%reference odds
    • Under 2.538% probability@3.35BetssonEV+28%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · VikingX2 · Lillestrøm
    Betsafe1.424.80
    EV+ 25%
    6.80
    Betsson1.434.85
    EV+ 27%
    6.90
    Nordicbet1.434.85
    EV+ 27%
    6.90
    Pinnacle1.41
    EV+ 8%
    5.30
    EV+ 16%
    6.30

    Odds updated 18 Sept, 09:38

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Viking win since 14 September — the odds have shortened from 1.50 to 1.41 (−6%).

    1-6 %
    68 %63 %

    1.50 → 1.41

    X+10 %
    21 %16 %

    4.81 → 5.30

    2+13 %
    18 %13 %

    5.56 → 6.30

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    3 matches
    Viking 2Draw 0Lillestrøm 1
    Goals: 7–6 (⌀ 4,3)

    Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

    Key facts

    • Viking FK have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    • Viking FK win 65% of their home matches all-time (84 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Viking
    Lillestrøm
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Viking (51–20)
    Lillestrøm (28–26)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Viking
    Gianni Stensness: 241 passningar, xT 0.58StensnessHenrik Heggheim: 169 passningar, xT 0.4HeggheimKristoffer Askildsen: 155 passningar, xT 0.96AskildsenZlatko Tripic: 149 passningar, xT 3.47TripicVetle Auklend: 145 passningar, xT 0.51AuklendJoe Bell: 113 passningar, xT 0.11BellArild Ostbo: 109 passningar, xT 0.2OstboHenrik Falchener: 106 passningar, xT 0.11FalchenerTobias Moi: 83 passningar, xT 0.43MoiJesper Norman Daland: 70 passningar, xT -0.08DalandHerman Haugen: 67 passningar, xT 0.34Haugen
    Lillestrøm
    Stian Kristiansen: 231 passningar, xT 0.43KristiansenRuben Gabrielsen: 207 passningar, xT 0.3GabrielsenYlldren Ibrahimaj: 202 passningar, xT 0.24IbrahimajFrederik Elkaer: 195 passningar, xT 0.61ElkaerLars Ranger: 162 passningar, xT 0.74RangerKevin Krygard: 123 passningar, xT -0.06KrygardPontus Jacob Ragne Dahlberg: 118 passningar, xT 0.34DahlbergGustav Nyheim: 90 passningar, xT 0.09NyheimSander Moen Foss: 81 passningar, xT 0.11FossEspen Garnas: 71 passningar, xT 0.09GarnasVladimiro Etson António Félix: 66 passningar, xT 0.3Félix
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Viking
    Gianni Stensness: 241 passningar, xT 0.58StensnessHenrik Heggheim: 169 passningar, xT 0.4HeggheimKristoffer Askildsen: 155 passningar, xT 0.96AskildsenZlatko Tripic: 149 passningar, xT 3.47TripicVetle Auklend: 145 passningar, xT 0.51AuklendJoe Bell: 113 passningar, xT 0.11BellArild Ostbo: 109 passningar, xT 0.2OstboHenrik Falchener: 106 passningar, xT 0.11FalchenerTobias Moi: 83 passningar, xT 0.43MoiJesper Norman Daland: 70 passningar, xT -0.08DalandHerman Haugen: 67 passningar, xT 0.34Haugen
    Lillestrøm
    Stian Kristiansen: 231 passningar, xT 0.43KristiansenRuben Gabrielsen: 207 passningar, xT 0.3GabrielsenYlldren Ibrahimaj: 202 passningar, xT 0.24IbrahimajFrederik Elkaer: 195 passningar, xT 0.61ElkaerLars Ranger: 162 passningar, xT 0.74RangerKevin Krygard: 123 passningar, xT -0.06KrygardPontus Jacob Ragne Dahlberg: 118 passningar, xT 0.34DahlbergGustav Nyheim: 90 passningar, xT 0.09NyheimSander Moen Foss: 81 passningar, xT 0.11FossEspen Garnas: 71 passningar, xT 0.09GarnasVladimiro Etson António Félix: 66 passningar, xT 0.3Félix

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVikingLillestrøm
    Points4732
    xPoints33.827.8
    xG per match2.31.6
    xGA per match1.31.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.560.22
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.170.35
    Playing styleVikingLillestrøm
    Build-up efficiency0.340.33
    Field tilt0.610.48
    xT per match1.70.96
    xTA per match0.961
    Won balls, offensive half3025
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.290.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.27
    Entries into the box per match1714
    Entries into the box against1215
    Pass completion %0.750.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.72
    Passes per match377399
    Passes against per match350377
    Switches of play per match28.426.3
    Long balls per match3733
    Set piecesVikingLillestrøm
    xG from free kicks0.080.1
    Corners per match75.1
    Corners against per match5.45.5
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.360.43
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.69
    OtherVikingLillestrøm
    Throw-in control0.740.75
    The goalkeepersArild Ostbo (Viking)Pontus Jacob Ragne Dahlberg (Lillestrøm)
    Saves2473
    Save %75%75%
    xG prevented76%59%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Viking
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Lillestrøm
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Viking vs Lillestrøm according to our model?

    The model gives Viking a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viking 61%, draw 20%, Lillestrøm 18%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.