Pogoń Szczecin vs Motor Lublin: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Ekstraklasa8 August 202618°8 km/h

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Pogoń Szczecin

3–1

Motor Lublin

The model's lean: 1 · Pogoń Szczecin (55%)

1 · Pogoń Szczecin 55%X 23%22% Motor Lublin · 2

55%

23%

22%

Final score

3 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Pogoń Szczecin 55% · Draw 23% · Motor Lublin 22%

Match prediction: Pogoń Szczecin – Motor Lublin

Predicted score matrix

Motor Lublin →

Pogoń Szczecin →

0–04.5%

0–15.1%

0–23.4%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.6%

1–07.7%

1–110.5%

1–26.5%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.6%

2–19.6%

2–26.1%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–04.8%

3–16.1%

3–23.9%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.7%

4+–03.5%

4+–14.4%

4+–22.8%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.1-08%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,89–1,27

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.26

Over 2,561%

@1.67EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Pogoń Szczecin to win55%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Pogoń Szczecin to win55%
Over 2.5 goals61%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals61%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Pogoń Szczecin55% probability@2.07PinnacleEV+14%
Over 2.561% probability@1.67PinnacleEV+2%

Bookmaker	1 · Pogoń Szczecin	X	2 · Motor Lublin
Pinnacle	EV+ 14% 2.07	3.48	3.66

Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:08

Odds movement

1+3 %

49 %44 %

2.01 → 2.07

X+5 %

30 %25 %

3.30 → 3.48

2-4 %

28 %23 %

3.83 → 3.66

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pogoń Szczecin vs Motor Lublin according to our model?

The model gives Pogoń Szczecin a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pogoń Szczecin 55%, draw 23%, Motor Lublin 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.