KS Cracovia vs Raków Częstochowa: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Ekstraklasa16 August 202627°25 km/h

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KS Cracovia

2–1

Raków Częstochowa

The model's lean: 2 · Raków Częstochowa (38%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.16 (+6 %)

1 · KS Cracovia 33%X 29%38% Raków Częstochowa · 2

33%

29%

38%

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: KS Cracovia 33% · Draw 29% · Raków Częstochowa 38%

Match prediction: KS Cracovia – Raków Częstochowa

Predicted score matrix

Raków Częstochowa →

KS Cracovia →

0–07.5%

0–19.4%

0–26.6%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.4%

1–08.9%

1–112.8%

1–28.4%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.9%

2–18.0%

2–25.4%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.5%

3–13.4%

3–22.3%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,28–1,35

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.71

Over 2,549%

@2.16EV+6%

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Raków Częstochowa or draw (X2)65%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Raków Częstochowa or draw (X2)65%
Under 2.5 goals51%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.549% probability@2.16PinnacleEV+6%
2 · Raków Częstochowa38% probability@2.66PinnacleEV+1%

Bookmaker	1 · KS Cracovia	X	2 · Raków Częstochowa
Pinnacle	2.81	3.18	EV+ 1% 2.66

Odds updated 15 Aug, 15:57

Odds movement

1-1 %

36 %31 %

2.84 → 2.81

X-1 %

32 %27 %

3.20 → 3.18

2+5 %

39 %34 %

2.54 → 2.66

Over 2,5+4 %

47 %42 %

2.07 → 2.16

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins KS Cracovia vs Raków Częstochowa according to our model?

The model gives Raków Częstochowa a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: KS Cracovia 33%, draw 29%, Raków Częstochowa 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.