Norwegian Eliteserien14°3,5 mm24 km/h

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    SarpsborgSarpsborgLow block & direct
    vs
    KFUMKFUMLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Sarpsborg (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · KFUM @ 5.71 (+30 %)

    Sarpsborg vs KFUM · Norwegian Eliteserien

    1 · Sarpsborg 50%X 27%23% KFUM · 2

    Analysis: Sarpsborg – KFUM

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Sarpsborg enters the clash with KFUM as the probabilistic favorite, buoyed by a 50% win likelihood according to the model. Their expected goals advantage at 1.87 versus 1.04 for the visitors outlines a match that might just reflect the hosts' edge in quality. Both teams share a low defense and direct style of play, which, combined with expected rain, could dampen goal output slightly, though the model still suggests a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

    The historical data gives Sarpsborg a slight edge, having won three out of five encounters since 2021, but the sample is small and less telling than current form. The home side's xPoints of 28.7 and xG per match of 1.4 underline their offensive potency relative to KFUM’s 24.1 and 1.1, respectively. Despite both teams’ similar tactical approaches, Sarpsborg's efficiency in execution is more pronounced.

    The most probable scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 suggest a tight affair, with Sarpsborg's defensive frailties (xGA of 1.5) potentially allowing KFUM chances. Yet, KFUM's even shakier backline (xGA of 1.8) might provide the hosts with enough room to exploit. The numbers paint a picture of a narrow Sarpsborg victory, likely a restrained 1-0 or 2-1 outcome, leaning just over the 2.5 goal threshold.

    Interestingly, there is a value angle for the bold with KFUM’s away win priced at 5.0 by Betsson and Nordicbet, and slightly less by Betsafe at 4.95. The model rates this outcome at a 23% probability, offering a notable 14% edge at Betsson and Nordicbet. For those betting against the grain, this underdog option carries potential reward.

    SarpsborgSarpsborg
    Form LLDDD
    League ranking xG #11xGA #5xT #7xP/match #6Points #9
    Key players
    • Sondre SorliRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.12
    • Aimar SherCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
    • Anders HiimLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
    KFUMKFUM
    Form WDLLW
    League ranking xG #16xGA #10xT #15xP/match #13Points #12
    Key players
    • Teodor Berg HaltvikFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
    • Magnus Wolff EikremFxG 0.14 · xT 0.29
    • Bilal NjieLWxG 0.35 · xT 0.08

    Match prediction: Sarpsborg – KFUM

    Predicted score matrix

    KFUM →
    Sarpsborg →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.8%
    0–15.4%
    0–23.0%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–09.9%
    1–110.9%
    1–25.5%
    1–31.9%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.5%
    2–19.9%
    2–25.1%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–05.9%
    3–16.2%
    3–23.2%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–04.2%
    4+–14.4%
    4+–22.3%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-010%
    5. 5.3-16%
    Expected goals
    1,87–1,04
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,545%
    @2.40EV+5%
    Over 2,555%
    @1.58

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sarpsborg to win50%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    46%

    Fair odds

    2.15

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sarpsborg to win50%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Daniel Seland Karlsbakk to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Daniel Seland Karlsbakk to score29%
    • Robin Gravli Rasch to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · KFUM23% probability@5.71PinnacleEV+30%reference odds
    • 2 · KFUM23% probability@5.50BetssonEV+25%reference odds
    • 2 · KFUM23% probability@5.50NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · SarpsborgX2 · KFUM
    Betsafe1.60
    EV+ 10%
    4.10
    EV+ 24%
    5.45
    Betsson1.60
    EV+ 11%
    4.15
    EV+ 25%
    5.50
    Nordicbet1.60
    EV+ 11%
    4.15
    EV+ 25%
    5.50
    Pinnacle1.60
    EV+ 14%
    4.26
    EV+ 30%
    5.71

    Odds updated 18 Sept, 11:37

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    62 %57 %

    1.61 → 1.60

    X+2 %
    25 %20 %

    4.19 → 4.26

    2+11 %
    20 %15 %

    5.14 → 5.71

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Sarpsborg 3Draw 0KFUM 2
    Goals: 7–6 (⌀ 2,6)

    Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sarpsborg
    KFUM
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sarpsborg (23–26)
    KFUM (22–34)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sarpsborg
    Anders Hiim: 260 passningar, xT 0.82HiimAimar Sher: 257 passningar, xT 0.35SherMarius Lode: 245 passningar, xT 0.35LodeBjørn Inge Utvik: 179 passningar, xT 0.28UtvikClaus Niyukuri: 176 passningar, xT 0.31NiyukuriOlaus Jair Skarsem: 167 passningar, xT 0.65SkarsemSander Christiansen: 142 passningar, xT 0.15ChristiansenLeander Oy: 108 passningar, xT 0.4OyVictor Emanuel Halvorsen: 80 passningar, xT 0.18HalvorsenSondre Sorli: 78 passningar, xT 0.61SorliDaniel Karlsbakk: 58 passningar, xT -0.03Karlsbakk
    KFUM
    Brage Skaret: 158 passningar, xT 0.22SkaretDaniel Schneider: 157 passningar, xT 0.22SchneiderJonas Lange Hjorth: 139 passningar, xT 0.06HjorthMartin Tangen Vinjor: 131 passningar, xT 0.04VinjorHåkon Røsten: 126 passningar, xT 0.25RøstenHakon Helland Hoseth: 119 passningar, xT 0.07HosethJacob Blixt Flaten: 89 passningar, xT 0.21FlatenFredrik Tobias Berglie: 83 passningar, xT 0.17BerglieEirik Saunes: 72 passningar, xT 0.16SaunesRasmus Eggen Vinge: 60 passningar, xT 0.31VingeBilal Njie: 51 passningar, xT 0.44Njie
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sarpsborg
    Anders Hiim: 260 passningar, xT 0.82HiimAimar Sher: 257 passningar, xT 0.35SherMarius Lode: 245 passningar, xT 0.35LodeBjørn Inge Utvik: 179 passningar, xT 0.28UtvikClaus Niyukuri: 176 passningar, xT 0.31NiyukuriOlaus Jair Skarsem: 167 passningar, xT 0.65SkarsemSander Christiansen: 142 passningar, xT 0.15ChristiansenLeander Oy: 108 passningar, xT 0.4OyVictor Emanuel Halvorsen: 80 passningar, xT 0.18HalvorsenSondre Sorli: 78 passningar, xT 0.61SorliDaniel Karlsbakk: 58 passningar, xT -0.03Karlsbakk
    KFUM
    Brage Skaret: 158 passningar, xT 0.22SkaretDaniel Schneider: 157 passningar, xT 0.22SchneiderJonas Lange Hjorth: 139 passningar, xT 0.06HjorthMartin Tangen Vinjor: 131 passningar, xT 0.04VinjorHåkon Røsten: 126 passningar, xT 0.25RøstenHakon Helland Hoseth: 119 passningar, xT 0.07HosethJacob Blixt Flaten: 89 passningar, xT 0.21FlatenFredrik Tobias Berglie: 83 passningar, xT 0.17BerglieEirik Saunes: 72 passningar, xT 0.16SaunesRasmus Eggen Vinge: 60 passningar, xT 0.31VingeBilal Njie: 51 passningar, xT 0.44Njie

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSarpsborgKFUM
    Points2522
    xPoints28.724.1
    xG per match1.41.1
    xGA per match1.51.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.150.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.26
    Playing styleSarpsborgKFUM
    Build-up efficiency0.360.35
    Field tilt0.380.4
    xT per match1.10.9
    xTA per match1.21.2
    Won balls, offensive half2223
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.260.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.26
    Entries into the box per match1512
    Entries into the box against1916
    Pass completion %0.730.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.7
    Passes per match323324
    Passes against per match434438
    Switches of play per match27.519.5
    Long balls per match3328
    Set piecesSarpsborgKFUM
    xG from free kicks0.040.01
    Corners per match4.84.2
    Corners against per match5.45.2
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.470.35
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.56
    OtherSarpsborgKFUM
    Throw-in control0.720.72
    The goalkeepersLeander Oy (Sarpsborg)Emil Ødegaard (KFUM)
    Saves3930
    Save %74%71%
    xG prevented47%60%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sarpsborg
    Fixtures, form & tips
    KFUM
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sarpsborg vs KFUM according to our model?

    The model gives Sarpsborg a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sarpsborg 50%, draw 27%, KFUM 23%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.