Lech Poznań vs Piast Gliwice: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Ekstraklasa9 August 202620°13 km/h

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Lech Poznań

3–0

Piast Gliwice

The model's lean: 1 · Lech Poznań (66%)

1 · Lech Poznań 66%X 18%16% Piast Gliwice · 2

66%

18%

16%

Final score

3 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Lech Poznań 66% · Draw 18% · Piast Gliwice 16%

Match prediction: Lech Poznań – Piast Gliwice

Predicted score matrix

Piast Gliwice →

Lech Poznań →

0–03.4%

0–13.4%

0–22.0%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.3%

1–07.2%

1–18.6%

1–24.7%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.6%

2–08.6%

2–19.7%

2–25.5%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.7%

3–06.6%

3–17.5%

3–24.2%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.6%

4+–06.6%

4+–17.4%

4+–24.2%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-19%
3.2-09%
4.3-17%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

2,31–1,13

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

219%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,533%

–

Over 2,567%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lech Poznań to win66%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Lech Poznań to win66%
Over 2.5 goals67%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals67%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Lech Poznań66% probability@2.51PinnacleEV+66%

Bookmaker	1 · Lech Poznań	X	2 · Piast Gliwice
Pinnacle	EV+ 66% 2.51	3.77	2.56

Odds updated 9 Aug, 04:51

Odds movement

1+2 %

41 %36 %

2.47 → 2.51

X+5 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.77

2-2 %

39 %34 %

2.62 → 2.56

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 02/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lech Poznań vs Piast Gliwice according to our model?

The model gives Lech Poznań a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lech Poznań 66%, draw 18%, Piast Gliwice 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.